November 24, 2022

Sitrep for November 23–24 (as of 3:00 pm Moscow Standard Time)

Today, November 24, is exactly nine months since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The situation on the frontline

After several months of fighting, pro-Russian forces managed to make some progress in the Donetsk direction. Judging by the geolocation of photos and videos, they have occupied about half of Marinka.

The main event of the past 24 hours was another massive bombing of Ukrainian territory. On the afternoon of November 23, Vitaliy Kim, head of the Mykolaiv region, wrote that another bombing was expected since nine Russian Tu-95 bombers, each carrying 8-10 cruise missiles, had been detected in the air. It was also expected that sea-based Kalibr missiles and loitering munitions would be used.

One of the missiles hit a four-story apartment building in Vyshhorod, and so far, six have been killed and about 30 wounded.

Judging by the scale of destruction, it was a Russian missile with a large high-explosive part, not a Ukrainian anti-aircraft guided missile. Vyshhorod is the site of the Kyiv hydropower plant, which was most likely its target.

According to Oleh Sinehubov, head of the Kharkiv Regional Military Administration, as a result of the shelling of Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region, two people were killed, and an apartment building and a clinic were damaged.

According to Vitaliy Klychko, Russian missiles also struck residential buildings in Kyiv. Three people were killed, and 11 were injured.

In addition to electricity and water supply, central heating was lost in Kyiv, it was promised to be restored by the morning of November 24.

Also, as a result of Russian strikes, Lviv, Sumy, Kryvyi Rih, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, Odesa, Lutsk, Mykolaiv, and Kharkiv were powered down.

Since Transnistria, the rest of Moldova and Ukraine have a unified energy system, a significant part of Moldova, including almost all of Chisinau, was left without electricity. On the evening of November 23, the country's Foreign Ministry summoned the Russian ambassador.

In total, 67 missiles were fired at Ukraine on November 23, resulting in explosions in more than 16 Ukrainian cities.

Apparently, with each new series of strikes, the consequences will become more serious, and repairs after them will take even more time, since the safety margin of the system is close to zero.

The President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted that the missile attack began shortly after the European Parliament adopted a resolution recognizing Russia as a "state sponsor of terrorism."

Ukraine initiates a meeting of the UN Security Council, but it is unlikely to lead to any significant results.

On November 22, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov published an infographic on Russia's stock of missiles. For example, according to their data, there are about 13% of 9K720 Iskander missiles and about half of 3M-54 Kalibr and some other high-precision missiles left.

After the strikes on November 23, there were also reports of intercepted missiles.

Denis Pushilin, acting head of the so-called DPR, said that on November 23 there was a POW exchange “35 for 35” with the Ukrainian side. The names of those returned are still unknown.

The United States announced a new military aid package for Ukraine. It will include:

  • additional munitions for NASAMS surface-to-air missile systems;
  • heavy machine guns with thermal imagers to counter UAVs;
  • additional rockets for HIMARS launchers;
  • 10,000 120mm mortar rounds;
  • HARM air-to-surface anti-radiation missiles;
  • 50 HMMWV light utility vehicles;
  • over 100 light tactical vehicles (possibly armored jeeps);
  • more than 20 million rounds for small arms ammunition;
  • 200 generators;
  • spare parts for 105mm howitzers.

The UK has announced that it will donate three Sea King helicopters to Ukraine, as well as 10,000 additional artillery shells. In the previous six weeks, the Ukrainian soldiers have been retraining to pilot this type of helicopter.

Christine Lambrecht, Minister of Defense of Germany, said the country was at the "absolute frontier" of what it could give away.

Boris Johnson, the former Prime Minister of the UK, spoke in an interview with CNN Portugal about how Ukraine's allies looked at the prospects for war in February, when it had not yet begun: Germany believed that it was easier for Kyiv to surrender, France did not believe in the possibility of war, Italy recognized dependence on deliveries of Russian energy resources. He also called on Western countries to continue to provide aid to Ukraine.

The BBC News Russian told a story of a former Ukrainian soldier who was detained during a filtration while trying to leave the occupied territory through Russia. A criminal case has been initiated against him, and now the soldier faces a criminal sanction of up to life imprisonment. Many residents of the occupied territories are charged with extremism, terrorism and participation in an illegal armed formation: some because of their past service in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, others because of the display of Ukrainian symbols.

Mobilization updates

Sources of the Verstka media outlet exclude the general mobilization of millions of reservists into the Russian army due to limited resources but predict a second wave of "partial" mobilization in winter.

We also expect a second wave of mobilization to begin in January or February.

Russian draftees continue training in Belarus, where they are taught to use howitzers and Grad MLRS.

In Fedoseyevka, Belgorod region, where the training ground is set up almost in the center of the village, a child was hit by a training bullet.

Men seeking employment stopped answering recruiters' calls from unknown numbers due to mobilization.

In order to attract doctors and nurses to the Wagner Group, the PMC offered to pay them ten times as much as hospitals.

As a response to the possibility of putting the Wagner Group on the EU's list of terrorist organizations, Concord (another company owned by Evgeny Prigozhin [owner of the Wagner PMC]) released a video message showing a sledgehammer in a musical instrument case covered in fake blood. The video clearly refers to the recent summary execution of a Wagner Group fighter.

Belarus's Alyaksandr Lukashenka stated that the future of the Collective Security Treaty Organization [a military alliance consisting of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan] depends on Russia's success in the war with Ukraine.