Sitrep for Dec. 18-20, 2024 (as of 9 a.m. UTC+3)
The DeepState monitoring project reported that by the end of the week, the pocket in the Sukhi Yaly River valley in the Kurakhove direction had been entirely overrun by Russian forces, with some Ukrainian troops unable to retreat in time. The entrenched practice of holding pockets of territory at seemingly any cost has caused vulnerabilities along various sections of the frontline and risks facilitating the creation of a much larger bulge around Kurakhove. Had the Armed Forces of Ukraine redeployed reinforcements and withdrawn troops from this pocket to other positions, Russian advances in the Kurakhove and South Donetsk directions might have been significantly slower, potentially averting the encirclement of the Kurakhove fortified area.
Sitrep for Dec. 16-18, 2024 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
Over the past few days, there have been virtually no significant changes on the frontline in Ukraine. The Russian Armed Forces have made minor advances in the South Donetsk direction, near the villages of Novyi Komar and Makarivka, located to the north and south of Velyka Novosilka, respectively.
Sitrep for Dec. 13-16, 2024 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
At the Vremevsky ledge, the Russian Armed Forces have recently reoccupied the previously liberated village of Novyi Komar, once again partially encircling the village of Velyka Novosilka. Additionally, to the south, Russian forces forded the Mokri Yaly River near the occupied village of Blahodatne and began advancing northeast from the village of Rivnopil, targeting the villages of Neskuchne and Storozheve.
Sitrep for Dec. 11-13, 2024 (as of 9:30 a.m. UTC+3)
In the Kurakhove direction, the situation in the pocket along the Sukhi Yaly River valley continues to unfold unexpectedly. A week ago, we assumed that Ukrainian forces were beginning to withdraw from this pocket to avoid encirclement. However, this has proven not to be the case. Russian forces have taken positions in the village of Veselyi Hai, currently situated in the central part of the pocket. While it would be logical to assume that there are no Ukrainian forces remaining east of these positions, a video from the village of Yelyzavetivka has surfaced, proving otherwise. The footage, captured by a drone, shows a two-man Ukrainian assault engineering group ambushed and eliminated in a residential area.
Sitrep for Dec. 9-11, 2024 (as of 9:30 a.m. UTC+3)
At the Vremevsky ledge and in the Sukhi Yaly River valley, no changes have occurred in recent days. However, the Russian Armed Forces made slight advances in the northern part of the Kurakhove direction, near the villages of Sontsivka and Voznesenka.
Sitrep for Dec. 6-9, 2024 (as of 11 a.m.) UTC+3
Russian advances on the Vremevsky ledge near the village of Velyka Novosilka have slowed following a successful Ukrainian counterattack in the village of Novyi Komar.
Sitrep for Dec. 4-6, 2024 (as of 11 a.m. UTC+3)
On the Vremevsky ledge, after the Russian Armed Forces partially encircled the village of Velyka Novosilka, the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched a counterattack and reclaimed the village of Novyi Komar. A recent video shows Russian soldiers retreating across fields, while another shows a flag-raising photo op by the AFU's 48th Separate Assault Battalion, which successfully mopped-up Novyi Komar.
Sitrep for Dec. 2-4, 2024 (as of 11 a.m. UTC+3)
The situation on the Vremevsky Ledge has remained unchanged in recent days. However, in the southern part of the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces have advanced toward the village of Uspenivka and the Sukhi Yaly River, moving along the western edge of the pocket near the riverbed. We believe that this pocket could fall within a couple of days, with news of a Ukrainian withdrawal likely emerging after the fact.
Sitrep for Nov. 29-Dec. 2, 2024 (as of 11 a.m. UTC+3)
In recent days, the Russian Armed Forces have continued their advance on the Vremevsky ledge, gradually encircling the village of Velyka Novosilka. While the situation on the western flank remains unchanged, the RuAF have made notable progress on the eastern flank, moving southward near the village of Blahodatne. They have also managed to break through from Rozdolne toward the village of Novyi Komar, located north of Velyka Novosilka.
Sitrep for Nov. 27-29, 2024 (as of 11 a.m. UTC+3)
The Russian Armed Forces have reported further advances in the southern part of the Donetsk region. They are solidifying their positions on the eastern outskirts of the village of Velyka Novosilka and continuing their offensive toward the N-15 highway near the villages of Kostiantynopil and Andriivka. However, there have been no recent changes near the pocket along the Sukhi Yaly River. This may be due to the Armed Forces of Ukraine reinforcing the area with additional reserves to stabilize the situation, or it could reflect a decision by the Russian military leadership to intensify their push toward the N-15 highway to operationally, or possibly completely, encircle Ukrainian forces. As a result, the Vremevsky ledge has become the most...