Sitrep for October 31 - November 1 (as of 16:00)
The situation on the front line
The General Staff of Ukraine reports about strikes on Ploshchanka and Chervonopopivka on the Svatove axis. Based on this, analyst Def Mon concludes that Ukrainian forces are already near these villages
Besides, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports that they have repulsed a Russian attack near Novoselivs'ke. Accordingly, the Ukrainian forces have managed to advance even closer to Svatove.
On the Siversk axis, the Armed Forces of Ukraine repelled Russian attacks on Bilohorivka (in the Luhansk region) and Mykolaivka, which, as far as we know, has been under the control of the Wagner group forces for a long time. Taking this into consideration, many analysts believe that, perhaps, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports about another settlement called Mykolaivka.
On the Vuhledar axis, a difficult situation has developed around Pavlivka, which Russian forces try to capture over and over again. Pro-Russian sources report that heavy fighting is underway, Ukrainian forces have managed to bring up artillery and MLRS and hit Russian positions.
There are various rumors among the pro-Russian military correspondents about which units are fighting on this axis. Rybar and Vladlen Tatarsky report that the "People's Militia" of the DPR and the Special Operations Forces of the Ministry of State Security of the DPR are located there. However, military correspondent Romanov claims that Russia’s 155th Marine Brigade is actually involved in the battles on the axis, citing the words of local soldiers. In our opinion, the latter sounds more plausible, since even at the end of the summer marines were reported to have arrived near Vuhledar.
Residents of the Kherson region report that Russian forces have begun evacuating locals along a fifteen-kilometer (10-mile) stretch along the left bank of the Dnipro. Apparently, artillery positions will be based there.
On October 31, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Russian forces had begun preparations for the withdrawal of artillery units from the right bank of the Dnipro. According to The New York Times, Ukraine has an artillery advantage in the Kherson region thanks to Western supplies of precision-guided and long-range missiles, as well as artillery shells. As a result, reconnaissance drones spot more Russian infantry but fewer tanks or armored vehicles near the front line.
On October 31, Russian troops continued attacking the energy infrastructure of Ukraine:
- Electricity went down in some districts of Kharkiv as a result of the explosions.
- In the Kyiv region, after shelling energy facilities, there were interruptions in electricity supply which, in turn, caused problems with water supply: the Kyivvodokanal (enterprise in the sphere of water supply and water disposal in Kyiv) reported that 80% of consumers were staying without water. People queue for water in Kyiv.
- The Dnipro Hydroelectric Station in the Zaporizhzhia region and the Dniester Pumped Storage Power Plant in the Chernivtsi region were attacked.
- A critical infrastructure object was hit in the Cherkasy region.
A Russian rocket fell in Naslavcea, Moldova on October 31. According to preliminary information, it was shot down by Ukrainian air defense. No casualties were reported, but many private houses were damaged by a shock wave. One of the employees of the Russian embassy was declared persona non grata by Moldova.
At least 50 rockets were fired at Ukraine in total on October 31. President Volodymyr Zelensky claims that 55 rockets were fired. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, reports that fifty five Kh-101 cruise missiles, one Kh-59 TV-guided cruise missile, twenty two S-300 surface-to-air missiles, and four loitering munitions of the Shahed-136 and Lancet-3 types were launched. At least 45 missiles were shot down.
The Belarusian Hajun Project reports that the missiles that hit the territory of Ukraine on October 31 were not launched from the airspace of Belarus. The last strike from the airspace of Belarus was made on October 6, and from the ground - on August 25. According to the investigators, the missiles were launched from the Caspian Sea on October 31; later these data were confirmed by the Command of the Ukrainian Air Force.
According to Dmytro Kuleba, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, 12 countries will provide Ukraine with power equipment to restore the power system.
On the night of November 1, Mykolaiv was shelled with S-300 surface-to-air missiles by the Russian Forces. According to Oleksandr Senkevych, the Mayor of Mykolaiv, a woman was killed and several civilian objects were damaged as a result of the shelling.
Russia withdrew from the grain deal and announced the closure of the humanitarian corridor through the Black Sea. Ukrainian command reported that on October 31, the Russian forces shelled civilian tug boats as they were towing barges loaded with grain. Two crew members were killed.
The Metallurg hotel In the occupied city of Alchevsk in Luhansk Region was shelled. Presumably, HIMARS MLRS was used.
As a result of an explosion in the Pskov Region in Russia, two Ka-52 helicopters were destroyed and two more sustained damage. The helicopters were inoperable and were undergoing repairs at a military airbase. A video showing a possible planting of explosive devices was published.
Photographers already penetrated that airbase once in 2019.
On October 31, a Mi-8 helicopter was shot down near the village of Berestove. Reportedly, the aircraft belonged to the Wagner Group. Some pro-Russian sources are trying to prove that it was a Ukrainian helicopter; however, its exact model and its looks indicate that this helicopter used to belong to the Russian Air Force and was later transferred to the Wagner Group.
In addition, the Belarus monitoring group Belarusian Hajun has proven that the helicopter was not a Belarusian one.
Also on October 31, a Ukrainian Mi-8 helicopter went down and burned near the village of Kostiantynivka, Donetsk Region, presumably as a result of technical problems. Reportedly, the crew survived.
At night on October 29, the AFU attacked ships in the Sevastopol harbor with the help of several drone boats. Probably, an airstrike was conducted at the same time, since Russian air defense systems were activated that night. According to the Advisor to the Head of the Ukrainian Ministry of Interior Anton Herashchenko, Admiral Makarov Admiral Grigorovich-class frigate suffered damage, the Russian Ministry of Defense denies that. The published videos show the approach of drone boats to a frigate of that class, but there were not any hits registered. Thus, there is so far no evidence of any damage to any of the ships.
Mobilization news
Dmitry Peskov (the press secretary for Russian President) declared that Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the matter of a decree proclaiming the end of the mobilization with legal experts and found out that there was no need in such a document.
At the request of the Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoygu, the General Staff of the RuAF directed an order to commanders of Military districts and the commander of the Northern Fleet to report of the completion of the “partial” mobilization activities by November 1.
Meanwhile journalists, who addressed the Ministry of Defense with questions via hotline, were answered that mobilization won’t stop till the respective decree by the president. Governors, addressing the public on local news, avoid assertions of the end of the mobilization and tell that “the mobilization objectives have been accomplished”.
The regular autumn recruitment campaign for conscript military service began on November 1, plans are to recruit 120 thousand people. According to the head of the General Draft Directorate of the RuAF General Staff Colonel-General Evgeniy Burdinskiy, conscripts won’t be deployed in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.
The military commissariat of the Nizhny Novgorod region announced that regular conscription draft notes will have a special mark so that they can be distinguished from mobilization summons.
In Bataysk, Rostov region, a mobilized man who came to the draft office after Shoigu announced the end of the mobilization was registered as a volunteer without his consent.
The strange cage at the collection center for the mobilized residents of Tatarstan in Kazan Expo turned out to be designated for drunken recruits.
The Volgograd garrison military court ruled in favor of a former serviceman Ruslan Makhno, recognizing the entry “prone to lies and deceit” in his military record as illegal. The court ordered the commander of the military unit to correct the records according to the regulations.
The beginning of the rasputitsa season, also known as “General Mud”, means that military equipment is now constrained to moving along paved roads. Both sides can use this fact to mine the roads and ambush convoys.
In Kherson region, Ukrainian forces captured a VPK-Ural armored vehicle which is typically used by Kadyrovites and other Chechen units.
The United States will provide Ukraine with 8 NASAMS systems, 2 in the near future and 6 more later. Each system has 8 launchers. The US also has supplied spare parts for Ukrainian Soviet-made air defense systems in order to keep them operational.
On October 28, the US announced a shipment of a new $275 million security assistance package which includes:
- additional munitions for HIMARS;
- 500 precision-guided 155mm shells;
- 2,000 155mm rounds of Remote Anti-Armor Mine (RAAM) Systems;
- More than 1,300 anti-armor systems;
- 125 High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs);
- small arms and more than 2,750,000 rounds of small arms ammunition;
- 4 satellite communications antennas.
Sweden has decided to deliver modern weapons to Ukraine. It might be RBS 70 MANPADS [there are four variants] and modern FH77BW L52 Archer wheeled self-propelled artillery systems.
La Repubblica reports that not only FH70 and decommissioned M109L self-propelled howitzers were delivered to Ukraine from Italy, but also more advanced PzH 2000 self-propelled guns and M270 MLRS.
During a meeting of the UN Security Council, Albania's representative stated that the Russian delegation was once again making groundless claims about biological weapons in Ukraine, including “combat mosquitoes”, without providing any evidence, and was outraged by the council members' waste of time and resources.