Sitrep for Aug. 4-8, 2025 (as of 9:30 a.m. UTC+3)
Frontline Situation Update
In the Lyman direction, Russian forces continue fighting for the village of Torske: until now, they had been trying to enter it from the north, and are now also attacking from the southeast.
A bit further south, in the Siversk direction, fighting continues for the Serebrianske forestry, which, until early August, had not resulted in any significant changes to the frontline. Now, however, due to advances by the Russian Armed Forces, the situation has become more difficult for Ukrainian forces.
There have been reports of an alleged breakthrough in the Kostiantynivka (Toretsk) direction by Russian forces, either from the east (from the village of Dyliivka) or from the southwest, in the area south of the Kleban-Byk Reservoir.
Footage has also emerged of a drone repelling an attack by Russian armored vehicles on the village of Katerynivka, reportedly filmed on Aug. 3. It is believed that the goal was to suddenly cut off the last supply route for the Armed Forces of Ukraine grouping south of the reservoir. It is unclear whether Ukrainian soldiers remain in this pocket. Katerynivka and the neighboring village of Kleban-Byk may already be in the contested area. There were also reports of attacks on a Ukrainian strongpoint on the eastern shore of the reservoir—the RuAF attempted to storm it.
In the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces are attempting to enter the town of Rodynske or at least cut off the road north of it, which runs through the town of Bilytske. If they succeed, in addition to severing this logistical route, they will also be able to get within range of the last remaining supply route through the village of Hryshyne, which leads northeast from the town of Pokrovsk. Additionally, advances are once again being reported on the western flank of the direction near the village of Udachne.
It was in the area of Udachne that a video was recorded showing a Russian soldier shooting a civilian. At such close range, the soldier could not have failed to see that the man was wearing civilian clothing and carrying personal belongings. This is yet another Russian war crime. It is also another example that even directly on the frontline, civilians are still present.
New videos are emerging of Russian soldiers entering the southern and central parts of Pokrovsk. Civilians remain in this town as well.
Despite the fact that the situation is currently quite dangerous for the AFU in the Lyman, Pokrovsk, Toretsk and partly the Kupiansk directions (the RuAF has come close to the town of Kupiansk), some Ukrainian units are likely still engaged in fighting near the village of Tyotkino in Russia’s Kursk region—this was reported by the pro-Russian Arkhangel Spetsnaza Telegram channel. In our view, the units of the AFU’s 47th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade deployed there could have instead improved the situation for Ukrainian forces in one of the aforementioned directions. At this point, we see no military logic in the fighting in the Kursk region.
Peace Talks
We expect that after the ultimatum expires on Aug. 8, Trump will not follow through on his threats to impose sanctions, but will instead declare that he views the outcome of Steve Witkoff's meeting with Putin in Moscow as progress in the negotiation process. The Russian side has reportedly requested that a meeting be organized between Trump and Putin. There were also hints of a possible trilateral meeting including Volodymyr Zelenskyy, but this was soon refuted. Trump has stated his readiness to meet with Putin as early as next week, even if the meeting does not include direct negotiations with Zelenskyy, but we anticipate this event will be postponed. It is worth noting that the last meeting at such a high level took place in 2021, before the start of the full-scale invasion.
Zelenskyy stated that it seems, "Russia is now more inclined toward a ceasefire." It is unclear what data he is basing this on (we assume the statement was intended primarily for a domestic Ukrainian audience).
Regarding a potential meeting with Zelenskyy, Putin stated that he has "nothing against it in principle... but certain conditions must be created for this, and unfortunately, we are still far from creating such conditions." Most likely, he is referring to Ukraine's unwillingness to recognize the annexation of four of the country's regions and Crimea, and possibly other conditions. Overall, in our view, this signifies another delay in the negotiation process. (After this summary was recorded, Bloomberg reported that Putin's demands include the recognition of Crimea's annexation and the transfer of the Donetsk and the Luhansk regions to the Russian Federation.)
Ahead of the meeting between Witkoff and Putin on Aug. 5, a Bloomberg source reported that the Russian side might offer a mutual cessation of air attacks with Ukraine as a concession to Trump. We do not rule out such a suspension for a short period, but we doubt that Russia is genuinely prepared to stop bombing Ukrainian cities for a long time.
On Aug. 8, a meeting will be held at the White House between Donald Trump, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev for the official signing ceremony of a treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan (contrary to Trump's words, a comprehensive peace treaty cannot be concluded without amendments to the Armenian Constitution). The document will include a provision granting the United States exclusive rights to create a strategic transport corridor through Armenia's Zangezur region, which will be named the "Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity." Russia had sought to be the sole arbiter between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, but after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the United States has taken its place.
In some Russian Telegram channels, in the early hours of Aug. 8, rumors appeared about the alleged start of the Ukrainian Spiderweb-2 operation: reports mentioned FPV drones being launched from cars in the Saratov region, and possibly in the Rostov or Penza regions, though other channels denied this.
In the early hours of Aug. 6, Russian drones attacked the Orlovka gas compressor station in the Odesa region. This station is part of the route through which Azerbaijani gas is supplied to Ukraine, so pro-Russian sources have already called this a strike against "Azerbaijani political and economic ambitions." At the same time, it is a direct strike on Ukrainian energy infrastructure ahead of the heating season. According to the analytical company ExPro, Ukraine’s gas reserves are at their lowest level in 12 years, with gas storage facilities less than one-third full. As of Aug. 5, Ukraine’s underground storage contained 10 billion cubic meters of gas, while about 13 billion cubic meters are needed for the winter period.
An unusual video was published showing an FPV drone strike on the Kherson thermal power plant. One drone smashed a window, and another flew inside through the opening and hit electrical equipment. We believe that to some extent this strike was effective, as power outages were observed in the Kherson region afterward.
Ukraine continues strikes on Russian railway infrastructure. In the early hours of Aug. 5 and Aug. 6, the Tatsinskaya railway station in the Rostov region was attacked, and in the early hours of Aug. 7, two railway stations in the Volgograd region were targeted.
Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries have also resumed: the Afipsky refinery in the Krasnodar region was attacked in the early hours of Aug. 7, while the Novokuybyshevsky refinery in the Samara region and the Ryazan refinery were hit in the early hours of Aug. 2.
In the early hours of Aug. 5, the RuAF attacked the Lozova railway station in the Kharkiv region, just north of Pavlohrad. The strike resulted in the death of the duty mechanic. President Zelenskyy stated that more than 25 Shahed-136 (Geran-2) loitering munitions were used in this attack.
In the early hours of Aug. 2, Ukrainian drones attacked an airfield in Prymorsko-Akhtarsk, where satellite images suggest Shahed-136 (Geran-2) UAVs were stored.
Additionally, the AFU continue to locate bridges mined by Russian troops in border areas of Russia and destroy them using drones: on Aug. 2, a bridge over the Tsata River in the Bryansk region was blown up, and on Aug. 7, a video was published showing a similar bridge demolition in the village of Novopetrovka in the Belgorod region.
Western Assistance
Maj. Gen. Mike Keller, deputy commander of NATO’s Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine, reported that several months ago, Russia severely damaged a Patriot air defense system’s radar vehicle. We believe this refers to a May 2025 strike by an Iskander missile on Patriot positions in the Dnipropetrovsk region. Keller said that while the damage initially seemed too extensive for the radar to be salvaged, German engineers managed to repair it.
On Aug. 1, Germany’s Ministry of Defense announced the delivery of two Patriot batteries from its army reserves within two to three months, with the first two launchers expected to arrive early this month. As we understand it, this follows a US-proposed arrangement allowing European countries to transfer its Patriot systems to Ukraine and order replacements from the United States on a priority list.
A document was posted on the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency’s website, approving the sale of military equipment to Ukraine. The $104 million deal covers equipment, repair services, and long-term support for the operation of M777 155mm howitzers, along with training and technical assistance. The agreement does not include new howitzers, only maintenance and supply for those Ukraine already has. Similar documents recently surfaced for comparable amounts, addressing maintenance for Hawk air defense systems, Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, and M109 self-propelled howitzers. Ruslan Leviev explains on his personal Telegram channel why such documents cover repairs for previously supplied equipment, as opposed to new deliveries.
A video has emerged showing Ukrainian forces tracking a Russian Grad multiple-launch rocket system at forward positions and remotely mining its retreat route with drones. The vehicle was destroyed after hitting a mine.
The Ukrainian service of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty released full surveillance footage from a CCTV camera in Bucha, capturing the murder of 70-year-old local resident Volodymyr Rubailo by Russian soldiers on Yablonska Street on March 4, 2022, followed by looting. Previously, only select clips from this video had been published.
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