October 27, 2022

Sitrep for October 26-27 (as of 15:00)

The situation on the front line

There was a video confirmation that the village of Nevs’ke on the Svatove axis had been liberated by Ukrainian forces.

The pro-Russian Telegram channel “WarGonzo” reports that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have advanced near Dzherelne and are creating a threat for Russian forces from the direction of Stel'makhivka, coming close to the R-66 motorway.

At the moment, the Ukrainian forces are most successfully advancing in the Svatove axis. It is also confirmed by Oleksiy Arestovych, the advisor to the head of the President’s office of Ukraine.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine still tends to limit reports of strikes on the southern part of the front.

Oleksiy Arestovych says that the situation in the Kherson axis for Ukraine has taken an unpleasant turn due to the deployment of additional Russian forces. At the moment, about 30 combat-ready battalion tactical groups have been gathered in this direction.

According to Ukrainian observer Kostiantyn Mashovets, a total of 39 Russian battalion tactical groups are concentrated on both banks of the Dnipro, and 21-22 battalion tactical groups directly on the Kherson bridgehead.

The Minister of Defense of Ukraine Oleksiy Reznikov explained that the advance of Ukrainian troops in the southern direction has slowed down due to the deteriorating weather conditions: a muddy season is beginning. Ukrainian military vehicles have already been seen stuck in the mud.

Satellite imagery shows that the Russian side continues to use a ferry crossing across the Dnipro near Kherson. There have been reports of new attacks on the crossing, but so far without evidence.

Evidence is emerging of Russian troops setting up defensive positions on the left bank of the Dnipro river. Construction of defensive structures on the bank of the Dnipro opposite to AFU positions is an important strategic step, but does not indicate that the Russian forces intend to retreat from Kherson any time soon.

In the Kharkiv direction, evidence emerged of the destruction of a Russian air defense system by Ukrainian forces. It is claimed to be a Buk launcher, but due to the poor quality of the video recording, this cannot be confirmed.

RIA Novosti (News) published a report in which a correspondent from this agency tries to show the advance of Russian troops in Soledar, but only shows footage from the Knauf factory captured on August 3rd.

On October 26th, in the occupied Shakhtarsk, Donetsk region, a fire broke out on the railway as a result of shelling. 24 liquid tanks with fuel and lubricants were damaged, another 42 tanks were saved.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine attacked a training ground near Kherson and Chornobaivka, where Russian mobilized troops could be located.

On October 26th, a number of videos appeared with mobilized soldiers taken prisoner. At least 15 people were captured. Once again, many say that they were sent to the frontline without any training. In one of the cases, the mobilized (mostly from Belgorod) were taken prisoner by the patrol police of Ukraine.

Reports of a large number of mobilized troops getting into captivity are already emerging in pro-Russian Telegram channels. They complain that the Russian leadership is silent about the issue.

Russian independent media outlet Mediazona published a long article about a group of mobilized servicemen who were captured or killed near Svatove.

Earlier, they had recorded a video in Khokhlovo, Belgorod Region, saying that the authorities were going to send them to the front line with almost no training and without supplies, which did happen in the following few days. An important point is that the company was commanded by a lieutenant who also had been mobilized.

The article also mentions a certain general trying to make the fleeing mobilized come back to the front line. Anastasia Kashevarova (speaker of Russia’s State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin's former assistant) also wrote about this episode, claiming that the general was coercing them to turn back under the threat of being shot (he put a gun to the head of the mobilized lieutenant).

SOTA media outlet found out that it was General Lapin.  Also present was Colonel Rumyantsev (likely the chief political officer of the 1st Tank Army, and its temporary commander).

There are numerous reports of pneumonia among the mobilized.

In Ivanovo, police raid men of conscription age right in shopping malls, grocery stores, and at the gatehouses of large facilities.

Obituaries of Kadyrov's (Chechen leader) fighters who were killed in an attack on the settlement of Kairy (on the left bank of the Dnipro River) have appeared.

The Wagner group is recruiting people to form and replenish the crews of Panzir-S1 surface-to-air missile and cannon systems and S-300 surface-to-air missile systems.

Another exchange of prisoners and bodies took place. Ten servicemen returned to the Ukrainian side; also returned was the body of a dead American volunteer, US Army veteran Joshua Alan Jones.

Dmitry Medvedev visited an Uralvagonzavod plant. From this report, we learned that the Armata production shop has not been completed and that machines for it have not been purchased. According to journalist Dmitry Kolezev's source, tank production at the plant is now severely affected by sanctions, and armored vehicles are mostly assembled from parts of tanks damaged in Ukraine.

Foreign Policy published an article about the Afghan commandos who had been fighting with the United States and its allies for the past 20 years and who were abandoned last year when the Taliban took over Afghanistan. Now Russian representatives are contacting them and trying to recruit them for the war in Ukraine.

In Iran, a general and a colonel from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps were killed. According to media reports, they were in charge of delivering of Iranian kamikaze drones to Russia.

Spot prices for natural gas in Europe went negative on October 24 indicating that all the storage facilities are full.

President Biden once more warned Russia against using nuclear weapons saying that doing so would be a very serious mistake.

According to the UK Deputy Permanent Representative at UN James Kariuki, Russia didn’t present any evidence at the closed UN Security Council meeting on Tuesday that would suggest that Ukraine were preparing to use a “dirty bomb”.

Since the start of this invasion, Ukraine has received $41 billion in military aid. The US has contributed the most in terms of absolute amount. In terms of percentage of military budget, Latvia leads at 41%.

Germany transferred the next batch of military aid to Ukraine that included MARS II MLRS, Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled howitzers, 155mm artillery ammunition, and more.

30 additional Bushmaster armored vehicles arrived in Ukraine from Australia.

In the Czech city of Litoměřice, someone painted a washing machine on the pedestal of a monument to a Red Army soldier.