Sitrep for September 26-27 (as of 17:00)
The situation on the front line
The Armed Forces of Ukraine have liberated the village of Shandryholove to the north-west of Lyman near Drobysheve. Thus, the Ukrainian forces are getting closer and closer to the encirclement of Lyman.
Also in this direction, a Russian serviceman was captured , who initially served in the Strategic Missile Forces, and then was transferred to the 12th Tank Regiment of the 4th Kantemirovskaya Division. Earlier, various sources (Volodymyr Zolkin, Mediazona) have already reported that soldiers from the Strategic Missile Forces are participating in the hostilities. This is another proof that all remaining unused contract soldiers from any type of troops are sent to the front.
An unexploded air bomb was found near Irmino in the Luhansk region, presumably OFAB 250-270 (high-explosive fragmentation bomb). Most likely, it was dropped with the fuse not cocked. Since Irmino is located behind the lines of pro-Russian forces, it can be concluded that the bomb was dropped from a Russian aircraft. Ukrainian aviation does not fly beyond the front line and does not risk pilots, since all the tasks that air bombs perform can be performed using HIMARS MLRS.
The footage coming from the Kherson direction confirms the active use of Russian aviation. A Sukhoi Su-25 Grach (Frogfoot) attack aircraft, which first fired off heat traps, and then dropped aerial bombs on some objects on the ground, can be seen in the video. Flying so close to the front line with Ukrainian forces using MANPADS as air defense is a very high risk. But an aerial bomb cannot be launched from a great distance, and although tossing rockets increases the range, it critically reduces the accuracy of the hit. Perhaps this is the reason for the high losses of Russian aviation in recent days.
Analyst Def Mon shows on the map that the liberation of Lyman enables the Armed Forces of Ukraine to attack Svatove from two sides: one group of forces is moving towards Svatove from Kupiansk (from the northwest). And the second group of forces will start advancing from Lyman (from the south-west of Svatove). If Lyman remains under Russian control, then Russian troops will be able to attack the Ukrainian flanks.
Due to the fact that the Geran-2 (Shahed-136) loitering munitions (kamikaze drones) emit a characteristic sound of a two-stroke engine during flight, like a moped, residents in Odesa are asked not to ride motorcycles and mopeds during air raid alerts in order to not complicate the work of air defense, since in the dark these drones are often tracked by sound.
Apparently, Ukraine received Slovak base bleed shells (with a bottom gas generator). Several of these munitions were found unexploded on the ground near the front line. Projectiles of this type can fly 43 kilometers.
The long-awaited BGM-71 TOW ATGMs have also been delivered to Ukraine.
Mobilization in Russia
In the last few days, there are more and more reports about “territorial defense” in connection with the mobilization.
According to the Russian law on territorial troops, they (troops) are formed during martial law. We assume that this may be happening now for two reasons. Firstly, the declared number of mobilized people may exceed the number of places in the staff of the Russian army. Consequently, new military units need to be formed, and there are no “skeleton” units available. Usually, in preparation for mobilization, special units are formed with a skeleton officer personnel, to which mobilized people are added when martial law is declared. Over the last 10 years, all such units in the Russian army have been eliminated. So now some of the mobilized are being sent to those military units that had losses on the front lines, while the rest will still be formed into either new military units — or territorial troops.
A video appeared, showing a mobilized man taking selfies on his phone and telling that he (and his unit) wouldn't have any training and would be sent straight to the frontline. It looks believable from the whole atmosphere, from what he says, and from the way he is dressed. The lack of crew training and cohesion greatly affects survivability. Under such conditions, we expect the number of deaths among the mobilized to be much higher than it could have been.
Considering how successfully Ukrainian troops are advancing near Lyman, there is some logic in trying to stop this counterattack by plugging holes in the front with mobilized soldiers. But this doesn't mean that all the mobilized will be immediately sent to the frontline. Especially if they mobilize tens or even hundreds of thousands of people.
There are also many videos showing how the mobilized are being accommodated. In Klintsy, Bryansk region, they sleep on the floor or while sitting at desks, while in Rostov region, on the other hand, nutrition is well organized.
The counting of votes in the so-called referendum on the annexation of the occupied regions to Russia is still ongoing, but the already published partial results make it impossible to doubt that the results are drawn. Video recordings designed to demonstrate the transparency of the electoral process show only that each mobile election commission has a guard with a machine gun (allegedly to protect against saboteurs).
We believe that after the Russian President announces the results of the referendum, martial law can be declared in the occupied regions (which, unlike mobilization, can be declared not all over the country), and therefore the rights and freedoms of citizens will be restricted even more. Also, during martial law, it's prohibited to hold any elections.
As for the situation on the Russian borders, we suppose that the district draft boards send the lists of those who are going to be mobilized to the FSS (Federal Security Service) border service, in order to prevent these people from leaving the country manually.
The Russian military arrived at the border with Georgia and opened up a mobile enlistment office where they will hand out draft notices to those trying to leave Russia who are subject to mobilization.
The authorities of Kazakhstan as well as its citizens are actively supporting Russians fleeing the mobilization. We express gratitude for their assistance.
An interesting situation is developing involving military correspondent Oleg Blokhin and General Chaiko (formerly a commander in the Air Force). While General Chaiko commanded the Eastern Military District and, accordingly, the Vostok (“East”) group of troops in Ukraine, Oleg Blokhin for some reason did not report from there and continued to work in Syria. Now, when General Chaiko has been removed from his post as a result of the first stage of the invasion and sent to Syria, the Mukhabarat (Syrian military intelligence) detained Oleg Blokhin and will transfer him to Damascus, where a part of the Russian command is located. Apparently, pro-Russian military correspondents are not allowed to criticize the Russian top command and to point out their mistakes.
We conducted an investigation earlier about the allegedly existing Turan PMC which turned out to be a fabrication created and promoted by Oleg Blokhin.
The UK launched a preliminary investigation with regard to Graham Phillips (a British citizen, a pro-Russian propagandist, who worked for Russia Today for a while) interrogating Ukrainian prisoners of war.