Sitrep for Sept. 21-24, 2026 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
In the Kupiansk direction, in the Kharkiv region, DeepState has expanded the area under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine west of the village of Dvorichna and north of the town of Kupiansk, which first appeared on its map at the end of August. Forces of the 2nd Khartia Corps of the National Guard of Ukraine have now advanced farther south and liberated the village of Zapadne—according to reports, the 23rd Assault Regiment is taking part in the fighting, with many foreign nationals serving in its ranks. It is worth noting that former journalist Pyotr Ruzavin also serves as a drone operator with the 13th Khartia Brigade.
Sitrep for Sept. 14-21, 2026 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
On Sept. 20, parliamentary elections were held in Russia. Contrary to our expectations, the Russian Ministry of Defense did not stage an operation beforehand to send assault troops to the outskirts of Sloviansk to record footage with a flag. Instead, it merely reported fighting "on the immediate approaches to Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, and Druzhkivka." The same statement said that in Lyman and Sviatohirsk, "the clearing of residential areas of isolated AFU servicemen continues."
Sitrep for Sept. 10-14, 2026 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
Rybar, a prominent pro-Russian Telegram channel, appears to have acknowledged the loss of the Shandryholove salient: in its Sept. 9 sitrep, it reported a deterioration in the situation, with the salient marked as a combat zone, while by Sept. 13 its map showed that the Russian Armed Forces had lost control of the territory. At the same time, it reported that fighting was taking place around the base of the salient, including in the area of the village of Kolodiazi, while individual groups were reaching the Zherebets River. This further confirms that the Armed Forces of Ukraine were able to cut off the salient and are apparently continuing to clear it.
Sitrep for Sept. 7-10, 2026 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
Playfra has partially confirmed AMK Mapping’s assessment that the Russian Armed Forces have reached the Dobropillia-Kramatorsk highway. In particular, Russian soldiers have been spotted south and southeast of the village of Novotroitske, as well as in the northern part of the village of Raiske. Later, Playfra, citing the 1st Azov Corps of the National Guard, reported that three Russian soldiers were captured in the village of Staroraiske, in the immediate vicinity of the western outskirts of the town of Druzhkivka. Thus, the situation in the Dobropillia direction remains difficult: the RuAF continue to infiltrate the area and are gradually moving closer to Druzhkivka.
Sitrep for Sept. 3-7, 2026 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
According to estimates by the Finnish independent monitoring group Black Bird Group, the pace of the Russian Armed Forces’ advance increased slightly in August compared with July, with Russian forces gaining 133 square kilometers versus 106 square kilometers. However, compared with the previous summer, this summer can reasonably be described as unsuccessful: Black Bird Group recorded Russian gains of 430 square kilometers in August and 502 square kilometers in July last year. That said, the war is developing differently this year than in previous years, and monthly territorial statistics should therefore be treated primarily as operational indicators useful for assessing changes from month to month. Comparisons with the corresponding...
Sitrep for Aug. 31-Sept. 3, 2026 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
In the Orikhiv direction, the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have captured the villages of Chervona Krynytsia (northeast of the town of Orikhiv) and Novopavlivka (northwest of Orikhiv). Given last year's claims that the villages of Mala Tokmachka and Novodanylivka had been captured, this means that, according to the MoD, Orikhiv is already almost surrounded. At the same time, only a flag-planting photo op was shown from Chervona Krynytsia, while no such footage has emerged from Novopavlivka. At present, these villages can be considered part of the contested area.
Sitrep for Aug. 27-31, 2026 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
Although summer is drawing to a close, the military campaign continues to intensify, and active fighting will most likely continue at least until the leaves fall and the muddy season sets in—possibly until the end of December, as was the case last year. Therefore, there is little point in discussing the results of the "summer offensive," nor should reports of yet another alleged deadline set by Putin for the capture of the Donbas be taken seriously. Even if such orders were issued, they were not followed by any significant acceleration of the offensive, nor were there noticeable personnel consequences for failing to meet the deadlines.
Sitrep for August 24-27, 2026 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
In the Dobropillia direction, where, according to our team and other analysts, the Russian Armed Forces made a localized breakthrough, the corresponding expansion of the "gray zone" has still not been reflected on DeepState's map. The Russian Ministry of Defense has announced the capture of the villages of Kucheriv Yar and Hannivka. However, the ministry has released only combat footage, which does not confirm even partial control of the villages. Nevertheless, individual Russian assault troops are already infiltrating these settlements.
Sitrep for August 20-24, 2026 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
The end of summer is approaching, but it is too early to speak of the results of the summer offensive: this year's Russian offensive campaign only intensified in the second half of the summer and will continue for at least another couple of months.
Sitrep for Aug. 17-20, 2026 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
In the Zaporizhzhia region, the Russian Ministry of Defense has claimed the capture of the village of Novosoloshyne, which lies west of the current frontline. In our assessment, the boundary of the contested area runs through the villages of Vozdvyzhivka and Rizdvianka, putting Novosoloshyne even farther behind the current line shown on the DeepState map, which is often updated with a delay.