dispatches

Sitrep for Feb. 21-23, 2024 (as of 9 a.m. UTC+3)

Emerging video footage suggests Russian forces are still struggling to secure a firm foothold in Avdiivka: heavy armored vehicles entering the town are immediately targeted by Ukrainian kamikaze drones and artillery.

Sitrep for Feb. 19-21, 2024 (as of 9 a.m. UTC+3)

There have not been any significant advances by the Russian Armed Forces following the complete capture of Avdiivka, although attacks continue in various directions, notably around the villages of Robotyne and Verbove on the Zaporizhzhia axis. Pro-Russian sources alternately claim successes for the RuAF in Robotyne, only to later deny that a secure foothold has been established.

Sitrep for Feb. 16-19, 2024 (as of 9:30 a.m. UTC+3)

Avdiivka has now completely come under Russian control following the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the town. It is worth noting that the territory of the Avdiivka Coke Plant was also abandoned. The current frontline has shifted to the vicinity of the villages of Lastochkyne and Orlivka.

Sitrep for Feb. 14-16, 2024 (as of 8:30 a.m. UTC+3)

The situation in Avdiivka is rapidly deteriorating for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. On Feb. 15, Russian forces posted a video of a Russian flag being hoisted over the newly captured Ukrainian Zenit fortified area. This defensive position, located to the south of the city at a former air defense site, had been defended by Ukrainian forces until recently. According to DeepState, not all Ukrainian soldiers managed to retreat: some died, while others may have been captured. These conclusions are partly drawn from the accounts of a soldier from the 110th Mechanized Brigade of the AFU fighting in that area. He described a gradually worsening situation over several weeks. Initially, the enemy was attacking only from one side, but soon Russian...

Sitrep for Feb. 12-14, 2024 (as of 9 a.m. UTC+3) 

Russian forces have advanced north of Avdiivka faster than expected, effectively cutting off one of the two remaining supply routes, Industrialniy Prospekt. Given the current rate of advance, we conclude that the Ukrainian side is unlikely to be able to hold the town. Ukrainian sources also report the impossibility of holding it with the forces available. In our assessment, it is already necessary to organize a rearguard action and the withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Avdiivka.

Sitrep for Feb. 9-12, 2024 (as of 9 a.m. UTC+3)

The most strategically important direction remains Avdiivka. Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, the commander of the Tavria operational-strategic group, has stated that the Russian Armed Forces are concentrating on severing supply routes to the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Avdiivka. He mentioned that the AFU are deploying fresh reserve forces and are holding back Russian attacks. Dmytro Riumshyn, the commander of the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade, observed that the Russian forces have decreased their use of “meat assaults” tactics and are now relying mainly on the Air Force and occasionally on attacks by small sabotage groups, which are incurring heavy losses. Based on these observations, it could be inferred that the situation...

Sitrep for Feb. 7-9, 2024 (as of 8:30 a.m. UTC+3)

General Oleksandr Syrskyi has assumed the role of the new Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Currently, it remains unknown who will succeed him in his previous position, taking on the role of the new commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces. Typically, in such situations, the chief of staff is temporarily appointed to carry out the duties. Additionally, there is uncertainty regarding the appointment of the new Chief of the General Staff of the AFU in place of General Serhiy Shaptala. Prior to the resignation of General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, there were news reports suggesting that he and his entire team, including Shaptala and other generals, would leave their positions.

Sitrep for Feb. 5-7, 2024 (as of 8:30 a.m. UTC+3)

While the frontline remains largely unchanged, it is interesting to examine recent developments in certain areas of the front in light of the expectations set in 2023. In the Kupiansk (Kharkiv) direction, where significant Russian forces were reportedly concentrated, combat operations persist near the village of Synkivka. Yet, over the past few weeks, the Russian Armed Forces have failed to achieve any noticeable progress. Their inability to capture even a small village like Synkivka suggests an insufficient number of armored vehicles and personnel in that segment of the front.

Sitrep for Feb. 2-5, 2024 (as of 9 a.m. UTC+3)

The Russian Armed Forces have yet to gain a foothold on the southern outskirts of Avdiivka. The streets that they entered after advancing in the Tsarska Okhota area remain contested. However, Julian Röpcke, along with other analysts, observes a deteriorating situation for the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the northern part of the town. Journalist Yurii Butusov reports that the RuAF have made slight progress towards the northern town outskirts. The advancing units are now 1.5 km away, as the crow flies, from the town entrance sign. Butusov considers the situation critical, noting that the 110th Mechanized Brigade deployed in the Avdiivka direction faces ammunition shortages and exhaustion due to a lack of rotation. He also asserts that the...

Sitrep for Jan. 31-Feb. 2, 2024 (as of 9 a.m. UTC+3) 

The statement in the previous sitrep regarding a T-62 tank engaged in combat in the Avdiivka direction was erroneous. The tank in the video had six track rollers, while T-62 tanks typically have five. It was, in fact, a T-72 tank, likely a T-72AV, captured in the footage. Nevertheless, T-62 tanks are also engaged in combat, with several dozen of them reported lost, according to the Oryx project.