Sitrep for Oct. 19-22, 2026 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
In the Lyman direction, where the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been conducting Operation Vivaldi to clear the Shandryholove salient, fighting continues around the Zherebets River. There have been no new advances in this sector so far, but we expect the AFU to try to secure more advantageous positions by establishing a foothold along a line running through the villages of Makiivka, Balka Zhuravka (known as Nevske until September 2024), Terny, Yampolivka, and Zarichne. These positions are important because they are separated from the next line of villages—Chervonopopivka, Ploshchanka, and Zhytlivka—as well as the town of Kreminna, by open fields with scattered tree lines. By taking these positions, the AFU would be able to push Russian...
Sitrep for Oct. 15-19, 2026 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
On Oct. 16, the Russian Ministry of Defense released a report on Putin’s visit to an auxiliary headquarters of the joint military grouping of the Russian Armed Forces, where he was briefed on the RuAF’s "successes" along the frontline. In particular, it was announced that the town of Dobropillia in the Donetsk region had been "liberated." Although fighting for the town began back in the summer, when assault troops began actively infiltrating it from the villages of Hannivka and Dobropillia, as well as Vodianske, Russian forces have yet to capture even a single part of the town. Nevertheless, as proof of its capture, the Russian MoD showed an AI-generated video—even though the military could clearly have sent assault troops into the town...
Sitrep for Oct. 12-15, 2026 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
In the Oleksandrivka direction, the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue their offensive. After the Russian Armed Forces command redeployed units of the 90th Tank Division from this direction to the Kostiantynivka direction and elements of the 41st Combined Arms Army to the Dobropillia direction, Russian defensive positions at the junction of the Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions weakened. The AFU thus took advantage of the fact that Russian forces had made the Sloviansk–Kramatorsk, Dobropillia, and Kostiantynivka directions their priorities and launched counteroffensive operations in areas that were less of a priority for the RuAF.
Sitrep for Oct. 5-12, 2026 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
In the Oleksandrivka direction, the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue their offensive operations and, according to Ukrainian military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets, have reestablished the Velyka Novosilka direction. At present, the village of Velyka Novosilka lies deep in the Russian rear. Ukrainian forces previously crossed the Mokri Yaly River and advanced near the village of Komar, intending to push toward Velyka Novosilka if successful. Mashovets’s report hints that the advance has already begun, but this cannot yet be confirmed.
Sitrep for Oct. 1-5, 2026 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
The pro-Russian Slivochnyi Kapriz [Creamy Caprice] project published a video allegedly filmed near the railway station in the village of Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi and, based on it, claimed that Russian forces had advanced. However, the station building in the opening shots, which show a strike hitting the building, appears to be much more damaged than in the subsequent shots, which show soldiers against the backdrop of the building. Thus, the footage is either old or, as In Factum believes, AI-generated. We tend to agree, as the soldiers’ facial expressions also look unnatural. Slivochnyi Kapriz, meanwhile, rushed to report Russian gains and did not correct the post, even though all the posts in the original source had been deleted.
Sitrep for Sept. 28-Oct. 1, 2026 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
DeepState has updated its map in the Dobropillia direction, marking advances by Russian forces near the village of Shevchenko, north of the town of Pokrovsk, as well as near the town of Bilytske. It is worth noting that, according to our team and other analysts, the RuAF achieved a local breakthrough in this direction in August, advancing toward the village of Vodianske north of Shevchenko. As has been the case in recent months, advances are reflected on the DeepState map with a significant delay. At the same time, the contested area can be extended as far as the outskirts of the town of Dobropillia and the village of Hannivka, which Russian assault troops have already reached.
Sitrep for Sept. 24-28, 2026 (as of 10:00 a.m. UTC+3)
There have been no significant changes along the frontline in recent days.
Sitrep for Sept. 21-24, 2026 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
In the Kupiansk direction, in the Kharkiv region, DeepState has expanded the area under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine west of the village of Dvorichna and north of the town of Kupiansk, which first appeared on its map at the end of August. Forces of the 2nd Khartia Corps of the National Guard of Ukraine have now advanced farther south and liberated the village of Zapadne—according to reports, the 23rd Assault Regiment is taking part in the fighting, with many foreign nationals serving in its ranks. It is worth noting that former journalist Pyotr Ruzavin also serves as a drone operator with the 13th Khartia Brigade.
Sitrep for Sept. 14-21, 2026 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
On Sept. 20, parliamentary elections were held in Russia. Contrary to our expectations, the Russian Ministry of Defense did not stage an operation beforehand to send assault troops to the outskirts of Sloviansk to record footage with a flag. Instead, it merely reported fighting "on the immediate approaches to Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, and Druzhkivka." The same statement said that in Lyman and Sviatohirsk, "the clearing of residential areas of isolated AFU servicemen continues."
Sitrep for Sept. 10-14, 2026 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
Rybar, a prominent pro-Russian Telegram channel, appears to have acknowledged the loss of the Shandryholove salient: in its Sept. 9 sitrep, it reported a deterioration in the situation, with the salient marked as a combat zone, while by Sept. 13 its map showed that the Russian Armed Forces had lost control of the territory. At the same time, it reported that fighting was taking place around the base of the salient, including in the area of the village of Kolodiazi, while individual groups were reaching the Zherebets River. This further confirms that the Armed Forces of Ukraine were able to cut off the salient and are apparently continuing to clear it.