October 1, 2022

Sitrep for September 30–October 1 (pre 14:30)

The situation on the frontline

Ukrainian forces are expanding the Kupiansk bridgehead — they now have liberated the village of Kyrylivka. In this direction, they have to fight against the 27th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Tank Army, known for its military failures.

In the Donetsk region, the village of Drobysheve was liberated. In addition to video evidence, there is also an official statement from Serhiy Cherevaty, a representative of the East Group of Ukrainian forces.

After the liberation of Yampil, a “pocket” is forming around Lyman. Thus, the battles are now continuing for its “neck” in the Zarichne region — a narrow corridor, covered  by Ukrainian fire, along which the Russian group is trying to retreat.

A video appeared showing a large convoy of vehicles leaving Lyman towards Zarichne.

RIA Novosti published a report on reinforcements sent from Kreminna towards Lyman. The comments section on the pro-Russian Lost Armor project forum says that these reserves are going towards Lyman to hold the corridor between Torske (which is under Russian control) and Lyman in order to enable Russian troops to escape encirclement.

A video of Ukrainian soldiers appeared, presumably on the eastern outskirts of Lyman (moving from Yampil) and another video with a Ukrainian flag being raised on a stele with the inscription “Lyman '' on the northwestern outskirts of the city (moving from Drobysheve).

Nonetheless, at 14:30 Moscow time, there is no visual confirmation that Lyman has been captured, although even pro-Russian sources write that most of the Russian group left the city last night, and that the Ukrainian military has been seen on the streets of Lyman.

Lyman’s importance lies in the fact that it is the key to advancing towards Svatove (Luhansk region).

Throughout various sources, rumors are spreading that due to the ceremony of joining the occupied regions into Russia, the Russian military received an order to hold Lyman so as not to spoil the solemnity of the moment with the retreat. Perhaps the ceremony itself was deliberately held in advance of the official signing of the agreements by the State Duma (Russian parliament) and the Federation Council.

Videos have been published showing BMP-2M infantry fighting vehicles with the tactical sign "bear paw in a circle" (the 3rd Army Corps). They were allegedly filmed in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, this confirms that the units of the 3rd Army Corps are indeed being deployed to different sectors to hold the front line.

On the night of September 29-30, Russian forces hit Mykolaiv with Geran-2 (Shahed-136) loitering munitions and rockets. One of the rockets hit a nine-story building, there may be people under the rubble. By the morning of September 30, eight wounded had been reported.

Photos emerged showing the consequences of a missile attack on a motor transport enterprise in Dnipro. During the search and rescue operation, the bodies of three victims were discovered.

According to the deputy head of the office of the President of Ukraine Kyrylo Tymoshenko, the attack on a column of civilian vehicles in the Zaporizhzhia region on September 30 was carried out by an S-300 anti-aircraft missile system. A total of 16 missiles were launched, four of which hit the area of ​​the car market and the gathering of civilian transport. By the evening of September 30, 30 people were reported killed and 88 injured.

Ukraine received a new type of HIMARS projectile - M30A1 guided rockets, designed to destroy masses of manpower. The key feature of these rockets is detonation in the air, before touching the ground, which provides a larger impact area for shrapnel.

Many military analysts point out that the statements by US officials on extending the delivery of 18 HIMARS launchers for two years is a signal to the Russian leadership. Thus, the United States announces its intention to provide long-term support to Ukraine.

The Pentagon will set up a new command to help Ukraine. The system of training and assistance to Ukraine, which was hastily established in February, needs to be simplified and structured.

Mobilization news

Due to mobilization, prices for body armor have risen sharply everywhere in Russia. The average price for the most primitive bulletproof vest starts from 1000 rubles and some cost even more around 250 thousand rubles. The situation is similar to what allegedly happened in Europe in February-March when Ukrainians bought all the body armor they could find.

Also, due to mobilization, Russia experiences a shortage of tourniquets and other important components of the first-aid kits.

Equipping the mobilized became almost solely the burden of the mobilized themselves and their relatives. In addition, problems with accommodating the new personnel arose prominently.

The press service of the so-called People’s Militia of the DPR published a video which indicates that the first mobilized already arrived in the Donetsk region and are being trained. It is entirely possible that separatists with combat experience may be able to train the new recruits better than the Russian military at training grounds in Russia.

Vladimir Putin signed a decree of the autumn conscription. Usually, conscription is not run concurrently with mobilization and is canceled instead. This did not happen in Russia, however, the recruitment campaign was postponed for a whole month due to severe overload of the enlistment offices. On behalf of our team, we want to warn that conscripts will likely be sent to the occupied territories (after all, they are considered part of Russia now) and it is plausible that immediately after the end of their regular service, the conscripts will be mobilized.

Local legislators in Russia’s constituent republic of Bashkortostan prepared a draft of a new law on sending convicts to the war in Ukraine. They propose to count one day of participation in а military operation for ten days of imprisonment.

Journalists from the independent Proekt publication analyzed the biographies of 112 people whom Russia engaged as leaders of the occupied territories of Ukraine. 12 of them had problems with the law in the past: criminal corruption cases, abuse of power and embezzlement of government funds.