Sitrep for Feb. 17-21, 2025 (as of 10:30 a.m. UTC+3)
In the South Donetsk direction, the Russian Armed Forces have secured positions in the village of Novoocheretuvate, north of the village of Velyka Novosilka, and to the west, they have partially taken control of the village of Novosilka. Thus, over the past week, Russian forces have slightly expanded their zone of control in this area
Sitrep for Feb. 14-17, 2025 (as of 11 a.m. UTC+3)
The prospect of negotiations appears to have led to an intensification of fighting on multiple fronts, with both sides actively conducting offensive or counter-offensive operations. While these efforts do not always result in territorial gains, they have contributed to a rise in clashes. According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in the 24 hours from the morning of Feb. 15 to the morning of Feb. 16, there were 261 combat clashes, the highest number since the beginning of the year. In recent weeks, this figure had fluctuated around 100. We link this surge directly to the upcoming negotiations, as successful advances could strengthen the bargaining positions of both sides.
Sitrep for Feb. 10-14, 2025 (as of 09:30 a.m. UTC+3)
In the South Donetsk direction, after a prolonged pause, Russian forces have begun advancing westward from the occupied village of Velyka Novosilka, near the village of Novosilka. It appears that the Russian Armed Forces have launched an offensive in the area between the villages of Novopil, Zelene Pole and Novosilka in the Donetsk region—a development that Ukrainian military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets had anticipated.
Sitrep for Feb. 3-10, 2025 (as of 10:30 a.m. UTC+3)
Over the past week, the frontline has not undergone any significant changes, including in the South Donetsk direction, where Russian forces were expected to push deeper on the western flank, into the southern part of the Donetsk region.
Sitrep for Jan. 31–Feb. 3, 2025 (as of 10:30 a.m. UTC+3)
With the capture of the Vremivka salient, we will now consider the remaining free southern part of the Donetsk region as a separate direction—stretching from the village of Zelenivka to the village of Rivnopil, located near the border with the Zaporizhzhia region. According to Ukrainian military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets, the Russian Armed Forces are expected to launch offensive actions toward the Donetsk–Zaporizhzhia highway, west of the village of Konstantynopil, near the villages of Bahatyr and Komar. To avoid the formation of a salient vulnerable to attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the west, Russian forces will likely attempt to straighten the frontline from Zelenivka to Rivnopil. If this happens, the villages...
Sitrep for Jan. 27-31, 2025 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
The suspension of USAID-funded programs, financed by the US budget, has disrupted numerous humanitarian projects, led to mass layoffs within the agency and drawn criticism, including from the United Nations. In Ukraine, among other concerns, projects providing medical and psychological assistance to military personnel, veterans and displaced persons, among others, are now at risk. Moving forward, funding for the most essential humanitarian efforts will fall on Ukraine’s leadership.
Sitrep for Jan. 24-27, 2025 (as of 10:30 a.m. UTC+3)
On the Vremivka salient, Russian forces appear to have captured the village of Velyka Novosilka. This is evidenced by geolocated videos showing Russian soldiers raising flags in various parts of the village and freely moving through its streets. Russia's Ministry of Defense has already announced the capture of Velyka Novosilka on its Telegram channel. However, since Ukrainian command has not officially confirmed the loss of the village, and the 110th Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which is operating in this area, reported on Jan. 26 that fighting for the village is still ongoing, analysts from DeepState seem to be refraining from explicitly confirming its capture.
Sitrep for Jan. 22-24, 2025 (as of 10:30 a.m. UTC+3)
Fighting continues in the Vremivka salient for the village of Velyka Novosilka, with its southeastern part already under Russian control and the remainder still contested. On the morning of Jan. 24, a video emerged showing a Russian flag geolocated in the center of Velyka Novosilka. Pro-Russian Telegram channels claim that forces from Ukraine's 110th Brigade have been encircled. These sources also report the presence of alleged foreign mercenaries in the village, attempts to establish a crossing over the Mokri Yaly River and strikes targeting it. However, it is possible that the majority of Ukrainian forces have already withdrawn from the area. In any case, it seems likely that the Vremivka salient will fall under Russian control in the...
Sitrep for Jan. 20-22, 2025 (as of 10:30 a.m. UTC+3)
On the Vremivka salient, the Russian Armed Forces continue their efforts to gain control of Velyka Novosilka, as confirmed by both DeepState and Ukrainian military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets. Holding the village is no longer feasible for the Armed Forces of Ukraine as Russian forces have entered its southeastern part, making it necessary for the AFU to withdraw. It is worth noting that all roads into and out of Velyka Novosilka are under Russian control, forcing Ukrainian forces to retreat over rugged terrain.
Sitrep for Jan. 17-20, 2025 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
Fighting has begun for the village of Velyka Novosilka in the Vremivka salient, where the situation has worsened significantly in recent days. After Russian forces advanced from the village of Novyi Komar, Velyka Novosilka became encircled on three sides, with the Mokri Yaly River forming the fourth boundary. Escape routes have been cut off, although Ukrainian forces could still cross the river, leaving behind their military equipment. It is plausible that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have already withdrawn from Velyka Novosilka, though no confirmation has been provided. In any case, the capture of the village appears imminent, as the AFU have little strategic advantage in continuing to hold it.