April 11, 2023

Sitrep for Apr. 10-11 (as of 08:00 a.m.) 

The Situation on the Frontline

Denys Pushylin, acting head of the so-called DPR, visited Bakhmut — a video with him was geolocated near the Bakhmut City Administration. Since it is difficult to imagine that he came directly to the line of contact, we can conclude that this line now runs further to the west (closer to the railway). Also, in his video, Pushylin promised to rebuild Bakhmut and said that Russian forces have not been able to capture Marinka yet, as Ukraine is sending more and more reserves there.

There was a video filmed near the railway station in Bakhmut, next to which the main fighting is taking place. It shows a captured T-80BVM tank, which the AFU had to abandon because it got stuck in the mud while driving under a bridge. Sometime later, the tank was hit with a shell.

The 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the AFU claimed they had shot down a Russian Mil Mi-24 attack helicopter in the Avdiivka direction. Around the same time, a post appeared in the pro-Russian Telegram channel Fighterbomber (associated with the Russian Air Force) expressing sorrow for a Russian helicopter crew with a photo of a Kamov Ka-52 attack helicopter attached. It is not yet known whether these pieces of news refer to the same incident or two different ones.

On Apr. 9, a railway line in Sloviansk was attacked using some kind of powerful ammunition.

Another POW exchange was arranged. 100 men returned to the Ukrainian side, and 106 men returned to the Russian side.

Videos showing BM-30 Smerch and BM-27 Uragan self-propelled multiple rocket launchers in action were published. It is worth mentioning that for the past few months, such videos were very scarce, which can possibly indicate the lack of ammunition.

Yury Evich, a military medic and veteran of the war in the Donbas, gave a lecture on tactical medicine for Rosgvardia [the National Guard of Russia] employees on Sakhalin. During the lecture, he criticized the state of medicine in the Russian Armed Forces. After an attendee’s complaint, a misdemeanor charge for “discrediting the Armed Forces” was initiated against Evich.

Deliveries of Western Military Equipment

Germany has updated the information on the military aid package for Ukraine: the number of transferred armored engineer vehicles raised from 3 to 4, Zetros trucks — from 52 to 60, mobile antenna mast systems — from 34 to 42, reconnaissance drones — from 26 to 34, 40mm rounds — from 60 to 83.5 thousand.

Negotiations between Ukraine and Denmark on the transfer of 100 Leopard 1 tanks are underway.

Negotiations with Bulgaria on the transfer of Mikoyan MiG-29 fighter jets are also underway. Bulgaria has 16 of these aircraft, six of which are operational.

Andrey Kartapolov, former Deputy Minister of Defense of Russia, now a State Duma [lower house of the Federal Assembly of Russia] member, on Mar. 31 denied the possibility of a digital serving of draft notices as well as via registered mail, saying that this would have no legal effect.

And yet, on Apr. 10, he stated that, in accordance with the new amendments to the law on military service, digital draft notices will have the same legal power as regular draft notices issued by military commissariats [enlistment offices] on paper.

New liability measures are also being introduced for draft dodgers: a ban on traveling abroad, a ban on real estate transactions, and a prohibition on driving a vehicle.

If the second wave of mobilization takes place this year, it is likely to be more effective than the first one.

Victory Day Parades [traditionally held in Russia on May 9] have been canceled in the Kursk and Belgorod regions. We attribute this to the fact that personnel and equipment are busy at the frontlines, and not enough of them can be available for the parade in every region.