Sitrep for June 22-26, 2026 (as of 9:30 a.m. UTC+3)
Reports have recently emerged regarding the alleged withdrawal of Russian forces from the Kinburn Spit and increased activity by the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area. Supply difficulties caused by increasingly frequent Ukrainian drone strikes on occupied territories and the land bridge to Crimea were cited as the primary reason.
Sitrep for June 19-22, 2026 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
In the Sloviansk direction, a video captured a close-quarters engagement in the village of Zakitne, most of which is under Russian control. The footage shows a Ukrainian soldier hiding in the ruins of a private house confronting three Russian servicemen who appear to have been checking or clearing the area. The Ukrainian soldier first threw a grenade at the group and then opened fire with small arms. Two of the Russian soldiers were killed, while a third was wounded but managed to escape.
Sitrep for June 15-19, 2026 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
Russian servicemen have published flag-raising videos filmed in the village of Rai-Oleksandrivka, southeast of the city of Sloviansk. This sector of the front has seen relatively little movement in recent months. During the winter and early spring, the Russian Armed Forces advanced steadily in the area following the capture of the town of Siversk, but the pace of the offensive later slowed considerably, apparently after Russian forces reached prepared Ukrainian defensive positions. Despite Russian claims that the videos confirm the capture of Rai-Oleksandrivka, we believe they are more indicative of continued infiltration than of successful consolidation of control over the village. Topographic maps show that Russian forces approached...
Sitrep for June 8-15, 2026 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
With only two weeks remaining until the end of June, it is already possible to draw some preliminary conclusions from the past two months, which have highlighted the growing challenges facing the Russian Armed Forces. As noted earlier, the pace of Russian advances in May was exceptionally slow. Although the rate of advance has picked up somewhat in June, the increase has not been significant enough to suggest any fundamental shift in the trend. Nor is there much reason to expect the Russian offensive to accelerate dramatically over the remaining weeks of the month.
Sitrep for June 5-8, 2026 (as of 7:30 a.m. UTC+3)
Of all sectors of the frontline, the Kostiantynivka direction is currently the most concerning for Ukrainian forces. Even so, DeepState's maps have shown little more than an expansion of the contested area in recent weeks. In early June, that zone spread to both the eastern and western outskirts of Kostiantynivka. In our view, however, those areas can already be considered partially captured, and the situation in the town is becoming increasingly dangerous for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. What is unfolding increasingly resembles the battle for the town of Pokrovsk, when for many months the Ukrainian side declined to acknowledge—and DeepState's analysts declined to reflect on their maps—that the gradual infiltration of Russian assault...
Sitrep for May 25-June 5, 2026 (as of 10:00 a.m. UTC+3)
As June began, various analytical projects have published their estimates of the Russian Army’s territorial gains in May. As noted previously, these figures are of particular interest this year, since in previous years the late spring and early summer period was marked by an intensification of Russian offensive operations and, at times, tactical breakthroughs along the frontline.
Sitrep for May 23-25, 2026 (as of 7:30 a.m. UTC+3)
As of the final week of May, the pace of the Russian offensive still does not appear to have increased. Nevertheless, we believe it is worth waiting until the end of June before drawing firm conclusions about the scale of the problems facing the Russian Armed Forces, when the broader dynamics of combat operations can be more fully assessed. If the rate of advance does not increase significantly, it could indicate that Russia’s offensive capabilities have deteriorated noticeably. Even now, it is clear that the pace of Russian advances in May was substantially slower than during the same period last year, a conclusion supported by statistics even from the pro-Russian Slivochnyy Kapriz Telegram channel.
Sitrep for May 15-23, 2026 (as of 7:30 a.m. UTC+3)
In the early hours of May 22, Ukrainian forces struck the pedagogical college in Starobilsk, Luhansk region. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine acknowledged the strike but stated that the target was not a civilian infrastructure site, claiming it was one of the headquarters of the Rubikon unit in the Starobilsk area. The main impacts hit the college’s academic building and dormitory facilities. The footage was also analyzed by Mark Krutov, editor of the Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. At first glance, the scale of destruction to the main structure appeared excessive for a UAV strike alone. However, one survivor stated that several UAVs struck the building in succession, and that after one of the impacts the internal floor...
Sitrep for May 11-15, 2026 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
On May 13 and 14, Russia launched a massive aerial strike against Ukraine, the largest since the start of the war. A total of 1,567 drones and 56 missiles of various types were deployed. The primary target was Kyiv. It appears that during the ceasefire announced by Trump, Russia accumulated drones in order to conduct a larger-scale raid than has been seen in recent months. In addition to UAVs, more than 50 missiles were launched to further overload Ukrainian air defenses and inflict greater damage.
Sitrep for May 9-11, 2026 (as of 10:30 a.m. UTC+3)
On May 8, even before the ceasefire announced by Trump, Ukrainian forces struck the office of the Southern Air Navigation (a branch of the State Air Traffic Management Corporation) in Rostov-on-Don. This office manages all air traffic in southern Russia, including international flights passing through regions controlled by the center. The air navigation center cannot be considered a legitimate military target. The strike was likely intended to exert psychological pressure on Russian residents who were on vacation during the May holidays. As a result of the strike, numerous flights were canceled and delayed, leaving the sky over the southern part of the country empty. The imposed flight restrictions were lifted fairly quickly: some were...