November 12, 2022

Sitrep for November 11–12 (as of 15:00)

The situation on the frontline

According to analyst Def Mon, almost the entire right bank of the Dnipro has been liberated by Ukrainian forces as he marked on the map.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces are still near Svatove, but there are no changes on the frontline yet. Probably, part of the AFU units, which developed the offensive in the Kherson direction, will be transferred to the Svatove axis.

The Wagner Group forces continue to gradually advance towards Bakhmut. Analyst Def Mon doubts that the pro-Russian forces will succeed in capturing Bakhmut with the forces available.

Fighting for Pavlivka continues on the Vuhledar axis. We have not seen any credible evidence of the capture of Pavlivka by Russian forces yet.

Maxar published satellite images of the bridges that the Russian army had blown up, moving away from the right bank of the Dnipro. Several spans of the Antonivsky bridge collapsed into the water, and the barge bridge parallel to it was also partially sunk.

The Antonivsky railway bridge, the Darivsky bridge across the Inhulets river and the automobile part of the bridge over the dam of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station (where the water release sluice is located) were also blown up.

The Antonivsky railway bridge
The Antonivsky railway bridge
The Darivsky bridge
The bridge over the Kakhovka dam
The bridge over the Kakhovka dam

There is a video showing the destruction of this crossing over the dam.

The Kakhovka HPP might not be able to generate electricity after the explosion.

Ruslan's prediction about when the AFU will enter Kherson was proven wrong. According to our team, it is either due to the fact that the Russian Armed Forces managed to organize the movement of the 30,000 strong group across the Dnipro within the shortest possible period of time (in 2 nights), or the withdrawal of Russian forces had begun long before the commander of the Russian army, Sergei Surovikin reported it to Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. This process might have gone unnoticed due to the systematic lack of communication with the Kherson region.

The number of Ukrainian trophies (captured Russian military vehicles) indirectly confirms the fact that the withdrawal of Russian troops was not swift. To date, the number of captured military vehicles that can be seen is not as large as it was on the Kharkiv axis. Especially taking into account the fact that there had been quite a lot of military vehicles on the right bank of the Dnipro before the withdrawal.

Russian commanders apparently have carried out an error analysis session. There was evidence that the 76th Airborne Division paratroopers blew up tanks that could not be evacuated during the withdrawal.

Radio Liberty journalist Mark Krutov turned attention to satellite images taken in mid-October, showing empty ferries moving toward the right bank. Def Mon also suggests that the withdrawal began in mid-October and had been going on for many weeks.

Citizens of Kherson are extremely positive about the return of the city under Ukrainian control.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made an address on the return of Kherson and noted that the Ukrainian army is still on the outskirts of Kherson, but special units have already entered the city.

According to the head of the National Police of Ukraine, Ihor Klymenko, "stabilization measures" have begun in Kherson - essentially a cleanup operation. It could take several weeks.

Yaroslav Yanushevych, head of the Kherson Regional Military Administration, urged residents who had left the region not to return home for the time being since shelling of liberated settlements may continue, and vast areas of the region are mined.

Evidence is emerging that some Russian soldiers remained on the right bank for some reason, possibly falling behind their units. Pictures show them changing into civilian clothes and trying to hide. Along with saboteurs, such people will be dealt with by the Ukrainian army and the National Police.

Oleksiy Arestovich (the advisor to the head of the President’s Office of Ukraine) said that the Ukrainian army will not attack Russian forces on the left bank head-on. All experts now agree on the logic of this step.

According to the Oryx project, Ukrainian forces have now seized more than 2,500 vehicles. A total of 7,808 Russian vehicles have been visually confirmed as lost.

Mobilization news

The story with mobilized people whose relatives went to the Luhansk region to rescue their close ones continues. The mobilized from the Kursk region were found by their relatives and other Russian servicemen in the woods without food or command. Their legal status is still unclear. Another group of mobilized who retreated from artillery fire cannot return to their units because Russian checkpoints block their way back. According to a wife of one of the soldiers, her husband and some of his colleagues want to return to the unit and sign a contract for three months, hoping that as contract soldiers they will not be sent to the frontline. It is unknown what this assumption is based on.

Many pro-Russian Telegram channels write that the behavior of the mobilized soldiers near Svatove reminds them of Syrian soldiers who also tended to scatter en masse the moment they were shelled or attacked by ISIS or opposition groups.

In Belgorod, relatives of the mobilized soldiers are complaining to the governor that they haven’t received their 195 thousand ruble payments promised by Putin. One of the conscripts received just 2,792 rubles for a month and a half of service. Since this amount matches the allowance paid to regular draftees (2,000 monthly), we think that the man is probably registered in some database as a regular soldier.

In the Sverdlovsk Region, mobilized soldier Shamil Yusupov was buried. According to his mother, he welcomed the mobilization and was planning to return home victoriously. At one point, Russian TV showed Yusupov training to fly a drone. The details of his death are unknown.

Russian TV keeps running news stories about mobilized soldiers undergoing training. The clips show the conscripts learn how to shoot mortars, drive trucks, and participate in team training. Nevertheless, the men featured in such reports often say that once the film crews leave, the training is over.

The governor of the Amur Region Vasily Orlov acknowledged that military units lacked the essentials since the very beginning of the war. According to him, regional authorities deliberately concealed this fact lest the enemy use it for their purposes and present it as a huge tragedy of Russia.

The publication Sirena informs that Avtoban construction company is digging trenches in northern Crimea and installing “dragon’s teeth” anti-tank fortifications.

Satellite images of Sevastopol show the project 11356R frigate, presumably Admiral Makarov, is still moored with its starboard side parallel to the dock. Possibly, the ship is being repaired.

Volodymyr Zelensky published a video with footage of the production of new Ukrainian maritime drones and announced the launch of a crowdfunding campaign for the world's first fleet of USVs [uncrewed surface vehicles]. According to him, these USVs will help unblock the Black Sea and protect the grain corridor. According to our team, such drones with warheads weighing up to 200 kg are not suitable for protecting the grain corridor and are needed to carry out regular attacks on targets in the territory that Russia considers its own.

Zelensky also claimed that he did not refuse negotiations with Putin, but he sees no prerequisites for Moscow to be ready to make peace on Kyiv's terms. He also pointed out that he would continue to insist on the return of all territories annexed by Russia since 2014.

On November 16, the United States is convening the Rammstein-7 conference on military aid to Ukraine, more than 50 countries are expected to participate.

Sabrina Singh, Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary, said the United States will help create an integrated multi-range air defense system in Ukraine.

The US plans to buy 100,000 artillery shells from South Korea.

According to the Minister for Defense of Sweden Pal Jonson, Sweden will transfer advanced weapons systems to Ukraine. The statement does not specify which systems are in question, but earlier the Ministry for Defense of Ukraine requested Archer self-propelled gun systems.

Germany will allocate 1 billion euros to support Ukraine in 2023. Part of the funds will be used to collect evidence of Russian war crimes in Ukraine.

45 more Ukrainian soldiers returned to Ukraine from captivity; these were mainly riflemen, combat medics, drivers and aid-men. The bodies of two dead Ukrainian soldiers were also returned.

Corpses of three dead civilians with traces of violence were found in the liberated Beryslav district.

Kotenok, a pro-Russian military correspondent, calls for total war. Trinadtsatyy [Thirteenth], a pro-Russian Telegram channel, says that if the hostilities continue in the same way, then “we will both not return Kherson and lose Crimea.”

British street artist Banksy has published his new work, made in Borodyanka, Kyiv region.