October 19, 2022

Sitrep for October 18-19 (as of 13:00)

The situation on the front line

Russian forces are attacking in the direction of the settlements of Bakhmuts’ke and Klishchiivka which means that Odradivka is already under their control, and Bakhmut itself is 30% encircled by Russian troops. Most likely, the encirclement will continue.

On October 18, Volodymyr Saldo, the Russian-appointed governor of Kherson region, announced the evacuation of the population to the left bank of the Dnipro. Beryslav, Bilozerka, Snihurivka and Oleksandrivka municipal administrations are to be relocated. According to him, there is an immediate danger of flooding the territory in connection with the possible destruction of the dam of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant and the discharge of water from a cascade of power plants upstream of the Dnipro.

Also on October 19, Saldo announced that the entrance to the Kherson region for civilians will be closed during the next seven days.

Our team believes that blowing up the dam would be disadvantageous for the Russian forces (based on the terrain, it can be assumed that the territories occupied by Russian troops will be flooded first), while the Ukrainian forces do not have the means to do so.

The commander of the Russian army, Sergei Surovikin, said that further actions as to Kherson would depend on the evolving military-tactical situation, "difficult decisions are not to be excluded." Surovikin also added that strikes on Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure reduce the combat capability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. We have no idea how interruptions in electricity and water supply in Kyiv can affect the combat capability of the AFU on the front line.

Surovikin’s statement spurred some enthusiasm in the pro-Russian sources. Journalist Semyon Pegov (WarGonzo) believes that Surovikin’s increased popularity is due to high public demand for truthful information.

The head of the Mykolaiv region’s military administration, Vitaly Kim, believes that Russian statements on the possible withdrawal and difficult decisions are a part of an information and psychological attack.

On October 18th, the Russian forces once again shelled Ukrainian cities:

  • In Dnipro, a thermal power plant has been hit, power went out in some communities of the region.
  • In Kyiv, the TPP-6 was hit, causing interruptions in water and electricity supply in the city. The Mayor of Kyiv, Vitaly Klitschko, urged the residents to save electricity and stock up on drinking water. Photographs of anti-aircraft guns in action against Russian loitering munitions in the sky over Brovary in the Kyiv region are reminiscent of the newsreels of the Second World War.
  • In Kharkiv, there were explosions near one of the industrial plants, no casualties (yet).
  • In the Zhytomyr region, there were two hits on power supply facilities. As a result, power was also lost in Zhytomyr.
  • In Zaporizhzhia, a loitering munition struck an infrastructure facility.
  • In the Sumy region, two people were killed, and one was injured.
  • On the night of October 18-19, five loitering munitions were shot down in the Mykolaiv region. As a result of the shelling, electricity was partially lost in the Mykolaiv region and Mykolaiv itself.

The State Emergency Service of Ukraine reports that between October 7 and 18, Russia launched more than 190 missile and loitering munition strikes in 16 regions of Ukraine. At least 70 people were killed, and more than 240 were injured.

Yurii Ignat, spokesman for the command of the Ukrainian Air Force, said that on October 18 Russia attacked Ukraine with missiles from the Rostov region, and not from the Caspian Sea area, as it had been before. Rostov-on-Don is closer, so there is less time to react in case of an air alert.

Fragments of a downed AGM-88 HARM anti-radar missile fell on the Enerhiya stadium in Nova Kakhovka, as a result, two people were killed, and a power transformer was damaged.

Our team believes that the shelling of the settlements of Tetkino and Popovo-Lezhachi in the Kursk region was Ukrainians returning fire to the shelling of the border areas of the Sumy region.

In the Belgorod region of Russia, the village of Vesyolaya Lopan was shelled, It is known of one lightly injured. Mobilized servicemen were reported present at the railway station near that settlement

Belarusian Hajun project reports that three Russian MiG-31K supersonic fighter-interceptors have been spotted in Belarus. This modification is capable of carrying X-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic ballistic missiles and launching them from a distance of about 2000 kilometers to the target.

U.S. officials say Iranian instructors have arrived in Crimea to train the Russian military on operating and troubleshooting Shahed-136 loitering munitions.

Experts cite photos showing the aftermath of Iranian Fateh-110s missile strike at the Iraqi-American Al-Asad airbase as an example of the destructive potential of such a weapon.

Meanwhile, a significant part of Ukrainian territory is in the target range.

Reuters, citing two senior Iranian officials and diplomats, reports that Iran has agreed to supply Russia with ballistic missiles and a new shipment of UAVs.

According to Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine's Minister for Foreign Affairs, his Ministry proposed President Zelensky to break off diplomatic relations with Iran.

Ukraine is expected to receive two NASAMS air defense systems within 1-3 weeks. Each system is composed of 8 launchers each outfitted with 6 missiles.

Germany has begun sending Marder infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) to Greece. This means that 40 Greek BMP-1 IFVs will arrive in Ukraine soon.

There is a photo of a German-supplied Gepard anti-aircraft self-propelled gun in action.

The UN has released a report on violations of international humanitarian law in Ukraine. This report is based on interviews with more than 190 victims and witnesses, as well as a variety of documents and reports, and inspections of places of destruction, burials, detentions, tortures, and remnants of weapons. According to the commission's experts, the vast majority of violations, including war crimes, have been committed by the Russian military. In addition, the report notes that "Ukrainian forces have also committed international humanitarian law violations in some cases, including two incidents that qualify as war crimes."

Konstantin Vorontsov, the deputy head of the Russian delegation at the first committee of the UN General Assembly meeting, said that Russia completely denies the option of demilitarizing the Zaporozhzhia NPP, as this would lead to "the emergence of conditions for a counteroffensive of the AFU."

The so-called DPR acting Head Denys Pushylin said that, on his instructions, the Ministry of State Security of the so-called DPR opens all border crossing points from the territories of other subjects of Russia and no longer executes border control.

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov’s underage children came to Mariupol and took videos posing with weapons.

Elon Musk announced that SpaceX has withdrawn its request for funding of Starlink services in Ukraine. Note that we do not know how much of the terminals and subscription fees are paid by SpaceX; a significant part of the costs was covered by volunteers.