Sitrep for Nov. 15-18, 2024 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
There have been almost no significant advancements along the frontline in recent days. In the Kurakhove direction, the situation continues to develop around the pocket along the Sukhi Yaly River. The Russian Armed Forces are attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces by closing the pincers near the village of Uspenivka. The expansion of contested areas indicates that intense fighting in this direction is ongoing, while the slowdown in Russian advances can likely be attributed to the redeployment of AFU’s 37th Naval Infantry Brigade to this section of the frontline.
Sitrep for Nov. 13-15, 2024 (as of 9:30 a.m. UTC+3)
In the southern part of the Donetsk region, as combat continues to intensify in this direction over the past few days, the Russian Armed Forces have captured the village of Rivnopil and are advancing near the Vremevsky ledge, close to the villages of Staromaiorske and Makarivka.
Sitrep for Nov. 11-13, 2024 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
In the Pokrovsk direction, the Russian Armed Forces are advancing northwest from the town of Selydove along the Solona River, moving from the village of Vyshneve toward the villages of Hryhorivka, Petrivka and Pustynka.
Sitrep for Nov. 8-11, 2024 (as of 8 a.m. UTC+3)
The situation in the Kurakhove direction is deteriorating as the Russian Armed Forces attempt to encircle Kurakhove and its fortified surroundings. Advancing south of the town, they have formed a new pocket along the Sukhi Yaly River, placing the villages of Katerynivka, Antonivka, Yelyzavetivka, Illinka, Romanivka, Veselyi Hai and Hannivka in a vulnerable position. This pocket is about 6 to 7 km [4.3 to 4.9 mi] wide and can be easily covered with fire. Given the relatively fast pace of the Russian advance, the Armed Forces of Ukraine should consider withdrawing to avoid being encircled.
Sitrep for Nov. 6-8, 2024 (as of 9 a.m. UTC+3)
Michael Kofman and other military analysts have shared their findings from their latest trip to Ukraine in a recent episode of the "War on the Rocks" podcast. While they acknowledged that the Armed Forces of Ukraine face significant challenges in the Donetsk region, Kofman noted that a collapse of the frontline does not appear imminent—a view that aligns with our own assessment. However, for the first time since the start of the war, shortages of personnel have overtaken shortages of equipment and ammunition as the primary issue confronting the AFU. Following their summer visit to Ukraine, the analysts had expressed cautious optimism about the prospects of a reinvigorated mobilization in the AFU, believing that stricter measures could...
Sitrep for Nov. 4-6, 2024 (as of 10:30 a.m. UTC+3)
Donald Trump has won the US election, securing enough electoral votes. His inauguration is set for Jan. 20, 2025, at 12:00 pm EST, when he will formally succeed President Joe Biden, who will remain in office until then.
Sitrep for Nov. 1-4, 2024 (as of 9:30 a.m. UTC+3)
The Russian Armed Forces have captured the village of Kurakhivka,almost completely occupying the pocket north of the Kurakhove Reservoir. Although the Ukrainian DeepState project has not marked the areas between the villages of Vovchenka and Ostrivske and south of Ostrivske in red (i.e. as controlled by Russian forces) on their map, this territory can now be considered captured. If there are Ukrainian troops left there, those are very unlikely to be able to break out of the encirclement. The project must have not yet received enough visual data to mark these areas as captured by the RuAF.
Sitrep for Oct. 30-Nov. 1, 2024 (as of 10:00 a.m. UTC+3)
In the Vuhledar direction in the south of the Donetsk region, the Russian Armed Forces have advanced between the villages of Novoukrainka and Bohoiavlenka, as well as west of the village of Pobieda. The Russian Ministry of Defense officially confirmed the capture of the villages of Shakhtarske, Novoukrainka, and Yasna Poliana.
Sitrep for Oct. 28-30, 2024 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
Fighting continues in the southern Donetsk region, currently the most active section of the frontline. Over recent days, Russian forces have managed to capture the villages of Bohoiavlenka and Novoukrainka and advance in the village of Yasna Poliana.
Sitrep for Oct. 25-28, 2024 (as of 8:30 a.m. UTC+3)
In the Pokrovsk direction, the Russian Armed Forces have made significant advances in Selydove over recent days. Most of the town is now under Russian control, with the remaining areas likely to be captured soon. Fighting began less than a week ago, which is a relatively rapid pace given that the pre-war population of the Selydove agglomeration was nearly 50,000, with over 23,000 residing in the town itself. Additionally, the RuAF are engaged in fighting for the village of Vyshneve and are attempting to advance southwest from there toward Novodmytrivka and Novooleksiivka.