Sitrep for Aug. 14-16, 2024 (as of 9 a.m. UTC+3)
Frontline Situation Update
Along most of the frontline, the pace of Russian advances has not slowed; however, we believe it is still too early to say that the Kursk operation has had no impact on this progress.
In the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces have captured the villages of Zhelanne and Orlivka. They continue to move along the railway and have approached the villages of Mykolaivka and Zhuravka, located to the south and north of Orlivka and the railway, respectively. Additionally, fighting has begun in the village of Hrodivka. On Aug. 15, footage surfaced showing Ukrainian FPV drones striking Russian soldiers on the eastern outskirts of the village.
In the Toretsk direction, Russian forces have advanced within the village of Niu-York and have taken control of another section of the bulge between it and the village of Pivdenne.
In the Kursk direction, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are advancing southeast of the town of Sudzha. According to geolocated video footage, they have captured the villages of Bondarevka, Mirny and Mikhailovka. These developments leave no doubt that Sudzha is now fully under Ukrainian control and can be considered a rear area. It is worth noting that we previously reported on the unrestricted movement of Ukrainian military vehicles at the northern entrance to the town.
On Aug. 14, the Ukrainian TV channel TSN released a report from Sudzha. Shortly before this report was published, Apti Alaudinov, a Russian-Chechen military leader, claimed that Sudzha remained under the RuAF control, which sparked ridicule from pro-Russian propaganda Telegram channels.
Due to operational security protocols, many Ukrainian projects release information about AFU advances with significant delays. Therefore, the most up-to-date combat operation map can currently be found not with the DeepState project but with the OSINT military analyst Def Mon.
According to his map, in the western part of the Kursk direction, Ukrainian forces have advanced along the Russia-Ukraine border towards the villages of Gordeyevka, Vnezapnoye and Byakhovo. The AFU are present in the village of Snagost, but it is not yet known whether they have taken control of it. There is ongoing fighting for the village of Korenevo, and the status of the village of Olgovka remains unclear. Ukrainian forces are trying to advance near ​​the village of Zhuravli towards the village of Safonovka, with combat activities also reported near the village of Kremyanoye. To the east of Kremyanoye, Russian forces are likely present, while the village of Malaya Loknya has been captured by the AFU, as has the village of Semyonovka to the northeast of Kremyanoye. Currently, Ukrainian forces are fighting for the village of Kromskiye Byki.
To the northeast of Sudzha, the Ukrainian Army has most likely completely captured the village of Martynovka and is advancing along the highway towards the village of Bolshoye Soldatskoye.
In the southeast of the Kursk direction, the AFU are advancing along the Russia-Ukraine border from the apparently captured village of Plekhovo towards the villages of Borki and Spalnoye. Russian forces launched a drone attack targeting Ukrainian soldiers in the latter village.
Regarding the offensive actions towards Safonovka, it is worth noting that, according to the pro-Russian war correspondent Romanov, the situation on the frontline in this area appears less favorable for the RuAF. According to his map, Russian forces remain present in forest lines to the north of the village of Malaya Loknya, while the AFU have formed salients to the west and east of this territory. These salients extend northward from Kremyanoye to the village of Obshchy Kolodez and to the north of Malaya Loknya through Pogrebki and Shaposhnikovo, along the road to Kromskiye Byki.
A Ukrainian convoy advancing toward the village of Safonovka came under fire from a Russian APC, resulting in the loss of a Cougar MRAP, as well as Roshel Senator and Kozak APCs.
Independent researcher Naalsio has begun tracking military vehicle losses in the Kursk direction.
In the western part of the Kursk direction, the territory to the west of Gordeyevka and Vnezapnoye, extending up to the village of Tyotkino,is bordered by the Seym River, which serves as a water barrier. There are only three bridges across the river: located in the villages of Glushkovo, Zvannoye and Karyzh.
If the AFU destroy these bridges, they may be able to disrupt the supply lines of Russian forces in the area south of the Seym River and capture Tyotkino, where fighting is currently underway. This is likely related to the strikes on Aug. 11 and, presumably, Aug. 15 on the bridge in Glushkovo—photos show impact marks consistent with HIMARS MLRS or Excalibur artillery shells. We saw similar marks in strikes on the Antonivskyi Bridge over the Dnipro River. It is worth noting that destroying such a massive structure typically requires numerous hits with these shells. Using JDAM or Storm Shadow missiles would be more effective; however, launching them would pose significant risks to Ukrainian aircraft.Later reports indicate that on Aug. 16, the AFU launched another strike on the Glushkovo bridge, destroying it, and, according to some sources, also hit the bridge in Zvannoye.
Additionally, as clarified by former UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace, the AFU are permitted to use any British-supplied weapons against targets in Russian territory, with the exception of Storm Shadow long-range missiles. Thus, the AFU can only use short-range weapons supplied by the UK, such as tanks and 105mm howitzers, in this offensive.
Reports indicate that Russian paratroopers from the 98th Brigade were struck with precision-guided JDAM bombs in Tyotkino. Conducting airstrikes in this village, located directly on the border, is safer than targeting areas deeper in Russian territory.
An obituary for a Ukrainian MiG-29 pilot was published several days ago, though the details surrounding his death remain unclear.
As anticipated, the AFU is focusing its efforts on advancing westward and eastward along the border, while expanding their zone of control and securing their flanks in the northern part of the Kursk salient. Meanwhile, extensive fortification work has begun in the Kursk region, with fresh trenches appearing in satellite images on the outskirts of Rylsk, Lgov, Kurchatov and Kursk. However, this does not necessarily indicate that Russian authorities expect Ukrainian forces to reach these locations soon, or even at all. As we have repeatedly pointed out, from a Russian perspective, villages and towns in the border regions should have been evacuated and fortifications built near strategically important sites from the start of the full-scale invasion.
Consequently, numerous job postings for trench construction workers have surfaced online in recent days, offering monthly wages ranging from 150,000 to 210,000 rubles [$1,660 to $2,330]. Kursk regional authorities have denied seeking trench workers, and Avito, the classified ad website hosting the listings, later removed the postings after the story gained attention.
Pro-Russian Telegram channels have published a video of the helicopter of the Russian Aerospace Forces operating, as reported, against Ukrainian equipment. However, the burning trucks clearly display the tactical marking of the Group of Troops "North"—a diamond with a cross. Russian forces almost completely lack coordination among the various military branches operating in the same territory, leading to frequent instances of friendly fire.
Aleksandr Tvardovsky in his epic poem Vasili Tyorkin described the prolonged fighting for the destroyed village of Borki in the second year of the Great Patriotic War [the Russian name for the eastern front of WWII] and the poor interaction between the different branches of the Red Army.
The AFU continue attempts to cross the border in other areas. The Starshiy Na Pogranzastave [Senior at the Border Post] propaganda Telegram channel stated that the RuAF repelled the AFU at the Kolotilovka border point in the Belgorod region (about 45 km [28mi] from the town of Sudzha), which suggests that it had previously been captured by Ukrainian forces. We still believe that such sorties are carried out to distract attention, to prevent Russian forces from delivering a concentrated strike on the main body of the Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region.
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) special forces conducted a raid to capture a Russian company stronghold near the village of Sverdlikovo. A video of the fighting's aftermath shows numerous bodies of killed Russian servicemen. A total of 102 people surrendered: the video demonstrates servicemen from the 488th Motorized Rifle Regiment, including both conscripts and those resembling contract soldiers. It is also reported that fighters from the Akhmat unit were captured.
Propagandists from the Solovyov LIVE TV channel, in a report from Lgov, showed a large crater near a children's pool building, claiming it was the impact site of "one of the downed missiles, presumably a HIMARS." They added that "craters of this depth are rarely seen, a FAB-500 does not cause such powerful destruction." Indeed, such a crater could not have been caused by a HIMARS strike. The crater is presumed to have been formed by yet another accidental drop of a Russian air-dropped bomb (either a FAB-500 or even a FAB-1500).
The RuAF have successfully tracked and destroyed a HIMARS system in the Sumy region. The video captured a fire and secondary detonation, leaving no doubt that the system was destroyed. As far as we know, this is only the second confirmed case of such a system being destroyed.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced the establishment of a military commandant's office in the Kursk region. This underscores Ukraine's compliance with international conventions that oblige the occupying power to maintain order and ensure the security of the population in the controlled territory.
CNN, citing intelligence data, has reported that Russia has deployed several brigades of approximately 1,000 troops each to repel the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region. However, Russia has not yet withdrawn any substantial forces from the main sections of the frontline in Ukraine. Our estimates also suggest that the number of troops in the Kursk region is in the thousands, primarily drawn from the Group of Troops "North," which was previously stationed in the Kharkiv region. CNN further claims that, according to multiple American sources, the United States is restricting Ukraine's use of ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles with a range of up to 300 km [186 mi] in the Kursk region not due to concerns about escalation, but because of their limited availability. The US military leadership reportedly believes these missiles should be reserved for targets in Crimea. This position seems questionable to us, given that facilities in Crimea are relatively well-protected. Eight missiles could only destroy 2 or 3 air defense launchers, while recent Ukrainian UAV attacks on border airfields, such as Morozovsk and a military airfield in the Lipetsk region, have proven effective and have significantly hindered the Russian air force.In our previous sitrep, we have already quoted Governor of the Kharkiv region Oleh Syniehubov, who reported that the number of airstrikes in the Kharkiv region had significantly decreased. We still believe that lifting the restrictions on the use of Western weapons on Russian territory will help substantially reduce the number of strikes by the Russian Aerospace Forces on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure and save more civilian lives.
On the morning of Aug. 14, Ukrainian drones struck the Savasleyka airfield in the Nizhny Novgorod region, where MiG-31 aircraft (carriers of the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic missile) are stationed. The video captured an explosion, and NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) satellite images showed a fire in the area of a special fuel storage facility. Researcher MT Anderson, based on satellite images from Aug. 14, concluded that one building was damaged, but the aircraft and fuel tanks were not affected.
On the same day, the Baltimore and Borisoglebsk military airfields in the Voronezh region, and the Khalino airfield in the Kursk region were also attacked. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported the destruction of four missiles and 117 fixed-wing UAVs.
Germany’s Ministry of Defense published a list of military aid it plans to send to Ukraine by the end of 2024:
- 2 IRIS-T SLM SAM systems;
- 4 IRIS-T SLS launchers;
- 10 Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns;
- 12 PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzers, 4 Zuzana 2 self-propelled howitzers, and an unknown number of RCH 155 self-propelled howitzers;
- drones and anti-drone systems;
- around 30 Leopard 1A5 tanks;
- 400 MRAP vehicles;
- trucks, tankers, SUVs, pickups and minibuses;
- assault rifles like MK 556;
- medical supplies;
- 1 field hospital.
The Wall Street Journal has published an investigation into the September 2022 detonation of the Nord Stream gas pipeline. According to the report, the operation was conceived in May 2022 and initially approved by President Zelenskyy. Ukrainian businessmen financed the operation, while Ukrainian military personnel and civilian divers were involved in executing it. Following the operation, traces of explosives and fingerprints were left on the rented boat, which helped German police identify the suspects and issue an arrest warrant for one of them.
On the evening of Aug. 15, a Tupolev Tu-22M3 strategic bomber crashed in the Irkutsk region. Despite the capabilities of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense's Main Directorate of Intelligence, it is difficult to imagine their involvement in an incident more than 4,000 kilometers [2,485 mi] from the Russia-Ukraine border. Reports indicate that all four pilots ejected, but one later died in the hospital.