We Identified the Air Defense Position from Which the Missile That Hit a Building in Novaya Adygea Was Launched

Late on the evening of Jan. 20, during a drone attack apparently aimed at the Afipsky oil refinery, an explosion struck the village of Novaya Adygea, several kilometers from Krasnodar. One civilian was killed and 13 others were injured. The head of Russia’s Republic of Adygea, Murat Kumpilov, said that a drone strike had occurred. However, the videos that later emerged (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) made clear that the building had not been hit by a drone, but rather by an air defense missile, judging by the damage, from an S-300 or S-400 system.

Using a range of available data, several researchers sought to determine the likely direction from which the missile had been launched. Our team did so as well, alongside analysts from the Astra Telegram channel, though our initial assessments somewhat differed.

After discussions with the Astra team, we were able to refine our estimate of the missile’s flight distance. Readers also drew our attention to a little-known video capturing the moment the air defense missile was launched, along with its geolocation, carried out by a previously unknown researcher, going by the name GEOsudoku. All together, this made it possible to identify the presumed position of the air defense crew that fired the missile. Subsequent analysis of satellite imagery allowed us to pinpoint the exact launch site, near the village of Druzhny, and to establish that the anti-air battery had been deployed there no earlier than November 2025.

According to an eyewitness video recorded from Krasnodar, the missile remained in flight for 8-9 seconds (from the 4th to the 12th second of the recording), and its engine operated until the very end of the flight. During this period, the missile did not maintain a constant speed but accelerated after launch. To estimate the missile’s speed and acceleration, we consulted several sources. No official specifications were found, but data published in 2008 on a specialized forum indicated that a 5V55K missile from the S-300 SAM system, when engaging a low-altitude target, covers 10.6 km [6.21 mi] in 10 seconds. Considering that its single-mode engine operates (1, 2) for 8-10 seconds, this corresponds approximately to uniformly accelerated motion over that period. Based on the assumption that the surface-to-air missile that hit the building had similar energy and ballistic characteristics, we concluded that during the aforementioned 8-9 seconds it would have traveled roughly 7-8 km [4.3-5 mi] from the launch site—not more than 10 km [6.2 mi], correcting our earlier overestimate.

Using video footage from a camera in Krasnodar, we determined the direction toward the launch site (from which the missile flew, marked by a purple line on the map). Furthermore, based on our calculations of the missile’s flight, the launch site should lie approximately 7-8 km from the impact site (indicated by two red circles on the map around the flame symbol). GEOsudoku independently geolocated another video of the launch in the same area and pinpointed the site more precisely. Taken together, this evidence suggests that the missile was launched near the village of Druzhny in the Takhtamukaysky district of Adygea.

Examining Sentinel-2 satellite imagery of the area, 500 meters [1640 ft] north of Druzhny near an abandoned farm whose hangars could plausibly conceal military equipment, we identified a group of objects that we were able to recognize as a battery position for the S-300 or S-400 system, with eight shielded launch shelters. This position appeared there in late October-early November 2025.

To verify the accuracy of our identification, we provide a satellite image of a similar S-300/S-400 battery position at Rostov-on-Don airport.

Thanks to this analysis, we were not only able to locate the exact launch site of the missile that struck the house but can also assert with high confidence that the missile which hit the house in Novaya Adygea came indeed from an S-300 or S-400 system, and not a Buk or another surface-to-air system, whose positions appear differently.