One of the two most dynamic areas of the frontline in recent days has been the Ukrainian salient west of the village of Nevelske in the Kurakhove direction: Russian forces have made significant advances, approaching the town of Hirnyk and the village of Kurakhivka, and have captured the village of Zhelanne Druhe. We believe they might capture Kurakhivka and part of Hirnyk by the end of the week, as urban fighting is already underway on the northern outskirts of the town. Holding the salient would be quite a dangerous scenario for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, therefore Ukrainian troops are likely to retreat from the area in the near future, as they did in Vuhledar. As no videos showing a large number of captured or killed Ukrainian...

Одним из двух наиболее активных участков фронта за последние дни стал украинский выступ к западу от села Невельское на кураховском направлении: российские силы заметно продвинулись, приблизившись к городу Горняк и посёлку Кураховка, и заняли село Желанное Второе. Мы полагаем, что в течение недели они вполне могут захватить Кураховку и часть Горняка — городские бои на его северной окраине уже начались. Оставлять выступ для ВСУ довольно опасно, поэтому, вероятнее всего, украинские войска скоро будут отходить оттуда, как в своё время из Угледара — судя по тому, что видеозаписи с большим количеством пленных или убитых украинских солдат так и не были опубликованы, ВСУ всё же успели отступить из города без больших потерь.

The Russian Armed Forces continue employing the same tactics seen in most of their assaults on relatively large settlements. They typically encircle a settlement from two sides, followed by a frontal attack designed to force the Armed Forces of Ukraine into a quicker retreat.

In the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces have advanced north of the village of Tsukuryne and launched an assault on the town of Selydove from two sides, including from the south via the village of Marynivka. As a result, Tsukuryne is now effectively semi-encircled.

In the Kursk region, the Russian Armed Forces resumed their counteroffensive a few days ago. At the moment, it remains unclear which settlements are under Russian or Ukrainian control.

Over the past few days, the Russian Armed Forces have made slight advances in the northern part of the Pokrovsk direction, finally capturing the villages of Mykolaivka, Krasnyi Yar and Krutyi Yar. It appears that Russian forces will now move southward toward the town of Myrnohrad. In 2020, the town's population was around 40,000 people, but by September 2024, only about 1,600 people remained. The pre-war population size provides an estimate of the number of buildings that could be used to create fortifications and firing positions.

In the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces have captured the village of Zhelanne Pershe, continuing to reduce the pocket to the west of the village of Nevelske, according to DeepState. Meanwhile, Russia’s Ministry of Defense had already announced the capture of the villages of Zhelanne Druhe (in MoD’s Oct. 5 report) and Zoryane (which the ministry, followed by propagandists, refers to as Zoryanoye Pervoye/Zoryane Pershe), but on the DeepState map, these villages are not yet even in the contested zone, and we have not seen video evidence confirming the presence of the Russian Armed Forces in the area. Furthermore, Russian forces attempted to advance in the southern part of the Kurakhove direction towards the village of Ostrivske, but...

In the Pokrovsk direction, the Russian Armed Forces have occupied most of Tsukuryne; fighting over the remainder of the village continues.

The key development of the week was the capture of Vuhledar in the Donetsk region. Going forward, Ukraine’s defensive line will likely run near the village of Bohoiavlenka. To seize it, the Russian Armed Forces will probably try to advance on the village of Novoukrainka to cut off one of the supply routes leading to Bohoiavlenka from the west, which runs north of Novoukrainka.

The key development of the past few days has been the capture of Vuhledar by the Russian Armed Force, confirmed by videos of soldiers freely moving around the town. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have likely started leaving Vuhledar in recent days, as evidenced by the significant decrease in videos of fighting within the city limits. In addition, pro-Russian Telegram channels have published videos of UAVs dropping ammunition on retreating Ukrainian soldiers. Moreover, the leadership of the Ukrainian group of forces fighting in this direction officially announced the withdrawal of the AFU from Vuhledar.