CIT Records Highest Number of Civilians Casualties Since January 2024 for Two Months in a Row
According to counts in our Strikes on Civilian Infrastructure in Ukraine and Russia CIT Volunteer Summaries, attacks and shelling on both sides of the frontline in June 2025 killed at least 282 civilians and wounded a minimum of 1,972. These are the highest monthly casualty figures since our monitoring project began in January 2024. The situation worsened even more in July, with fatalities climbing by nearly 19% to 335 and the number of injured civilians increasing by 13% to 2,228.
While an increase in civilian casualties was also observed during last year's summer period, the escalation in 2025 is significantly more severe. The number of fatalities over the two summer months increased by 25% and injuries rose by nearly 30% compared to the same period last year.
As the illustration above shows, May was the only month with a decline in attacks on the civilian population. This lull coincided with the “ceasefire” Vladimir Putin proposed for the May 9 celebrations. The main reason was a reduction in airstrikes against Ukrainian cities, likely stemming from an active negotiation phase and the renewal of Istanbul Format peace talks. Under these circumstances, Russia opted to refrain from large-scale aerial attacks that typically result in high casualties in order to present a "peaceful" image to the Trump administration. When the talks, or their imitation, predictably led to no result, the Russian Armed Forces increased the scale of attacks in June and intensified them further in July. On the last day of July, a strike on Kyiv killed 31 civilians, including five children, and wounded 159 others. Also in July, Russia launched a record 6,298 Shahed-136 (Geran-2) loitering munitions and their decoys.
It is important to reiterate that indiscriminate force harms several times more civilians in Ukrainian-controlled territory than in occupied areas or within the Russian Federation. With the exception of May and July, there has been a consistent trend of a rising of casualties occurring in territories controlled by Kyiv. During June and July, four out of every five casualties occurred in these areas.
The increase in casualties in Ukrainian government-controlled territories is the primary driver of the overall trend we are observing. Throughout 2025, the number of casualties in occupied territories has remained relatively stable, averaging around 200 killed or injured per month. In Russia, however, there was a steady rise in casualties from January through May, a slight decline in June and an almost twofold spike in July. This is likely tied to the intensification of UAV strikes targeting military production facilities, energy infrastructure and transportation networks deep inside Russia. Although we do not include in our count the casualties resulting from strikes on legitimate military targets conducted with all necessary precautions (such as proportionality in the choice of weapons and timing of strikes), the sheer volume of drone attacks inevitably leads to an increase in civilian deaths and injuries from the falling debris of drones that are either shot down or disrupted by electronic warfare systems. Another key factor contributing to the rise in casualties is the growing number of small UAV attacks in the Russia-Ukraine border regions. The Belgorod region has been particularly affected. On some days, the number of casualties there has exceeded (1, 2) those in Kherson, a city widely associated with sustained aerial terror campaigns using drones to hunt civilians. As we have previously reported, the situation on the right bank of the Dnipro River remains dire. Regardless of which side is conducting these drone strikes, the deliberate targeting of civilian objects with camera-equipped UAVs constitutes a clear war crime and must be stopped. Civilians in Kherson, the Belgorod region and elsewhere must be protected from these attacks.
As noted earlier, the overall rise in casualties is primarily the result of Russia’s intensified missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities throughout the year. The peak occurred in June, when 160 people were killed and 1,338 others were injured by these weapons. In July, despite an increase in the number of Shahed-type drones launched, the lethality of airstrikes decreased slightly: 150 civilians were killed and 1,180 were injured by missiles and UAVs in unoccupied Ukrainian territories. This still surpasses the toll in April, when deadly strikes on a playground in the city of Kryvyi Rih and the city center in Sumy took place.
Given Russia’s increased production of long-range weapons over the past year and its evident unwillingness to engage in genuine negotiations, a reduction in the scale of attacks on Ukrainian cities appears unlikely. Furthermore, Russia’s choice of targets and the proportionality of the weapons used often appear arbitrary or excessive. Under these conditions, only the delivery of additional air defense systems, along with the development of effective, low-cost countermeasures against Shahed-type loitering munitions, can meaningfully reduce civilian casualties in Ukraine.