When the Fog of War Is Real: How Weather Influences the Battlefield
For much of history, the muddy season—the period between winter and spring or summer and fall when rain turns fields and dirt roads into impassable swamps—was seen as a natural pause in warfare. It offered armies a chance to regroup, bring up reserves and prepare for new offensives once conditions improved. The mud made movement nearly impossible, creating a de facto boundary between campaigns.
Brief Overview of Frontline Changes Over the Past Month
In the Sumy direction, the frontline did not change significantly in October. Russian forces made minor gains near the villages of Volodymyrivka and Varachyne, while intense fighting continues near the village of Yunakivka.
Can the Data on Russian Losses Published by the Hochu Zhit Project Be Trusted? A CIT Analysis
On Oct. 6, the Ukrainian project Hochu Zhit [I Want to Live] published what it said were figures on Russian military losses in the war against Ukraine since the beginning of 2025. If the data is authentic, the document could represent a unique source, offering, for the first time, a full picture of the Russian Armed Forces’ casualties, including the ratio of killed, wounded, missing and captured soldiers across the entire army, rather than within individual units or formations. Until now, researchers have had no comparable source, so it is unsurprising that this article drew significant attention. Our team therefore decided to examine the data and assess whether it can be considered as reliable.
CIT Records Highest Number of Civilians Casualties Since January 2024 for Two Months in a Row
According to counts in our Strikes on Civilian Infrastructure in Ukraine and Russia CIT Volunteer Summaries, attacks and shelling on both sides of the frontline in June 2025 killed at least 282 civilians and wounded a minimum of 1,972. These are the highest monthly casualty figures since our monitoring project began in January 2024. The situation worsened even more in July, with fatalities climbing by nearly 19% to 335 and the number of injured civilians increasing by 13% to 2,228.
Who Produces More Weapons—Russia or NATO?
In early July, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte made a striking claim: Russia now produces more ammunition in three months than all NATO countries combined produce in an entire year, effectively suggesting a twelvefold Russian advantage in ammunition production.
How Many Т-90M Tanks does Russia Produce? CIT Research
Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine, launched in February 2022 as a blitzkrieg-style operation, had by the year’s end devolved into a war of attrition. This shift was openly acknowledged by top political and military leaders on both sides, as well as by numerous military analysts. Indeed, such drawn-out conflicts are most likely when adversaries are relatively evenly matched in both military capability and will to fight.
Emergence of Light MLRS in RuAF Explains Presence of 107mm Rockets at 51st GRAU Arsenal Fire
On April 22, during explosions at the 51st GRAU [Main Missile and Artillery Directorate of the Russian Ministry of Defense] arsenal in Kirzhach, Vladimir region, various types of ammunition were scattered throughout the area. Among them were 107mm rockets that had not previously been in service with the Russian Armed Forces, as the army had no suitable launchers for them.
After-Parade Report 2025: 80th Anniversary of Victory. Parades Vehicle Numbers
Conflict Intelligence Team, working alongside volunteers, once again conducted a count of military equipment featured in Russia’s May 9 Victory Day parades, continuing a study that began in 2022 and includes data from 2023 and 2024. This year’s survey covered parades in 58 cities across the country—virtually all major commemorations held in honor of the Victory Day.
Strikes on Civilians in April Resulted in Highest Casualty Toll Since at Least January 2024
According to counts in our Strikes on Civilian Infrastructure in Ukraine and Russia CIT Volunteer Summary, at least 273 civilians were killed and another 1,748 were injured in April 2025 as a result of strikes on both sides of the frontline. In total, 2,021 people were affected by indiscriminate force—the highest number of casualties recorded in a single month since the summary’s full launch in January 2024.
Stalling the Advance: Russian Forces Exhausted or Preparing for the Battle of Pokrovsk?
Since December, the pace of Russian advance has been steadily declining, and over the past week (Feb. 3-9), it amounted to only 19.5 square kilometers [7.5 sq. mi] of Ukrainian territory, according to calculations by the independent media outlet Agentstvo [Agency], based on data from the Ukrainian OSINT project DeepState. According to the outlet’s estimates, this is the slowest rate of Russian territorial gains since June of last year.