Sitrep for Aug. 31-Sept. 3, 2026 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
In the Orikhiv direction, the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have captured the villages of Chervona Krynytsia (northeast of the town of Orikhiv) and Novopavlivka (northwest of Orikhiv). Given last year's claims that the villages of Mala Tokmachka and Novodanylivka had been captured, this means that, according to the MoD, Orikhiv is already almost surrounded. At the same time, only a flag-planting photo op was shown from Chervona Krynytsia, while no such footage has emerged from Novopavlivka. At present, these villages can be considered part of the contested area.
Sitrep for Aug. 27-31, 2026 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
Although summer is drawing to a close, the military campaign continues to intensify, and active fighting will most likely continue at least until the leaves fall and the muddy season sets in—possibly until the end of December, as was the case last year. Therefore, there is little point in discussing the results of the "summer offensive," nor should reports of yet another alleged deadline set by Putin for the capture of the Donbas be taken seriously. Even if such orders were issued, they were not followed by any significant acceleration of the offensive, nor were there noticeable personnel consequences for failing to meet the deadlines.
Sitrep for August 24-27, 2026 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
In the Dobropillia direction, where, according to our team and other analysts, the Russian Armed Forces made a localized breakthrough, the corresponding expansion of the "gray zone" has still not been reflected on DeepState's map. The Russian Ministry of Defense has announced the capture of the villages of Kucheriv Yar and Hannivka. However, the ministry has released only combat footage, which does not confirm even partial control of the villages. Nevertheless, individual Russian assault troops are already infiltrating these settlements.
Sitrep for August 20-24, 2026 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
The end of summer is approaching, but it is too early to speak of the results of the summer offensive: this year's Russian offensive campaign only intensified in the second half of the summer and will continue for at least another couple of months.
Sitrep for Aug. 17-20, 2026 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
In the Zaporizhzhia region, the Russian Ministry of Defense has claimed the capture of the village of Novosoloshyne, which lies west of the current frontline. In our assessment, the boundary of the contested area runs through the villages of Vozdvyzhivka and Rizdvianka, putting Novosoloshyne even farther behind the current line shown on the DeepState map, which is often updated with a delay.
Sitrep for Aug. 13-17, 2026 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
The main development on the frontline remains the successful Ukrainian operation in the Dnipropetrovsk region in the Oleksandrivka direction. Last week, Ukraine officially announced that it had liberated a large number of settlements over the past six months, and DeepState reflected these advances on its map. The Russian side responded almost immediately, publishing footage showing Russian flags in roughly the same areas where the Armed Forces of Ukraine had been advancing. OSINT researchers who examined these posts found that in some cases the claimed geolocation did not match the actual location; in others, the footage turned out to be old; and some videos had been generated using AI. The latter does not yet appear to be a systemic...
Sitrep for Aug. 10-13, 2026 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
On Aug. 12, analysts finally marked the results of the Ukrainian six-month offensive in the Oleksandrivka direction on the map, timing the update to coincide with a post by the Ukrainian Air Assault Forces about the operation, which began on Jan. 29, 2026. The Armed Forces of Ukraine made most of their gains in the Dnipropetrovsk region, although they also captured several settlements in the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions.
Sitrep for Aug. 7-10, 2026 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
In the Zaporizhzhia region, in the Orikhiv direction, Ukrainian strikes were recorded against a suspected Russian position in the northwestern part of the village of Mala Tokmachka. Based on this, as well as the presence of Russian assault troops on the outskirts of the town of Orikhiv, some observers concluded that Mala Tokmachka may already be under the control of the Russian Armed Forces (in which case, the soldiers would have reached these positions from the southeastern part of the village). However, we consider it much more likely that the assault troops advanced toward Orikhiv from the village of Robotyne via the village of Novodanylivka (a similar route is shown on the map produced by the pro-Russian Slivochnyi Kapriz project)...
Sitrep for Aug. 3-7, 2026 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
In the Kharkiv region, Russian forces continue advancing from two directions toward the village of Bilyi Kolodiaz. They are still attempting to advance from the village of Artilne toward the villages of Ustynivka and Ivashkyne, while also pushing from the northwest—from the village of Vovchanski Khutory toward Bilyi Kolodiaz itself. Meanwhile, the MoD has claimed to have captured Ustynivka, Bilyi Kolodiaz and the village of Baksheivka to its east. This time, however, the ministry did not even release any flag-planting photo ops, publishing only combat footage. Nevertheless, this sector of the frontline has become much more active than it was in previous months.
Sitrep for July 31-Aug. 03, 2026 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
Last week, footage emerged of a Russian armored vehicle assault in the Dobropillia direction in the Donetsk region, where such attacks have become relatively rare in recent months. Now, footage has been published from the border area of the Kharkiv region showing the Armed Forces of Ukraine launching a tank assault. The video shows Russian drones striking abandoned Ukrainian tanks near the villages of Khatnie and Ambarne. The tanks are fitted with large improvised cope cages, making it difficult to identify their models. The fact that the footage shows strikes against abandoned vehicles suggests that these were far from the first attempts to destroy them: after the initial strikes—likely the ones that immobilized the tanks—the Ukrainian...