Stalling the Advance: Russian Forces Exhausted or Preparing for the Battle of Pokrovsk?

Since December, the pace of Russian advance has been steadily declining, and over the past week (Feb. 3-9), it amounted to only 19.5 square kilometers [7.5 sq. mi] of Ukrainian territory, according to calculations by the independent media outlet Agentstvo [Agency], based on data from the Ukrainian OSINT project DeepState. According to the outlet’s estimates, this is the slowest rate of Russian territorial gains since June of last year.

Although the rate of advance over a given period does not always precisely reflect the situation on the frontline, such a prolonged and pronounced decline cannot be attributed to random or localized factors. Instead, it reflects broader trends within the opposing armies.

The two most likely explanations, in our view, are:

1. The depletion of Russia's offensive potential;
2. An operational pause taken by the Russian command in preparation for what appears to be the key battle of the first half of 2025—the battle for the town of Pokrovsk.

Evidence of the Exhaustion of Military Potential

The first explanation is supported by the increasing use of civilian vehicles by the Russian Armed Forces in assault operations, as well as the introduction of pack animals into the Russian army. Just a year ago, both of these developments were discussed by military analysts only as a joke.

An additional argument is the situation with personnel. As Meduza [international Russian-language online media outlet] previously noted, based on data on national payments for enlisting in the armed forces, recruitment rates in the third quarter barely covered the losses of the RuAF, making it impossible to form reserves. While data for the fourth quarter, which could clarify the trend, remains unavailable, the ongoing competition among regions to increase sign-up bonuses throughout the second half of 2024 and the first month of 2025 may indicate serious difficulties in attracting new recruits.

Another indication of personnel shortage is the growing number of videos showing wounded soldiers participating in combat operations. Six months ago, footage from forward positions featuring soldiers on crutches or with a cane seemed more anecdotal. Now, however, they reflect a more systemic practice.

The trend of sending inadequately treated wounded soldiers back to the frontline has intensified. Although such cases were systematically observed in 2024, the condition of hospital patients whom the command deems fit to return to service is becoming increasingly severe. Soldiers are being taken back the day after surgery, with open wounds, untreated drainage tubes or Ilizarov apparatuses still in place. Moreover, as noted above, these individuals are not just returning to military units but are being sent directly to forward positions.

Operational-tactical explanation

However, the situation in the Russian army may not be dire enough to be the sole explanation for the slowdown in the advance. It may primarily be related to an operational pause deliberately taken by the RuAF. Looking at the map, it becomes clear that the nearest strategic objective—within the context of this war—for the Russian command is the capture of the town of Pokrovsk, a key element of the Armed Forces of Ukraine’s defense in the Donbas. At the moment, the RuAF continues to expand the flanks for the upcoming operation, which will require the involvement of a significant amount of both forces and resources.

Thus, it seems quite likely that the RuAF is currently replenishing the losses in manpower and equipment sustained during nearly uninterrupted assaults over the past year. Additionally, they are stockpiling logistical resources to support a planned operation. At the same time, units may be undergoing redeployment to reinforce the Pokrovsk grouping.

Following the recent capture of the village of Velyka Novosilka and the anticipated "closure" of the Kurakhove pocket—which is unlikely to occur before the fall of the village of Kostiantynopil—the Russian command will be able to redirect additional forces from these sectors. Moreover, we are already seeing partial evidence of such decisions. In the Kurakhove direction, at least several battalions of the 5th and 110th Motorized Rifle Brigades have been redeployed to the Pokrovsk area. It is likely that after replenishment, the remaining battalions will join them. However, all these actions take time, which affects the pace of the RuAF's advance.

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Beyond this, the situation on the frontline is undoubtedly influenced by developments within the AFU. Recently, a significant number of important decisions have been announced regarding the replenishment of Ukrainian units with personnel and changes in command, both in terms of the military leadership system and specific high-ranking commanders.

However, in our view, these changes are not the primary factor behind the trend observed since late last year. That said, they may have contributed to the strengthening of this trend in recent weeks, and their impact could grow in the future.

In our opinion, the events of the coming weeks should provide an answer as to which of the above factors are decisive. They will also determine the trajectory of combat operations in the coming months of the war.