Sitrep for April 10-13, 2026 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
On April 10, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced the capture of two settlements for the first time since the beginning of the month: the border village of Myropilske in the Sumy region (north of the village of Hrabovske) and the village of Dibrova in the Donetsk region (north-west of the village of Fedorivka Druha, in the Sloviansk direction—not to be confused with the village of Dibrova west of Yampil).
Sitrep for April 6-10, 2026 (as of 9 a.m. UTC+3)
Over the past week, there have been no significant changes along the frontline. Notably, for an entire week—from the Russian Ministry of Defense’s April 1 announcement of the capture of the village of Boikove in the Zaporizhzhia region up to the time of recording this sitrep—the Russian MoD has not announced the "liberation" of a single settlement.
Sitrep for April 4-6, 2026 (as of 9 a.m. UTC+3)
Video from the Lyman direction has surfaced showing a Ukrainian Mil Mi-8 helicopter tossing unguided air-to-surface rockets using a "pitch-up" maneuver, lofting the munitions by pulling its nose upward. This method of fire is largely ineffective and, in some respects, resembles the use of a multiple-launch rocket system. The rationale for employing helicopters in this manner is unclear, particularly given the maneuver’s inherent danger. A Russian Kamov Ka-52 (Hokum B) attack helicopter was recently shot down while performing a similar strike. Such operations are equally perilous for Ukrainian aircraft, especially as this helicopter flew close to the "gray zone" west of the village of Drobysheve, where Russian drones are
Sitrep for March 30-April 4, 2026 (as of 8 a.m. UTC+3)
The duration of the full-scale war has now exceeded 1,500 days, and there are currently no indicators that it could even be frozen in the coming months.
Sitrep for March 27-30, 2026 (as of 9 UTC+3 a.m.)
Russian forces continue their offensive toward the town of Kostiantynivka. Previously, assault troops had already advanced into the central part of the town. Last week, Russian forces conducted another attack. On Mar. 25, two tanks advanced on Kostiantynivka from the direction of Toretsk, likely intended to draw the attention of Ukrainian UAVs. Simultaneously, three infantry groups moved toward the town: one advanced by motorcycle along the highway from the direction of Pokrovsk; a second attacked from Ivanopillia; and a third advanced along the railway line between Ivanopillia and Oleksandro-Shultyne. The assault was detected by Ukrainian drones and subsequently repelled.
Sitrep for March 23-27, 2026 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
In the Kupiansk direction, Russian forces are attempting to seize areas they had previously claimed as "liberated." At present, assault troops are engaged in fighting east of the town of Kupiansk, near the village of Synkivka, as well as in the villages of Petropavlivka, Kurylivka and Kivsharivka.
Sitrep for March 20-23, 2026 (as of 8:30 a.m. UTC+3)
Russian mechanized assaults continue across multiple sectors. In particular, on March 20, the DeepState project reported that in the Lyman direction, near the village of Shandryholove, Ukrainian forces repelled such an attack after detecting enemy vehicles with drones.
Sitrep for March 16-20, 2026 (as of 10:30 a.m. UTC+3)
The radicalization of rhetoric among many Russian pro-war bloggers due to internet shutdowns and other issues in Russia, according to our assessment, will not influence the position of the authorities or lead to a halt of the war.
Sitrep for March 13-16, 2026 (as of 10:00 a.m. UTC+3)
In the Pokrovsk direction, available data indicate that the Russian Armed Forces have fully captured the village of Hryshyne, located northwest of Pokrovsk. Fighting is now underway for the village of Novooleksandrivka. This is corroborated by both Andrii Babichev, a serviceman of the 93rd Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine known for his Moto Life UA vlog, and a geolocated video showing Russian soldiers on the northern outskirts of Hryshyne, published by the pro-Russian Slivochny Kapriz project.
Sitrep for March 9-13, 2026 (as of 10:30 a.m. UTC+3)
Russia’s Group of Troops "North" continues active operations in Ukraine’s border areas, primarily in the Sumy region. Many of the settlements reportedly captured there effectively no longer exist and are barely visible even in satellite imagery. In our view, the creation of a "buffer zone" less than 15 km [9.3 mi] deep—through the expansion of contested areas and the capture of tiny border villages—is of limited military value. Nevertheless, this appears to be what the Russian military command is demanding. Ukrainian forces, for their part, are attempting to defend this territory. However, given the shortage of resources and the difficulty of reinforcing the border grouping, we believe a different approach might be more effective. The...