October 3, 2022

Sitrep for October 2-3 (up to 14:30)

The situation on the frontline

There are many testimonies of Lyman's liberation. Video by Ukrainian forces shows abandoned Russian armored vehicles along the roads and numerous bodies of killed Russian soldiers. Videos of captured Russian soldiers have also appeared. Apparently, the scenario described in one of the pro-Russian Telegram channels was realized: the Russian forces had the opportunity to withdraw from Lyman on time and with fewer losses, but in order not to spoil the annexation feast for Putin, they decided to hold out till the end. As a result, the retreat was organized too late, that’s why the loss of personnel and equipment was so great.

Reportedly, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are trying to expand the foothold near Kupiansk, but there is no real progress yet.

Nevertheless, it can be stated that the Ukrainian offensive did not end with the capture of Lyman. The AFU has liberated Zarichne, Torske and are approaching Kreminna from the west and north-west. Perhaps they will create conditions for an operational encirclement.

Pro-Russian Telegram channels report that Kreminna is also unlikely to be held, because there are not enough fighters, and the reserves that came up turned out to be too weak (perhaps they consisted of mobilized people). Moreover, Kreminna is under Ukrainian shelling, according to them.

After the capture of Kreminna, we expect that the Ukrainian Forces will advance to Svatove.

There is a video of the Armed Forces of Ukraine entering Shyikivka (to the west of Svatove). Thus, they are preparing for a future attack on Svatove.

There is also progress on the Kherson front: the Ukrainian Forces have liberated Zolota Balka and, according to a pro-Russian military correspondent, Dudchany. If the liberation of Dudchany is confirmed, then the Armed Forces of Ukraine made a very fast and powerful breakthrough (for 25 km).

Zolota Balka

There are also visual confirmations of the liberation of Kreshchenivka.

Analyst Def Mon only marks Zolota Balka and Khreschenivka as liberated on his map.

Ukrainian forces attempted to break through toward Davydiv Brid, but so far without success, there are losses.

There are rumors going around that Ukrainian forces are moving east of Bilohorivka towards Novodruzhesk and Lysychansk.

Ukrainian forces shot down another Ka-52 helicopter in the Zaporizhzhya region, the pro-Russian Telegram channel Fighterbomber confirms the incident.

In the Kharkiv region, Ukrainian forces captured another BMP-2M of the 3rd Army Corps with a Berezhok combat module.

Russian forces once again shelled:

  • The city of Zaporizhzhia and surrounding areas (October 2). According to the head of the Zaporizhzhia region military administration, Oleksandr Starukh, 4 missiles of the S-300 system hit the city, there were no casualties, industrial infrastructure was destroyed;
  • The city of Mykolaiv (on the night of October 1-2). According to the head of the Mykolaiv region military administration, Vitaly Kim, the shelling was carried out from the S-300 air defense system, 2 four-story houses were damaged, 7 people were injured;
  • Shevchenko, Mykolaiv region (on the night of October 1-2), two people were killed.

Mobilization update

Eleven Russian regions reported on the implementation of the plan for the recruitment of mobilized soldiers, in some other regions the recruitment quota is reduced. We do not know how many of the estimated 300,000 people they managed to mobilize in such a short period, and we expect that there will be subsequent waves of mobilization.

Andrei Gurulev, a State Duma deputy from the Zabaykalsky region, is wondering where 1.5 million sets of uniforms have disappeared from reception stations.

Deaths of mobilized people who have not yet managed to reach the front line have begun to be reported. Due to the fact that people with health problems are often mobilized, we, unfortunately, do not see anything surprising in this trend, especially considering that similar accidents with soldiers during military service or training have happened regularly in the past.

These days, the pro-Russian segment of the Internet has split into two camps. On the one hand, the Telegram channels associated with Yevgeny Prigozhin, a Russian oligarch and the founder of Wagner Group, are scolding General Aleksandr Lapin for incompetence. The same position was taken by Ramzan Kadyrov, the Head of the Chechen Republic, who spoke out, among other things, against General Gerasimov, the Chief of the Russian General Staff. On the other hand, a network of Telegram channels, possibly sponsored by the Russian Ministry of Defense, is speaking in defense of Lapin by telling implausible stories about his personal involvement in the capture of a [Ukrainian] sabotage-reconnaissance group.

In our opinion, Lapin is engaged mostly in PR and not in the command of his troops, so some of these claims are well justified. Some blame the failures of the Russian forces on the admins of Telegram channels, who leak a lot of information.

According to Welt, German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht visited Odessa and met with the Minister of Defense Of Ukraine Oleksiy Reznikov.  She promised that the IRIS-T air defense systems would be delivered to Ukraine in the coming days.

Denmark, Germany, and Norway will finance the production of 16 new 155 mm Zuzana-2 self-propelled howitzers which will be made in Slovakia and are expected to be delivered to Ukraine next year.

According to Bloomberg, the United States is planning to provide Ukraine with $1.5 billion in economic aid monthly for the duration of the war with Russia, and is calling upon their European allies to do the same.

The situation with Ukrainian refugees on the border of the Pskov region and Estonia is deteriorating. Volunteers are urgently needed. The border service of the FSB makes it difficult to cross the border, attempts to persuade refugees to stay in Russia. People wait in line for days  at the border checkpoint without any amenities, no living facilities and nothing to eat.

Svyatoslav Vakarchuk, a Ukrainian musician and a former member of the Ukrainian parliament,  sang “Chervona Ruta” with the locals in the destroyed but liberated Izyum.