November 28, 2022

Sitrep for November 25–28 (till 3:00 pm Moscow Standard Time)

The situation on the frontline

On the Bakhmut axis, Russian forces were able to capture Ozarianivka. Pro-Russian sources (WarGonzo) were the first to convey this information. Later, a Ukrainian video appeared where grenades were dropped at Russian positions from a quadcopter.

Maps by OSINT analyst Def Mon and DeepState show the village as under Russian control. Also, Mayorsk (on the Bakhmut axis) is now under Russian control.

When talking about fortifications near the town of Svatove, it’s important to note that since Ukrainian forces are already quite close to the town, Russian forces had to build the fortifications to the east — otherwise they would have to do it under continuous shelling (such a location of the fortifications does not mean that the Russian command decided to leave Svatove.)

The fresh satellite images show trenches, reinforced concrete “dragon-teeth” anti-tank fortifications, and concrete pillboxes with firing ports.

On November 27, several pro-Russian sources reported on Ukrainian attacks on Donetsk and other settlements in the part of the Donetsk region controlled by the "DPR". According to the Telegram channel of the Joint Centre of Control and Coordination of the "DPR", two people were injured in Donetsk and three people were killed in Makiivka.

On November 26, Russian forces struck the city of Dnipro destroying or badly damaging several private houses and injuring 13 people.

The town of Kurakhove located in the Ukrainian-controlled part of the Donetsk region was attacked on November 27. Two people were killed and one was injured.

On November 27, Russian forces hit the Musiivka railway station 10 kilometers from Kryvyi Rih, severely damaging the railway infrastructure. The Russian Defense Ministry stated that as a result of the strike, 8 armored vehicles and 5 cars were destroyed and more than 100 Ukrainian servicemen were killed (we have not seen any confirmation). Previous similar strikes on Ukrainian railways were ineffective and did not significantly worsen logistics, since Ukraine's railway network has multiple branches.

Mobilization update

Anton Getman, a 19-year-old draftee from the Rostov region, was killed on November 10. After becoming a welder, he completed military service and returned home. He was mobilized on September 23 and was killed soon after.

We assume that those conscripts who should be transferred to the reserve in April-May 2023 will similarly be mobilized immediately after completing the service.

The New York Times, citing a NATO representative, reported that 20 out of 30 NATO countries (meaning smaller ones) have significantly exhausted their potential to provide military aid to Ukraine. Major allies such as France, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands are still capable of providing military support. In total, NATO has transferred $40 billion worth of weapons to Ukraine, which is comparable to the defense budget of France.

At any given time, about a third of the 350 howitzers transferred to Ukraine are being repaired  due to the need to replace gun barrels.

Luxembourg has handed over six Czech-made Primoco One 150 UAVs to Ukraine.

Canada allocates 10 million Canadian dollars (~7.5 million USD) for the purchase of generators for Ukraine.

As a sign of solidarity with Ukraine, the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly session in Warsaw started in darkness.

There are many videos related to the weather conditions on the front line, both from the Ukrainian and Russian sides. Such conditions greatly complicate logistics, increase the risk for soldiers to get sick, and also lead to wear and tear of the uniforms.

Maxar satellite images show fortifications in the eastern part of the Kherson region, which Russian forces are building along roads and key road junctions to contain a possible breakthrough of Ukrainian forces in the event of crossing the Dnieper.

Several exchanges of POWs have taken place in recent days. In particular, according to the head of the so-called LPR Leonid Pasechnik, 23 fighters of the "LPR" have been returned.