Sitrep for Oct. 10-13, 2025 (as of 7 a.m. UTC+3)
In its latest update, the DeepState map has published a version of the frontline near Dobropillia that is diverging ever further from our own assessment. In the past, we noted that DeepState updates tended to lag behind real developments. Now, however, while we see the situation around the Dobropillia salient continuously worsening, DeepState’s analysts still report growing successes for the Ukrainian army.
Sitrep for Oct. 6-10, 2025 (as of 10:00 a.m. UTC+3)
In the Sumy region, Russian forces have been advancing from the village of Novomykolaivka toward the village of Varachyne. Fighting in this area has seen mixed results—in mid-September, the Armed Forces of Ukraine successfully counterattacked near the village of Kostiantynivka, pushing the enemy back to a water barrier. Now, however, the Russian Armed Forces have resumed their offensive and captured several Ukrainian positions.
Sitrep for Oct. 3-6, 2025 (as of 8:30 a.m. UTC+3)
In the South Donetsk direction, in recent days, the Armed Forces of Ukraine counterattacked the Russian Armed Forces in the Dnipropetrovsk region, liberating the villages of Sosnivka and Khoroshe and regaining control over several positions in the villages of Sichneve (known as Yanvarske until 2024) and Novoselivka. Meanwhile, Russian forces continued to advance south of Sosnivka and in the area of the village of Ternove.
Sitrep for Sept. 29-Oct. 3, 2025 (as of 10:30 a.m. UTC+3)
The Russian Armed Forces continue their offensive in the border areas of the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions. In recent days, they captured the villages of Olhivske in the Zaporizhzhia region, as well as Berezove and Kalynivske in the Dnipropetrovsk region.
Sitrep for Sept. 26-29, 2025 (as of 7:30 a.m. UTC+3)
In the Kharkiv region, in the Kupiansk direction, the Russian Armed Forces continue to advance gradually in the town of Kupiansk. They have already moved close to the Yuvileinyi residential area and the town’s supply route. On Sept. 27, the DeepState map expanded the contested area to reach the road leading southwest.
Sitrep for Sept. 22-26, 2025 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
In the Lyman direction, the Russian Armed Forces are advancing toward the village of Yampil from the Serebrianske forestry. Early footage from Yampil’s northeastern outskirts shows Russian soldiers gradually appearing. As in other cases, it is reasonable to expect a gradual infiltration of assault units that will accumulate before ultimately capturing the village.
Sitrep for Sept. 15-22, 2025 (as of 10:30 UTC+3 a.m.)
Last week, the situation deteriorated in the Kupiansk direction: the Russian Armed Forces pushed forward in the town of Kupiansk, with new videos emerging from various parts of the town, including near the hospital. They partially surrounded the village of Kindrashivka and also began advancing eastward toward the town, moving through the area of the village of Stepova Novoselivka toward the village of Petropavlivka.
Sitrep for Sept. 12-15, 2025 (as of 8 a.m. UTC+3)
Ukrainian forces are reporting modest gains on the western flank of the Sumy direction near the village of Kostiantynivka. Their advance appears to have been facilitated by the redeployment of Russian naval infantry units to the Kostiantynivka direction in the Donetsk region.
Sitrep for Sept. 8-12, 2025 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
In the previous sitrep we reported that Ukrainian forces likely intended to cut off the main part of the Dobropillia salient by advancing along the Kazenyi Torets River from the direction of the villages of Razine and Novotoretske, however there were no advances along the river in recent days. Nevertheless, the Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to advance northeast of the village of Volodymyrivka, while Russian forces slightly expanded their presence to the west of it. In addition, the AFU significantly narrowed the salient just north of the village of Maiak, practically cutting off supplies to the area between the village of Shakhove and Nove Shakhove.
Sitrep for Sept. 5-8, 2025 (as of 7:30 a.m. UTC+3)
In the Pokrovsk direction, the Ukrainian army has recently begun actively counterattacking in the Dobropillia breakthrough, advancing in two sectors near the villages of Razine and Novotoretske. It appears that Ukrainian forces intend to cut off the main part of the Dobropillia salient along the Kazenyi Torets River by advancing from the north and south. The river serves as a natural defensive line that makes it easier to hold the territory. In addition, the Armed Forces of Ukraine likely cleared another section of the salient cut off from the main forces west of the village of Kucheriv Yar and south of the village of Zolotyi Kolodiaz. This area is now marked as contested. Ukrainian military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets also reported...