Sitrep for November 18–21 (as of 15:00)
The situation on the frontline
Constant strikes continue along the entire front line.
We should make a special mention of strikes on Shebekino, Belgorod region, which may partly be related to the strikes on Kupiansk, which is under the control of Ukrainian forces and is regularly hit by the Russian Armed Forces. In addition, there are quite a lot of military facilities in the Belgorod region, including those near Shebekino.
Strikes on the right bank of the Dnipro: Kherson and nearby settlements are also reported.
On the Svatove axis, the front line continues to remain relatively stagnant. According to analyst Def Mon, both sides are pulling reinforcements there, so the line of contact may remain unchanged for quite some time. The main attacking efforts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are concentrated north of Svatove near Novoselivs'ke. But the progress is very slow because of the muddy season.
Russian forces continue to attack Bilohorivka in the Luhansk region, most likely diverting Ukrainian forces from Kreminna. In recent days, quite a lot of evidence has appeared of the high activity of Russian troops near Verkhn'okam'yanka, more specifically near the Lysychans'k Oil Refinery.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine actively use ATGMs to hit Russian military vehicles located in this area.
Fighting has intensified on the Bakhmut axis, although without much progress. In recent days, a lot of footage of KIAs has been published.
Strikes on the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia axes continue, but no attacks - are reported there. Analyst Def Mon believes that in the near future, Russian forces will build up the potential for an attack in the areas of Hulyaipole, Vuhledar and Mar’inka (as soon as dry weather settles).
The Russian Forces shelled Vuhledar with incendiary munitions. The video allows us to determine that incendiary munitions were used specifically within the city limits, which is prohibited by International Humanitarian Law.
This area is very important for Russia, since a part of the railways from Donetsk to the south is now exposed to the fire from Ukrainian 155 mm tube artillery. These particular railway lines are used to supply Russian troops in the southern directions.
Previously, this part of the Russian Forces was also supplied from Crimea, but due to the liberation of Kherson, the road to Armyansk is now being shot at by HIMARS launchers, while the supply through the Crimean railway bridge is still not fully restored.
Daily shelling of the Dnipropetrovsk region, including Nikopol, also continues.
A rocket with an alleged imitation nuclear warhead was shot down over Kyiv on November 17.
We believe that this is an unexploded high-explosive fragmentation warhead. Fragments of this type of rocket have already been found before, and they look similar.
On November 14-15, the Russian Forces attacked a radar of an S-300 surface-to-air missile system using a Lancet loitering munition in the Kherson region.
Later it turned out that it was a non-operating radar (with no generator) and, moreover, it was a Russian one.
On November 17, Ukrainian forces were shelling a railway, a railway bridge, and a railroad substation in Ilovaisk. Here is one of the important railway junctions.
Dmytro Lubinets, the Commissioner for Human Rights of the Verkhovna Rada [the unicameral parliament of Ukraine] claimed that residents of the Kherson region were subjected to more severe methods of torture than residents of those regions that had been under temporary occupation earlier: Kharkiv, Kyiv and Chernihiv regions.
Also, Ukraine’s Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets, as well as an adviser to the head of the President's Office Oleksiy Arestovich and other Ukrainian officials spoke on the controversial video showing killed Russian servicemen. Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration of Ukraine Olha Stefanishyna said that the Ukrainian authorities are investigating this video.
Mobilization News
A video has been published showing a summary detention of Russian refuseniks right on the drill grounds.
In St. Petersburg, draft summons have started being served for the year of 2023.
Mediazona journalists searched through the data of Russia’s Federal Penitentiary Service and found out that in September and October 2022, the number of convicts in men’s penal facilities had decreased by 23,000 people. In 2022, the State Duma hasn’t declared an amnesty, but Prigozhin, the handler of PMC Wagner, has been recruiting convicts into his organization. Perhaps the Federal Penitentiary Service started documenting their absence in some way.
Ukrainian Railways launched the first regular train from Kyiv to Kherson.
Romanian TAV-71M armoured personnel carriers (BTR-60PB analogue) were spotted in Ukraine. So far we haven’t encountered any data on when they had been delivered and in what numbers.
Denis Pushilin (the head of the occupation administration of the Donetsk region) signed a decree discharging previously conscripted university students (full-time and part-time) from military service. This is strange because the head of a [formally annexed] region does not have such authority. A region of Russia cannot have its own independent army and a defence ministry.