Sitrep for November 4–7 (as of 13:00)
The situation on the frontline
Over the past few days, the position of the frontline has not changed much, mainly due to the muddy season. However, fierce fighting in different areas continues.
On the Vuhledar axis near the village of Pavlivka, the 155th Marine Brigade of the Pacific Fleet is participating in the hostilities. These marines wrote a letter to the Governor of Primorye (their brigade is based there) Oleg Kozhemyako with a request to contact the Supreme Commander-in-Chief (Vladimir Putin) to send an independent (even from the Ministry of Defense) commission that would check the actions of General Muradov and General Akhmedov. According to the marines, these generals are sending them in frontal attacks on Pavlivka right under the fire of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The location of Ukrainian artillery in Vuhledar makes it possible to create a so-called fire bag in the Pavlivka area. The muddy season significantly slowed down the advance, the speed of bringing in ammunition and taking out the wounded also dropped a lot. Due to constant strikes, the marines sustain heavy casualties.
According to Verstka (Russian independent media outlet), a similar thing happened to a battalion of mobilized soldiers in the Luhansk region near the village of Makiivka, where more than 500 servicemen came under Ukrainian strikes. As the mobilized soldiers report, almost everybody except for about 40 survivors were killed.
Our team believes that the number of casualties is exaggerated. During an attack, most of the mobilized soldiers would scatter in every direction, and not all survivors can quickly report to their units. Since they lack adequate communications, their whereabouts remain unknown.
The Russian military command deploys untrained conscripts to the areas of the frontline where Russian forces have suffered the greatest losses. This is made to slow down the Ukrainian offensive and to provide an opportunity for regular military personnel to have breathing space. As a result, huge casualties among the mobilized are inevitable. If Russian forces fail to hold their line of defense in the Svatove direction, the AFU will be able to liberate the north of the Luhansk region and launch an offensive on Severodonetsk and Lysychansk from the north.
Pro-Russian war correspondents raised an important issue. Due to the mobilization, the Russian Criminal Code was amended with articles providing against refusal to fight and evading mobilization. However, there is still no personal liability for issuing an unlawful order.
According to the head of the Luhansk region’s military administration, Serhiy Haidai, in the Luhansk region, Ukrainian forces are advancing by 500 meters a day due to the thaw and Russian forces' reinforcement via the mobilized. At the same time, the Armed Forces of Ukraine also suffer heavy losses.
The intentions of the Russian command regarding Kherson are still unclear. However, if the Ukrainian forces advance another 20 kilometers in the direction of Beryslav in the near future, Nova Kakhovka will be within striking range of artillery.
Nova Kakhovka is an important logistical hub for Russian troops. It already is regularly under fire from HIMARS, and if Ukrainian troops start firing at the city with cannon artillery, the Russian forces will have no choice but to leave the right bank of Dnipro.
On the night of November 6th, Russian forces again shelled the territory of Ukraine:
- In Zaporizhzhia, a residential area was hit, information about the victims is being specified.
- In the Dnipropetrovsk region, a nine-year-old girl was injured. Residential buildings, gas pipelines, power lines, a furniture production facility, and a transport company were damaged.
Russian forces ordered all residents of Beryslav to leave the city by 10 November. The possible destruction of the dam of the Kakhovka HPP and subsequent flooding of the city were given as a reason.
Belarusian Hajun project reports on unprecedented safeguarding measures on the railways in Belarus. Note that in addition to strengthened security, a ban has been established on the movement of military trains through large cities in order to hinder the identification of military vehicles.
The Pentagon has announced an additional $400 million aid package. It consists of:
- 250 M1117 armored personnel carriers;
- 40 armored boats;
- 1100 Phoenix Ghost loitering munitions;
- 45 modernized (improved optics, communications, reactive armor blocks) Czech T-72 tanks.
Provision of 45 more such tanks will be financed by the Netherlands. The first 26 tanks will arrive in Ukraine in early December.
The Washington Post writes that the United States is quietly asking Ukraine not to refuse to negotiate with Russia publicly. Such public and definitive refusal to negotiate is causing problems in some countries in Europe, Africa and Latin America, where the war affects the prices of food and fuel harder than anywhere else.
Priest Mikhail Vasilyev, who became notorious for his advice to give birth to more children so that mothers aren't afraid to send sons to the front, was killed in Ukraine "performing pastoral duties."
Putin's confidant and Wagner PMC handler Evgeny Prigozhin creates "People's Militia Training and Management Centers" in the Kursk and Belgorod regions. In his opinion, enterprises must send 25% of their male employees for military training every week. The groups would rotate, and, in this way, all males would be trained as militia members.
Representatives of the Russian command in Syria said they had information that a staged attack on a refugee camp was being prepared in the Idlib governoratw. A few days later, there was actually an Uragan MLRS attack on the camp. It is clear to our team that this was a strike by Russian or Syrian government forces because opponents of the Syrian regime do not have Uragan systems.
