November 11, 2022

Sitrep for November 10–11 (as of 15:00)

The situation on the frontline

The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that on November 11, at 05:00, the withdrawal of Russian forces from the right bank of the Dnipro was completed. It is unclear to what extent the report reflects the actual situation. Also, the statement does not mean that the entire abandoned territory will now quickly come under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Analyst Def Mon shows a map of strikes in northern Ukraine.

Pro-Russian journalist Semyon Pegov (a.k.a. Wargonzo) reported that the Russian forces had entered Pavlivka near Vuhledar.

A video was also posted showing the hoisting of the Russian flag on a damaged house somewhere on the outskirts of the settlement.

Ukrainian forces have liberated Pavlivka in the Kherson region, there is a geolocated video.

Def Mon shows a map of the liberated territories that have already come under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It is important that the AFU managed to liberate Kyselivka in the Mykolaiv region, where a canal supplying Mykolaiv with water begins.

The President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced 41 liberated settlements, where the Ukrainian flag was raised again, in another video address.

People's Deputy [member of Ukrainian parliament] Roman Kostenko, who is now fighting in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said that the entire Mykolaiv region has been completely liberated and is under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine now.

The pro-Russian telegram channel Grey Zone reported that the first groups of Ukrainian intelligence officers and special operations forces had entered Kherson.

Our team assumes that if Ukrainian forces liberate Kherson in the coming days, they risk coming under Russian fire.

On the night of November 11, the Antonivskyi bridge was blown up. Judging by the video footage that appeared in the morning, two spans collapsed at once. Our team is inclined to believe that only the retreating Russian forces could have caused such damage with explosives.

A railway bridge slightly up the Dnipro from the Antonivskyi bridge has also been blown up.

All night long Russian soldiers were crossing the Dnipro River. Satellite images show several ferries and barges crossing the river.

A Dutch researcher counted at least 8 ferry crossings, which operated in different parts of the Dnipro.

Already in the morning, there was a video of Russian soldiers walking on foot across the barge bridge, which was located near the Antonivskyi bridge.

Video footage later appeared showing damage to these barges, and now this bridge is also out of service.

Evidence of demining the Kherson region by the Ukrainian troops is emerging.

Despite the fact that the Russian Ministry of Defense is claiming that not a single vehicle was left behind during the withdrawal of forces from the right bank of the Dnipro River (there were allegedly no casualties among personnel either), video footage of the Ukrainian soldiers shows the first trophies. For example, a T-90 tank or a T-62M tank.


There are videos from different settlements with damaged Russian vehicles: armored personnel carriers, engineer vehicles, and amphibious assault vehicles.

In addition, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported that Ukrainian troops stalled 30-40 km from the crossing due to minefields, artillery and airstrikes. Press Secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov refused to comment on the decision to withdraw troops and forwarded all questions to the Russian Ministry of Defense.

On November 10, Minister of Defense of Ukraine Oleksiy Reznikov stated that the withdrawal of Russian troops from the right bank of the Dnipro would take at least a week, because there were about 40,000 Russian servicemen in the Kherson region and a significant part of them were on the right bank of the river.

On the night of October 11, Russian forces conducted a massive strike on a residential area in Mykolaiv. At the moment, six are reported dead, the removal of rubble continues.

Evidence emerges of shelling of a temporary deployment point of the Russian military in Alchevsk on the night of November 6th. At least 15 people reported killed.

An additional package of American aid to Ukraine has been announced. It will include:

  • HAWK system surface-to-air missiles;
  • Four Avenger SAM systems and 192 Stinger missiles;
  • Additional rockets for HIMARS MLRS;
  • 21,000 155 mm artillery shells;
  • 500 precision guided 155 mm shells;
  • 10,000 120 mm mortar shells;
  • 100 HMMWV armored cars;
  • 400 grenade launchers;
  • small arms, optics for them and more than 20,000,000 rounds of ammunition;
  • obstacle clearing equipment;
  • Low-temperature protection equipment.

Spain has also decided to supply Ukraine with two additional HAWK air defense systems.

France has decided to provide six more Caesar self-propelled guns.

There is increasing evidence of Ukrainian Excalibur high-precision artillery shell strikes on military vehicles in different sectors of the front.

Another video has been published showing a Ukrainian Mi-24 firing unguided aircraft rockets. A D-30 122 mm howitzer is also present in the video. That is a rare caliber and both sides have long had a limited amount of such shells. Probably, the Ukrainian side managed to solve the issue.

On November 16, the Ministry of Digital Transformation of Russia, on its gosuslugi.ru portal, will stop accepting online applications for mobilization exemptions of employees of IT companies and telecom operators.

The chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, estimated Russian losses at 100,000 and added that Ukrainian losses might be comparable.

Our hypothetical estimate of losses (without prisoners of war and refuseniks).

Pro-Russian forces: 25k killed and 75k wounded = 100k

Ukrainian forces: 16k killed (1.5 times less) and 64k wounded = 80k

The Anti-Corruption Foundation of Alexei Navalny released an investigation on General Surovikin (the current commander of the Russian forces in Ukraine) making money on the Syrian war.