Sitrep for Aug. 29-Sept. 1, 2025 (as of 8 a.m. UTC+3)

Frontline Situation Update

The main focus in the Pokrovsk direction remains the Dobropillia breakthrough, where Ukrainian forces have cleared an area near the village of Kucheriv Yar, according to researcher Thorkill, who cited new satellite imagery. As a result, more than half of the breakthrough has already been eliminated, with only a small section remaining at the base of the salient, in addition to groups of Russian soldiers who remain encircled in the area and are likely hiding in the surrounding forests.

At the same time, according to researcher WarUnitObserver and the DeepState map, the Russian command has redeployed the 70th Motorized Rifle Division from the Kherson direction to the area of the town of Bakhmut, while naval infantry units, including elements of the 336th, 40th and 61st Naval Infantry Brigades, and the 177th Naval Infantry Regiment, were relocated from the Sumy direction to the area near the village of Popiv Yar. Airborne units, likely the 11th Air Assault Brigade and elements of the 76th Air Assault Division, were also spotted in the vicinity of the Dobropillia breakthrough. These forces are intended to compensate for losses in the Pokrovsk direction and reinforce the Russian grouping in Kostiantynivka and possibly Siversk directions. We believe that after the initial breakthrough near the town of Dobropillia, the Russian Armed Forces have shifted to an operational pause, halting their advance, while the Armed Forces of Ukraine have launched their counterattacks.

The naval infantry units redeployed to Popiv Yar are likely being prepared for an offensive toward the town of Druzhkivka, located on the route between the town of Kostiantynivka and the city of Kramatorsk. Its capture would serve two purposes: first, to enable the gradual encirclement of Kostiantynivka, and second, to create conditions for an advance toward the southern outskirts of Kramatorsk.

The forces redeployed to Bakhmut may be used not only to encircle Kostiantynivka but also to reinforce the Russian grouping operating in the Siversk direction, particularly near the village of Serebrianka and in the Serebrianske forestry. In any case, it is reasonable to expect the resumption of active offensive operations in the near future.

It is worth noting that in the past couple of weeks, Druzhkivka has been subjected to particularly intense strikes by FAB-series air-dropped bombs equipped with UMPK [Universal Gliding and Correction Module], drones and rocket artillery. Such attacks often precede offensive operations.

Earlier we reported on the presence of Ukrainian forces on the eastern flank in the Pokrovsk direction in the contested area near the villages of Myrne and Malynivka. In recent days, the situation there has remained largely unchanged, with fighting continuing, including with the use of armored vehicles. Footage appeared showing a Russian attack near the village of Novoekonomichne by a mechanized column advancing toward the town of Myrnohrad from the direction of Malynivka. The column included two tanks, five infantry fighting vehicles, two MT-LB multi-purpose armored vehicles, an armored personnel carrier, as well as motorcycles and quad bikes.

In the southern part of the Donetsk region, Russian forces are still trying to push the Ukrainian army back across the administrative border of the Dnipropetrovsk region, where they have already seized a pair of villages. Russia’s MoD claims to have captured the village of Komyshuvakha in Donetsk, located almost right on the regional border. Yet, footage released showing a Russian flag inside the village is not enough to confirm it is now under Russian control.

Researcher Playfra noted that, according to his information, Ukrainian troops have already withdrawn from the village, leaving only Russian assault infantry, but it is premature to say the Russian army has fully secured it. An analysis of the terrain shows that the captured villages of Zaporizke and Novoheorhiivka in the Dnipropetrovsk region, along with Maliivka—still contested—sit on elevated ground, while Komyshuvakha and the disputed village of Vorone (1, 2, 3), where Russian soldiers are present, lie in lower terrain to the northwest. Holding a nearly encircled village under such conditions is highly disadvantageous. On Sept. 1, the DeepState project announced Komyshuvakha had been captured.

In the broader discussion about Russia’s infiltration tactics by small assault groups, it is worth noting that Russian soldiers are making active use of counter-thermal cloaks. These camouflage coverings are designed to reduce body heat signatures and hinder detection by thermal cameras. In open terrain, however, they often fail to conceal movement: the fabrics appear abnormally cold, creating a stark contrast with their surroundings. There are numerous examples of infantrymen wearing counter-thermal cloaks being detected and struck by drones equipped with thermal imaging. Still, according to Western military analysts who visited Ukraine in July, counter-thermal cloaks can prove effective if troops move in dense vegetation or along forest lines.

On Aug. 30, a meeting of the Russian MoD collegium took place, during which Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov stated that the Group of Troop "East" had allegedly almost completely blocked the town of Kupiansk and now controls about half of its territory. A map of the frontline was shown at the meeting, but it differed significantly from the actual situation on the ground. In particular, several areas northwest of Chasiv Yar were marked as being under Russian control, including settlements where Russian troops have never been observed and whose capture the MoD has not officially announced. These discrepancies were so large that they surprised even pro-Russian milbloggers.

At the same meeting, Deputy Minister of Defense Colonel-General Andrey Bulyga reported that for the first time, the MoD had organized the purchase of dehydrators to extend the shelf life and reduce the weight of food supplies, as well as to enable its delivery using unmanned systems. We reported on the difficulties in supplying assault groups that have penetrated deep into Ukrainian positions in the previous sitrep.

On the morning of Aug. 30, the first use of FP-5 Flamingo cruise missiles probably took place. On Aug. 31, the Astra media outlet reported that as a result of a strike with Neptune cruise missiles on a military facility in the village of Voloshino near Armyansk in occupied Crimea, six patrol boats were damaged and a serviceman was killed. Later, the Ukrainian project Militarnyi, citing its own sources, wrote that in fact, the Federal Security Service (FSB) Border Troops facility was hit by Flamingo missiles. On the same day, footage of reportedly Flamingo missile launches appeared online.

Sentinel-2 satellite imagery taken after the strike on the facility near Armyansk shows black burn marks at the impact sites, confirming the locations of the missile strikes.

The Ukrainian Main Directorate of Intelligence reported that on the morning of Aug. 30, during a UAV strike on the Hvardiiske airfield near Simferopol, two Mil Mi-8 helicopters and a tugboat were destroyed. Planet Labs satellite images show the presence of burn marks at the locations where the helicopters had previously been stationed.

Western Assistance

In an interview with Fox News, US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker stated that the United States is giving Ukraine the capability to strike deep inside Russia. The meaning behind this statement remains unclear: it could imply the supply of ERAM (Extended Range Attack Munition) missiles, potential new deliveries of ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles or simply that the US is no longer imposing restrictions on Ukraine’s use of long-range strike capabilities. During the broadcast, a journalist asked Whitaker to comment on reports alleging that Vladimir Putin, “in the style of African warlords”, was supposedly using child soldiers. Whitaker replied that Russia continues to kill its own citizens and use inexperienced soldiers, adding that reports of child soldiers on the frontline did not surprise him. However, such a statement—in response to claims that are unsubstantiated and inaccurate—does not fully reflect Whitaker’s official position.

On Aug. 28, the US State Department approved the sale of 3,350 ERAM missiles to Ukraine along with 3,350 Embedded Global Positioning System (GPS) / Inertial Navigation Systems (INS) (EGI) with Selective Availability Anti-Spoofing Module (SAASM), Y-Code or M-Code, for an estimated cost of $825 million, according to the Defense Security Cooperation Agency.

The principal contractors will be Zone 5 Technologies and CoAspire, with funding provided by Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway and the US Foreign Military Financing program. It is not yet known how soon deliveries will begin. In February 2024, The War Zone reported that the US Air Force had not yet disclosed the target unit cost of ERAM missiles but stated that the manufacturer was obliged to produce at least 1,000 units within two years of signing the contract.

The Telegraph reports that Trump is allegedly discussing the possible deployment of American private military company personnel to Ukraine. It is claimed that US military contractors could be involved in restoring and strengthening defensive lines. However, the exact meaning of this claim remains unclear. It is unlikely that American mercenaries would be tasked with digging trenches or overseeing fortification construction, as they lack the relevant expertise. Ukrainian combat engineers have a far better understanding of which fortifications are currently effective. In this war, conditions change so rapidly that even some Ukrainian fortifications built in 2023-2024 have already proven ineffective against modern UAV strikes and fail to provide adequate protection. Similarly, US PMC staff do not have the necessary experience to train Ukrainian troops in up-to-date combat tactics. As early as the beginning of the war—well before the widespread introduction of drones—Ukrainian servicemen had already criticized outdated training programs in Europe. The report also claims that US contractors will be tasked with protecting American commercial interests in Ukraine. However, given that the primary threats stem not from terrorist acts or insurgent attacks but from air-dropped bombs, missiles and drones, it remains unclear how effectively such contractors could fulfill this role.

Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin has signed a government resolution stipulating that decisions on regular conscription will now remain valid for one year from the date they are made. This means that once a draft board decides to call up a conscription-age man during the spring or fall campaign, that decision will remain valid not only for the current conscription period but also for the next one. Previously, such decisions expired at the end of each conscription cycle, and new lists of conscripts had to be compiled every six months. The decree on year-round conscription currently exists only in the form of a draft law and is scheduled to be considered in September.

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