
In the Kupiansk direction, according to researcher Playfra, Russian forces have been actively attempting since January to infiltrate from the village of Pishchane into the village of Kurylivka, which lies directly adjacent to the western outskirts of the village of Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi. As a result, infantry units are gradually moving into the area from Kurylivka, advancing building by building. A similar pattern of infiltration is taking place in the village of Kivsharivka, south of Kurylivka, although the concentration of the Russian Armed Forces there is lower than around Kurylivka. It appears that Russian forces are attempting to split the Ukrainian foothold east of the Oskil River into two, making it easier to push the Armed Forces...

On April 20, Yuliia Kyriienko-Merinova, a journalist from Ukraine’s Television News Service (TSN), reported a deterioration in the situation in the Sumy region, noting that four Russian incursions had been recorded along Ukraine’s border. Small groups of Russian Armed Forces personnel are advancing from the east and north, and assault actions have begun in some areas. Kyriienko-Merinova described the potential partial encirclement of the city of Sumy as the most unfavorable scenario.

On April 10, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced the capture of two settlements for the first time since the beginning of the month: the border village of Myropilske in the Sumy region (north of the village of Hrabovske) and the village of Dibrova in the Donetsk region (north-west of the village of Fedorivka Druha, in the Sloviansk direction—not to be confused with the village of Dibrova west of Yampil).

Over the past week, there have been no significant changes along the frontline. Notably, for an entire week—from the Russian Ministry of Defense’s April 1 announcement of the capture of the village of Boikove in the Zaporizhzhia region up to the time of recording this sitrep—the Russian MoD has not announced the "liberation" of a single settlement.

Video from the Lyman direction has surfaced showing a Ukrainian Mil Mi-8 helicopter tossing unguided air-to-surface rockets using a "pitch-up" maneuver, lofting the munitions by pulling its nose upward. This method of fire is largely ineffective and, in some respects, resembles the use of a multiple-launch rocket system. The rationale for employing helicopters in this manner is unclear, particularly given the maneuver’s inherent danger. A Russian Kamov Ka-52 (Hokum B) attack helicopter was recently shot down while performing a similar strike. Such operations are equally perilous for Ukrainian aircraft, especially as this helicopter flew close to the "gray zone" west of the village of Drobysheve, where Russian drones are

The duration of the full-scale war has now exceeded 1,500 days, and there are currently no indicators that it could even be frozen in the coming months.

Russian forces continue their offensive toward the town of Kostiantynivka. Previously, assault troops had already advanced into the central part of the town. Last week, Russian forces conducted another attack. On Mar. 25, two tanks advanced on Kostiantynivka from the direction of Toretsk, likely intended to draw the attention of Ukrainian UAVs. Simultaneously, three infantry groups moved toward the town: one advanced by motorcycle along the highway from the direction of Pokrovsk; a second attacked from Ivanopillia; and a third advanced along the railway line between Ivanopillia and Oleksandro-Shultyne. The assault was detected by Ukrainian drones and subsequently repelled.

In the Kupiansk direction, Russian forces are attempting to seize areas they had previously claimed as "liberated." At present, assault troops are engaged in fighting east of the town of Kupiansk, near the village of Synkivka, as well as in the villages of Petropavlivka, Kurylivka and Kivsharivka.

Russian mechanized assaults continue across multiple sectors. In particular, on March 20, the DeepState project reported that in the Lyman direction, near the village of Shandryholove, Ukrainian forces repelled such an attack after detecting enemy vehicles with drones.

The radicalization of rhetoric among many Russian pro-war bloggers due to internet shutdowns and other issues in Russia, according to our assessment, will not influence the position of the authorities or lead to a halt of the war.