Sitrep for Sept. 20–22, 2023 (as of 8 a.m.)

Based on new video footage showing Ukrainian armored vehicles beyond a “dragon’s teeth” line of concrete pyramids, it can be concluded that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have achieved a local breach of the Surovikin line on the Zaporizhzhia axis. Marder 1A3 infantry fighting vehicles and Stryker armored personnel carriers were observed advancing along a dirt road toward the village of Verbove, deploying smoke screens and disembarking troops near Russian positions, before coming under Russian artillery fire. Another video from that area shows an M113 APC arriving to evacuate Ukrainian troops from the battlefield. It appears that the AFU were unable to establish a foothold in the area. The challenge with crossing fortified defensive...

Sitrep for Sept. 18–20, 2023 (as of 11 a.m.)

Pro-Russian Telegram channels published a video, geolocated near the western outskirts of the village of Verbove showing fighting on the Zaporizhzhia axis. A Ukrainian armored fighting vehicle is seen transporting troops to Russian positions while firing its canon. After disembarking the soldiers, it leaves, and Ukrainian servicemen take positions in forest lines and engage in battle with Russian forces. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have not managed to advance beyond anti-tank ditches and concrete pyramids yet, but heavy fighting continues in this area.

Sitrep for Sept. 15–18, 2023 (as of 10:30 a.m.)

Contrary to the prevailing belief that the Ukrainian offensive would stall with the onset of the muddy season, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stated, in a recent interview with the American television channel CBS, that the change in weather would not impede the progress of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Sitrep for Sept. 13–15, 2023 (as of 8 a.m.)

In recent days, pro-Russian Telegram channels have started posting numerous alarming, and at times panic-inducing, messages about the possible loss of the villages of Klishchiivka and Andriivka in the Bakhmut direction, located south of the town of Bakhmut.

Sitrep for Sept. 11–13, 2023 (as of 8:30 a.m.)

Ukrainian milblogger Tatarigami has marked recent traces of artillery strikes on satellite images of Novoprokopivka in the Orikhiv direction, south of Robotyne dated Sept. 10 noting that the scorch marks were not present on satellite images dated Sept. 6. Such traces indicate active fighting on the territory of the village, which, in turn, is a good indication of Ukrainian progress in this area over the past two days.

Sitrep for Sept. 8–11, 2023 (as of 11 a.m.)

The opposition-leaning To Be Or media project has published a 3D visualization, proving that the reflections on the car roofs would be identical whether the missile flew from the northwest, on a trajectory almost parallel to the ground, or from the southeast, at an angle of about 45 degrees. However, the reflection of the missile in both these cases would only match if the length of the missile coming from the southeast would have been many times larger than what is realistically possible. Preliminary estimates based on the cars and grid modeled in the visualization suggest that the length of a hypothetical missile coming from the southeast would need to be 40 to 50 meters, similar to a Boeing 737-900, with the diameter of such...

Sitrep for Sept. 7–8, 2023 (as of 9 a.m.)

One competing theory regarding the Sept. 6 Kostiantynivka missile strike hinges on the projectile’s flight path. Some analysts suggest that the missile could have been launched from Russian positions, following a high arc trajectory, before descending vertically on its target in its terminal phase. However, we find that missiles are seldom programmed to follow such trajectories, primarily because a missile spending a large amount of time flying at high altitudes is more easily detected by Ukrainian radars.

Sitrep for Sept. 6–7, 2023 (as of 9 a.m.)

On Sept. 6, a missile strike rocked Kostiantynivka, a town in the Donetsk region under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The missile hit a bustling city market at 2:04 p.m. local time, leaving 16 dead and 33 injured. Photos and videos of the aftermath of the strike have been circulated by various media outlets worldwide.

Sitrep for Sept. 5–6, 2023 (as of 8:30 a.m.)

On the Zaporizhzhia axis, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have launched an offensive along the Novodonetske-Novomaiorske line, east of Staromlynivka; the same direction the Ukrainians pursued after liberating Urozhaine. Oleksandr Khodakovskyi, a former field commander in the "DPR" who now commands a military unit of Russia’s National Guard in the annexed "republic," reported that over the past few days, the AFU had conducted intensive artillery preparatory bombardments, significantly undermining the effectiveness of the minefields; while restoring them amidst nearly incessant fire proved unfeasible. Subsequently, Ukrainian forces were able to bring in armored vehicles, deploy troops close to Russian positions around Novodonetske and engage...

Sitrep for Sept. 4–5, 2023 (as of 9 a.m.)

Despite fighting raging on in both the Bakhmut and Zaporizhzhia directions, neither side has made any further progress. After analyzing the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine’s briefing, BBC News Russian journalists have likewise concluded that there have been very few, if any, changes on the frontline.