Sitrep for Aug. 16-19, 2024 (as of 9 a.m. UTC+3)
Frontline Situation Update
Urban fighting continues on the outskirts of the town of Toretsk in the Donetsk region. Russian forces' zone of control ends near the town, and they have not yet secured positions on its eastern outskirts.
In the Toretsk direction, Russian forces have nearly captured the village of Niu-York. Russian soldiers have been spotted on its northern outskirts near the village of Nelipivka, though some areas remain contested according to a DeepState map. Additionally, Russian forces are gradually securing territory to the east of Nelipivka, between Niu-York and the town of Zalizne.
A video has been released showing Ukrainian forces using drones to strike a Russian infantry fighting vehicle and an MT-LB multi-purpose armored vehicle on the road from Zalizne to Nelipivka. We believe that Niu-York will be fully captured this week, after which Russian troops are likely to focus on attacking Toretsk from two sides.
In the Kursk direction, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have entered the village of Apanasovka, located southwest of the village of Snagost. A video has been released showing Ukrainian forces removing a Russian flag, reportedly in Apanasovka. Given that Apanasovka was previously near the line of contact, it is likely that the village has been taken by Ukrainian forces. Additionally, Ukrainian forces have gained control of the village of Vnezapnoye, located southeast of Apanasovka and south of the village of Byakhovo.
As expected, the AFU are advancing westward to seize the Glushkovsky district of the Kursk region, bordered by the Seym River to the north and the Russia-Ukraine border to the south. In the western part of the district, where the river crosses the state border, Ukrainian forces have occupied a small area northwest of the border village of Tyotkino, which was recently struck with a precision-guided JDAM bomb. It is worth noting that the supply of Russian forces in this area had to be carried out across the Seym River, which had three bridges until recently.
Over the past week, the AFU struck the bridge in the village of Glushkovo, eventually destroying it with air-dropped bombs, as reported by the Ukrainian Air Force. According to pro-Russian sources, two volunteers from the pro-government All-Russia People's Front movement were killed in this strike while driving across the bridge at the time of the attack. We do not believe that the AFU specifically targeted this vehicle; it was likely collateral damage, proportional to the military advantage the AFU gained by disrupting the supply lines of Russian troops south of the Seym River.
On Aug. 17, the AFU struck the bridge in the village of Zvannoye, significantly damaging it. Although the bridge was not completely destroyed, only a quad bike, motorcycle or bicycle could now possibly cross it. By the morning of Aug. 19, reports began to emerge of the destruction of the third bridge in the village of Karyzh, though visual confirmation has yet to surface.
Just east of Glushkovo, Russian forces have established a pontoon crossing, spotted by journalists reviewing satellite images. Unlike permanent structures such as bridges, pontoon crossings are vulnerable even to tube artillery. During repairs of pontoon crossings, military vehicles often accumulate on both sides of a given wet gap, providing new targets for enemy strikes.
It remains unclear how many Russian troops are present in the Glushkovsky district, which has now been effectively cut off from mainland Russia. There is a growing expectation that more Russian soldiers may be captured en masse in the coming days.
On Aug. 17, a photo emerged purportedly showing a Ukrainian soldier in the village of Korenevo. In response, Russian soldiers released a video filmed next to a sign reading "Korenevo," a common feature in Russian settlements, denying that Ukrainian forces had entered the village. However, it later became apparent that Russian troops are positioned in the urban-type settlement of Korenevo on the right bank of the Krepna River, a tributary of the Seym River, while Ukrainian forces appear to have taken control of the village of Korenevo on the left bank of the same river. Interestingly, the Ukrainian DeepState project only marks the village on its map, while other online sources show two separate localities with the same name. The urban-type settlement was originally named after the nearby railway station, which itself took its name from the adjacent village.
On Aug. 16, the pro-Russian Telegram channel Troika posted a video filmed at the Kolotilovka border crossing in the Belgorod region. The video shows a Russian soldier wearing a St. Andrew's flag badge posing in front of a pole with a severed human head impaled on it. The voiceover makes threats against Ukrainians who have entered Russia.
Later that day, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov posted a video showing Akhmat special forces and marines clearing out the Kolotilovka border crossing. Some footage includes the decapitated body of the Ukrainian soldier from the earlier video.
An audio recording of a radio intercept has also emerged, allegedly capturing a Russian commander ordering his subordinates to behead Ukrainian servicemen. We cannot confirm its authenticity.
The Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine has launched a pre-trial investigation into the violation of the laws and customs of war, as well as premeditated murder (Part 2, Article 438 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine).
The Washington Post has gained access to a prisoner of war camp in the Sumy region of Ukraine, where Russian servicemen are being held. According to the media outlet, 320 captured Russian servicemen have passed through the camp over the past ten days. Of these, only 20% were contract or mobilized soldiers. At the time of publication, approximately 250 conscripts remained in Ukrainian captivity.
An obituary for 18-year-old conscript Daniil Rubtsov from Vologda, who was killed on Aug. 7, the second day of the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region, has been published. This is the second such obituary reported. According to the Astra Telegram channel, at least 42 conscripts have gone missing in the Kursk region since the border breach.
The Washington Post, citing American diplomats and officials, reported that the Ukrainian military operation in the Kursk region disrupted planned indirect negotiations between Russia and Ukraine on a partial ceasefire. The newspaper reports that in August, delegations from Moscow and Kyiv were supposed to travel to Doha for indirect talks aimed at halting strikes on energy infrastructure on both sides, with Qatar acting as a mediator. However, after the AFU began their offensive in the Kursk direction, Russia postponed the meeting. Maria Zakharova, an official spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry, denies that any negotiations were held between Russia and Ukraine.
According to Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntag Zeitung, in 2025, German aid to Ukraine will be limited to €4 billion [$4.43 billion], down from approximately €8 billion [$8.86 billion] in 2024. Reports indicate that the country’s budget lacks the funds to guarantee the reimbursement of additional deliveries by the Bundeswehr. Germany expects that future aid to Ukraine will be financed through frozen Russian Central Bank assets. It is worth noting that in June 2024, the G7 countries agreed to provide Ukraine with a $50 billion loan secured by revenues from these frozen Russian assets. However, this mechanism is legally controversial and has not yet been implemented. Germany remains one of the world’s largest donors to Ukraine, second only to the USA.
Former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has called on British politicians to lift any limitations imposed on the use of weapons supplied to the AFU by its allies.
The Sunday Times reports that British drones played a central role in the AFU's offensive in the Kursk region. However, the exact type of drones involved remains unclear, especially considering that the FPV drones used by Ukraine are locally assembled from Chinese components. While it is likely that some reconnaissance UAVs were supplied by the United Kingdom, the specifics of how they could have played a central role in this operation are not entirely clear.
Russian soldiers looted a Megafon mobile phone store in evacuated Glushkovo and were caught on surveillance cameras. The Agentstvo [Agency] independent media outlet identified at least one of the soldiers as a member of the Chechen Akhmat unit. Pro-Russian volunteer Roman Alekhin claims that the suspects have already been caught and are being "held responsible according to the laws of wartime."
On the night of Aug. 18, Ukrainian UAVs twice attacked an oil depot in the town of Proletarsk, Rostov region. During the firefighting efforts, 41 firefighters were injured. As is often the case in such incidents, Vasily Golubev, Governor of the Rostov region, stated that the attack was repelled by air defense forces. However, he claimed that falling debris caused a diesel fuel fire in the industrial storage area. Satellite images taken on the morning of Aug. 18 show fires burning near several storage tanks. As of 4 p.m. Moscow time on Aug. 19, the fire is still ongoing.
Vladimir Putin has appointed his first cousin once removed Anna Tsivilyova as State Secretary for Russia's Ministry of Defense. Prior to this, since June 17, she held the position of Deputy Defense Minister, where she was responsible for organizing social and housing provisions for military personnel. On Aug. 17, Putin promoted her to State Secretary of the Ministry of Defense. Each government department can have only one State Secretary, who is responsible for the ministry's interactions with the parliament, other state institutions and public organizations. In the Ministry of Defense, the State Secretary also signs orders for the appointment of new officers after they graduate from military academies.
Yurii Butusov, the editor-in-chief of the Censor.net Ukrainian media outlet, reportedly found personal files of wanted Russian draft dodgers in a military commissariat in the town of Sudzha. To assist what he described as "reasonable Russians" who do not wish to fight and die for Putin, he allegedly burned these files.
