Sitrep for March 6-9, 2026 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
In the Sumy region, Russia’s Group of Troops “North” has once again crossed the border, reportedly capturing the border village of Sopych. The Ukrainian monitoring project DeepState has also mapped further Russian advances on the bridgehead near Hrabovske, specifically in the villages of Pokrovka and Popivka (north of Vysoke), which Russia’s Ministry of Defense had previously claimed to have captured.
Sitrep for March 2-6, 2026 (as of 10:30 a.m. UTC+3)
In the Lyman direction, the Russian Armed Forces entered the village of Drobysheve and raised Russian flags. However, no people were visible in the video. Later, footage appeared showing Russian soldiers directly in the center of the village. Apparently, they did manage to advance there from the north. The Russian Ministry of Defense also claimed the capture of the village of Yarova, though convincing confirmation of this has not yet emerged.
Sitrep for Feb. 23-March 2, 2026 (as of 11:00 a.m. UTC+3)
As a new month begins, various analytical projects have summed up the results for February. Although we had expected January to mark a record low in Russian territorial gains, that distinction ultimately went to February. According to the DeepState Ukrainian monitoring project, Russia captured 126 square kilometers—its lowest monthly figure since July 2024. For comparison, Russia captured 245 square kilometers in January 2026 and 445 square kilometers in December 2025. Even according to the pro-Russian Slivochny Kapriz project, the pace of Russian advances in February dropped by more than half compared to January—from 560 to 255 square kilometers.
Sitrep for Feb. 20-23, 2026 (as of 11:30 a.m. UTC+3)
Ukraine’s Air Assault Forces have issued a statement regarding the ongoing offensive operation by Ukrainian troops. According to the statement, the primary objective of the Air Assault Forces is to disrupt Russia’s plans for further advances in the Dnipropetrovsk and the Zaporizhzhia regions, defeat the Russian grouping in this sector of the front and push it back beyond the administrative borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region. As a reminder, active combat in this region is currently confined to a relatively narrow strip, and Russian forces have not managed to advance deeper into the region since the summer. The statement also claims that, as a result of the operation, the Air Assault Forces—together with adjacent units—have regained...
Sitrep for Feb. 16-20, 2026 (as of 10:30 a.m. UTC+3)
Two weeks have passed since the start of the Ukrainian operational-level offensive in the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions. Looking at the interim results, it's clear that most of the progress was made during the first week. In the second week, the pace slowed and there were no major changes on the ground.
Sitrep for Feb. 13-16, 2026 (as of 11:00 a.m. UTC+3)
The Ukrainian Armed Forces continue an offensive operation on the eastern flank of the Zaporizhzhia axis (formerly the Huliaipole direction). Attempts to induce chaos among Russian forces have not succeeded: no panic withdrawal, collapse of defensive lines, or even a significant loss of command and control has been recorded, despite the shutdown of unregistered Starlink terminals. This may have caused some delay in reaction times, but according to our data, the Russian Armed Forces were not caught by surprise.
Sitrep for Feb. 9-13, 2026 (as of 11:30 a.m. UTC+3)
This week, Russian forces continued attempts to bring the real situation in the Kupiansk direction into line with official reports. On Feb. 9, Russian troops carried out a mechanized attack near the villages of Petropavlivka and Podoly. As a result, according to Ukrainian servicemen, a column of Russian military equipment, including two MT-LB multi-purpose armored vehicles, 11 quad bikes and two buggies, was destroyed. Seventeen soldiers were reportedly killed and four wounded. Earlier, advances east of the town of Kupiansk had been reported only "on paper."
Sitrep for Feb. 6-9, 2026 (as of 6:30 a.m. UTC+3)
Russian forces continue to create new small bridgeheads in the Sumy and Kharkiv regions and expand existing ones. Russia’s Ministry of Defense claimed the capture of the border village of Popivka in the Sumy region; however, it is unclear which Popivka they meant—one located north of the village of Vysoke, captured around the same time as the village of Hrabovske (in late December), or another situated much farther south of Hrabovske, which would indicate an attempt to establish a new bridgehead. Ukrainian servicemen recorded a video with a flag in the Popivka north of Vysoke, but, judging by maps, there are no houses there, so it remains unclear where the Russian video was filmed. Pro-Russian Telegram channels have also been unable...
Sitrep for Feb. 2-6, 2026 (as of 11 a.m. UTC+3)
According to DeepState, Ukrainian forces have successfully continued clearing operations in the center of the town of Kupiansk. A small number of Russian assault troops remain surrounded there, but the entire southern part of the town has now been fully cleared. Russian official sources have not commented on this; according to them, Kupiansk is considered fully captured.
Sitrep for Jan. 26-Feb. 2, 2026 (as of 11:00 a.m. UTC+3)
In the Kupiansk direction, reality continues to diverge more and more from the picture described by the Russian General Staff. On Jan. 26, General Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the RuAF, claimed that Russian forces had captured the village of Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi, located south of the town of Kupiansk in the Ukrainian rear. This was refuted by Ukrainian servicemen: Roman Kovalyov, commander of the 413th Separate Rifle Battalion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, recorded a video in the center of the village without body armor or a helmet, and no sounds of combat could be heard in the background.