Sitrep for Jan. 20-22, 2025 (as of 10:30 a.m. UTC+3)
On the Vremivka salient, the Russian Armed Forces continue their efforts to gain control of Velyka Novosilka, as confirmed by both DeepState and Ukrainian military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets. Holding the village is no longer feasible for the Armed Forces of Ukraine as Russian forces have entered its southeastern part, making it necessary for the AFU to withdraw. It is worth noting that all roads into and out of Velyka Novosilka are under Russian control, forcing Ukrainian forces to retreat over rugged terrain.
Sitrep for Jan. 17-20, 2025 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
Fighting has begun for the village of Velyka Novosilka in the Vremivka salient, where the situation has worsened significantly in recent days. After Russian forces advanced from the village of Novyi Komar, Velyka Novosilka became encircled on three sides, with the Mokri Yaly River forming the fourth boundary. Escape routes have been cut off, although Ukrainian forces could still cross the river, leaving behind their military equipment. It is plausible that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have already withdrawn from Velyka Novosilka, though no confirmation has been provided. In any case, the capture of the village appears imminent, as the AFU have little strategic advantage in continuing to hold it.
Sitrep for Jan. 15-17, 2025 (as of 9:30 a.m. UTC+3)
In the southern Donetsk region, Russian forces have continued to advance along the Vremivka salient and the remaining portion of the salient near the town of Kurakhove. In recent days, they have captured the village of Neskuchne and nearly completed the occupation of the village of Vremivka, leaving only its northern outskirts outside their control, according to maps. As a result, the village of Velyka Novosilka is now in an even more precarious position, approaching complete encirclement. To minimize losses, we believe it would be prudent for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to withdraw from the area in the near future.
Sitrep for Jan. 13-15, 2025 (as of 9:30 a.m. UTC+3)
In the Kurakhove direction, according to DeepState, the Russian Armed Forces have captured the village of Yantarne in the Sukhi Yaly River valley, where the Russian flag had previously been raised by RuAF soldiers. This leaves the village of Dachne as the only remaining settlement in the bulge near Kurakhove not under Russian control. Russian troops continue advancing along the northern bank of the Vovcha River from the village of Shevchenko toward Andriivka. There is a crossing in the village of Kostiantynopil just to the south of Andriivka. Whether the crossing has survived months of fighting remains unclear. Holding the remaining pocket west of Kurakhove seems untenable for the Armed Forces of Ukraine and an organized withdrawal...
Sitrep for Jan. 10-13, 2025 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
On Jan. 11, the Ukrainian project DeepState acknowledged that the town of Kurakhove had been fully captured. Currently, fighting is underway in two settlements in this area: the village of Dachne, located west of Kurakhove along the N-15 highway connecting the cities of Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk, and the village of Yantarne, situated south of Dachne in the Sukhi Yaly River valley. In Yantarne, Russian forces have raised their flag, with video footage showing them moving freely within the village. The Russian Ministry of Defense has claimed full control over Yantarne. DeepState has reported advances by the Russian Armed Forces in Yantarne but has not confirmed its complete capture.
Sitrep as of Jan. 10, 2025 (10 a.m. UTC+3)
In the Vremivka salient, where the village of Velyka Novosilka has been partially encircled since early Dec. 2024, no significant developments have occurred over the past two weeks. Despite the limited number of troops that would be needed to complete the encirclement, Russian forces have not made further advances in the area.
Sitrep for Dec. 25-27, 2024 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
The next sitrep will be in two weeks, on Jan. 10.
Sitrep for Dec. 23-25, 2024 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
On the Vremivka salient, the village of Makarivka has completely come under Russian control. According to the DeepState project, Ukrainian units that were encircled in the area managed to break out.
Sitrep for Dec. 20-23, 2024 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
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Sitrep for Dec. 18-20, 2024 (as of 9 a.m. UTC+3)
The DeepState monitoring project reported that by the end of the week, the pocket in the Sukhi Yaly River valley in the Kurakhove direction had been entirely overrun by Russian forces, with some Ukrainian troops unable to retreat in time. The entrenched practice of holding pockets of territory at seemingly any cost has caused vulnerabilities along various sections of the frontline and risks facilitating the creation of a much larger bulge around Kurakhove. Had the Armed Forces of Ukraine redeployed reinforcements and withdrawn troops from this pocket to other positions, Russian advances in the Kurakhove and South Donetsk directions might have been significantly slower, potentially averting the encirclement of the Kurakhove fortified area.