Sitrep for March 27-30, 2026 (as of 9:00 UTC+3 a.m.)
Russian forces continue their offensive toward the town of Kostiantynivka. Previously, assault troops had already advanced into the central part of the town. Last week, Russian forces conducted another attack. On Mar. 25, two tanks advanced on Kostiantynivka from the direction of Toretsk, likely intended to draw the attention of Ukrainian UAVs. Simultaneously, three infantry groups moved toward the town: one advanced by motorcycle along the highway from the direction of Pokrovsk; a second attacked from Ivanopillia; and a third advanced along the railway line between Ivanopillia and Oleksandro-Shultyne. The assault was detected by Ukrainian drones and subsequently repelled.
Sitrep for March 23-27, 2026 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
In the Kupiansk direction, Russian forces are attempting to seize areas they had previously claimed as "liberated." At present, assault troops are engaged in fighting east of the town of Kupiansk, near the village of Synkivka, as well as in the villages of Petropavlivka, Kurylivka and Kivsharivka.
Sitrep for March 20-23, 2026 (as of 8:30 a.m. UTC+3)
Russian mechanized assaults continue across multiple sectors. In particular, on March 20, the DeepState project reported that in the Lyman direction, near the village of Shandryholove, Ukrainian forces repelled such an attack after detecting enemy vehicles with drones.
Sitrep for March 16-20, 2026 (as of 10:30 a.m. UTC+3)
The radicalization of rhetoric among many Russian pro-war bloggers due to internet shutdowns and other issues in Russia, according to our assessment, will not influence the position of the authorities or lead to a halt of the war.
Sitrep for March 13-16, 2026 (as of 10:00 a.m. UTC+3)
In the Pokrovsk direction, available data indicate that the Russian Armed Forces have fully captured the village of Hryshyne, located northwest of Pokrovsk. Fighting is now underway for the village of Novooleksandrivka. This is corroborated by both Andrii Babichev, a serviceman of the 93rd Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine known for his Moto Life UA vlog, and a geolocated video showing Russian soldiers on the northern outskirts of Hryshyne, published by the pro-Russian Slivochny Kapriz project.
Sitrep for March 9-13, 2026 (as of 10:30 a.m. UTC+3)
Russia’s Group of Troops "North" continues active operations in Ukraine’s border areas, primarily in the Sumy region. Many of the settlements reportedly captured there effectively no longer exist and are barely visible even in satellite imagery. In our view, the creation of a "buffer zone" less than 15 km [9.3 mi] deep—through the expansion of contested areas and the capture of tiny border villages—is of limited military value. Nevertheless, this appears to be what the Russian military command is demanding. Ukrainian forces, for their part, are attempting to defend this territory. However, given the shortage of resources and the difficulty of reinforcing the border grouping, we believe a different approach might be more effective. The...
Sitrep for March 6-9, 2026 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
In the Sumy region, Russia’s Group of Troops “North” has once again crossed the border, reportedly capturing the border village of Sopych. The Ukrainian monitoring project DeepState has also mapped further Russian advances on the bridgehead near Hrabovske, specifically in the villages of Pokrovka and Popivka (north of Vysoke), which Russia’s Ministry of Defense had previously claimed to have captured.
Sitrep for March 2-6, 2026 (as of 10:30 a.m. UTC+3)
In the Lyman direction, the Russian Armed Forces entered the village of Drobysheve and raised Russian flags. However, no people were visible in the video. Later, footage appeared showing Russian soldiers directly in the center of the village. Apparently, they did manage to advance there from the north. The Russian Ministry of Defense also claimed the capture of the village of Yarova, though convincing confirmation of this has not yet emerged.
Sitrep for Feb. 23-March 2, 2026 (as of 11:00 a.m. UTC+3)
As a new month begins, various analytical projects have summed up the results for February. Although we had expected January to mark a record low in Russian territorial gains, that distinction ultimately went to February. According to the DeepState Ukrainian monitoring project, Russia captured 126 square kilometers—its lowest monthly figure since July 2024. For comparison, Russia captured 245 square kilometers in January 2026 and 445 square kilometers in December 2025. Even according to the pro-Russian Slivochny Kapriz project, the pace of Russian advances in February dropped by more than half compared to January—from 560 to 255 square kilometers.
Sitrep for Feb. 20-23, 2026 (as of 11:30 a.m. UTC+3)
Ukraine’s Air Assault Forces have issued a statement regarding the ongoing offensive operation by Ukrainian troops. According to the statement, the primary objective of the Air Assault Forces is to disrupt Russia’s plans for further advances in the Dnipropetrovsk and the Zaporizhzhia regions, defeat the Russian grouping in this sector of the front and push it back beyond the administrative borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region. As a reminder, active combat in this region is currently confined to a relatively narrow strip, and Russian forces have not managed to advance deeper into the region since the summer. The statement also claims that, as a result of the operation, the Air Assault Forces—together with adjacent units—have regained...