Sitrep for October 11-12 (pre 12:30)
Attacks on Ukrainian cities
The Air Force Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports that on October 11th, 28 cruise missiles were fired at Ukraine, 20 of which were shot down; 13 Shahed-136 loitering munitions were also shot down (it is unknown how many were fired). Volodymyr Zelensky, citing Ukrainian intelligence, said that Russia had ordered 2,400 such drones from Iran. But the timeline for delivering the order is not known.
It is also not clear why the intensity of missile attacks has significantly decreased (more than 80 rockets were fired on Monday and only 28 on Tuesday).
On the morning of October 12, there was no information about attacks, but an air raid alert was announced in Ukraine.
International reaction
On October 11th, Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Oleksiy Reznikov, announced that the previously promised 4 HIMARS MLRS units had already arrived in Ukraine. The Rammstein 6 conference is scheduled to be held today, where we expect additional shipments to be announced.
In response to President Zelensky’s request to strengthen Ukraine’s air defenses, the US has already pledged to deliver two NASAMS air defense systems as soon as possible.
Photos of two IRIS-T launchers and a missile delivery truck have surfaced. One system includes 3 launchers, so, presumably, the third one did not fit into the frame. In total, they promised that 2 IRIS-T air defense systems would be delivered in the near future.
On the night of October 11-12, Russian forces used incendiary munitions near Nikopol. The exact geolocation has not been identified, and it is possible that they were used outside the city (which is permitted).
More than 100 other shells from MLRS and barrel artillery were also fired. One of the shells hit a private house, wounding a six-year-old girl and her mother.
In the Luhansk region, pro-Russian forces are preparing for defense: digging trenches and placing concrete pyramids designed to hold up enemy armored vehicles.
The governor of Belgorod Region stated that the Ukrainian forces shelled an electrical substation in Shebekino, leaving 2,000 people without power. At this moment, we do not know whether it was shelling or some kind of negligence or diversion. If this action was indeed committed by Ukraine, it is a violation of international humanitarian law.
Explosion on the Crimean Bridge
The [Russian] Federal Security Service reported that they had identified the organizers and perpetrators of the explosion on the Crimean bridge. They named Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry's Main Intelligence Directorate, as the main organizer. According to the investigators, the bombs were masked with rolls of construction polyethylene foil on 22 pallets with a total weight of over 22 tons. In early August, the cargo was shipped from the port of Odesa to the Bulgarian city of Ruse, after which it was transported to Georgia, and then to Armenia. And in late September or early October, the cargo was cleared according to EEU rules at the "Transalliance'' terminal in Yerevan. After that, the documentation was changed, and the Armenian "GU AR DJI GROUP" company became the consignor, and the Moscow "Leader" company became the consignee.
After that, on October 4, a DAF two-axle truck registered in Georgia entered Russia at the Verkhny Lars border checkpoint, where it was X-rayed (the FSB published a photo), and two days later the cargo was delivered to a wholesale warehouse in Armavir.
According to the FSB, the documents for the cargo were then changed again. TEK-34, a company registered in Ulyanovsk, became the shipper, while a non-existent Crimean company was booked as the recipient. Two Ukrainian nationals – Solomko and Vladimir Zloba, as well as five identified Russian nationals, were involved. On October 6, the pallets were loaded into a three-axle truck belonging to Mahir Yusubov, a Russian national. The truck headed to Simferopol and has not been X-rayed again.
At 6:03 on October 8, a blast was set off.
Our team is not sure whether the explosives were planted in the cargo at one of the first stages, this does not directly follow from the FSB report. The easiest way would be to plant and disguise an explosive device at a warehouse in Armavir.
The Federal Security Service (FSB) also published the results of their other investigations. They detained an alleged Ukrainian saboteur who was preparing terrorist attacks using Igla MANPADS, which he smuggled in a car from Kyiv to Russia via Estonia.
In addition, they detained a citizen of Ukraine, who allegedly was going to perform a terrorist attack at a logistics facility in Bryansk. The components of a bomb based on an anti-tank missile were found on him.
Our team evaluates the arrest videos as staged.
The Russian prosecutor's office has begun handing Facebook and Instagram users warnings on the inadmissibility of “extremist activity”.
In general, over the past two days, there has been a lull on the front line. We believe that now any pause is in the favor of Russia. The more time you have for a break, the more you can collect, train and prepare the mobilized, the more equipment you can repair, the more kamikaze drones you can bring from Iran and the more tanks you can demothball in Belarus and bring to Belgorod. Therefore, European countries should not insist on a ceasefire, but supply more military equipment to Ukraine.