Sitrep for July 10-12, 2024 (as of 9 a.m. UTC+3)

Frontline Situation Update

The main focus on the frontline remains the Pokrovsk direction, which currently has three active sectors: Chasiv Yar, Toretsk and the Ocheretyne salient.

After Russian forces captured the villages of Sokil and Yevhenivka on the Ocheretyne salient and began advancing towards Vozdvyzhenka, the village of Novoselivka Persha has found itself semi-encircled. The situation for the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this village is complicated by the water barrier that makes resupply from the west difficult.

In the Toretsk direction, the Russian Armed Forces have made noticeable progress in the village of Niu-York over the past week, with fighting now occurring near the center of the settlement. Additionally, Russian forces are strengthening their flanks to prevent the AFU from cutting off part of the Russian grouping in and around Niu-York.

Recently, there have been reports of a difficult situation for the AFU in the Kupiansk direction, with concerns about a potential defense crisis due to some Russian advances. However, according to DeepState maps, there have been no actual changes in this frontline section since the beginning of the week.

On the Kharkiv axis, both sides continued fighting for positions with varying degrees of success in the town of Vovchansk, with some Russian forces still holding the Vovchansk Aggregate Plant. The AFU have not yet managed to mop it up, although they have recaptured several positions previously held by the main enemy force, while Russian forces have been unable to establish a supply line. The only significant change on this axis over the past week has been the AFU's advance in Hlyboke, which has now ended up semi-encircled. Ukrainian forces are continually targeting supply vehicles and other Russian equipment with drones.

Western Assistance

The anniversary NATO summit has taken place in Washington. Although on the very eve of the summit Russia launched a massive missile strike on Ukraine, including on the Okhmatdyt children's hospital in Kyiv, no radical decisions have yet followed. As it seems, instead of focusing on providing aid to its allies, in particular to Ukraine, the attention of the summit shifted to enhancing the alliance’s own military power to repel a potential future military aggression by Russia. Nevertheless, it was announced that the member states had agreed to provide €40 billion [$44 billion] in aid to Ukraine in 2025.

It turned out that what we thought to be Germany’s fourth delivery of a Patriot system to Ukraine had been announced earlier. This means that Germany will deliver a total of three air defense systems to Ukraine. Additionally, Spain will join the deliveries from other countries.

Australia has approved a record $250 million military aid package for Ukraine. It will include air defense missiles, anti-tank weapons and ammunition.

A previously announced meeting between the Presidents of the United States and Ukraine, Joe Biden and Volodymyr Zelenskyy, took place, after which Biden announced a new $225 million military aid package. Later, it was revealed that the aid package would include:

• the previously pledged Patriot SAM system battery;
• munitions for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS);
• Stinger anti-aircraft missiles;
• ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
• 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds;
• Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) equipment and missiles;
• Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems;
• small arms ammunition;
• demolition munitions;
• spare parts, maintenance and other ancillary equipment.

Regarding our expectations about the international reaction to the Russian attack on the Okhmatdyt children's hospital, we primarily anticipate a potential easing of restrictions on the use of Western precision weapons on Russian territory. However, President Biden's National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan has stated that the US position remains unchanged. While the new British Prime Minister Keir Starmer initially suggested that the AFU could use Storm Shadow cruise missiles for attacks on Russian territory, the British Ministry of Defense later refuted his statement. It is worth noting that this issue remains crucial not only for enhancing the effectiveness of Ukrainian strikes on Russian military targets, but also for minimizing civilian casualties.

Biden, along with the new Prime Minister of the Netherlands Dick Schoof and Prime Minister of Denmark Mette Frederiksen, announced that the first F-16 fighter aircraft have begun arriving in Ukraine, with the transfer of the jets to the AFU set to be completed by the end of summer. The initial batch from the Netherlands includes 24 aircraft, while Denmark is providing 19. Later, fighter jets from Belgium and Norway will also arrive in Ukraine, with six F-16 fighter aircraft promised for 2024. Additionally, the Netherlands has allocated an additional €300 million [$330 million] for purchasing F-16 fighter aircraft ammunition, on top of the previously earmarked €150 million [$165 million].

The reason for delivering such a large batch of aircraft now remains unclear to us, especially considering earlier statements indicating that not enough pilots have completed their training (assuming the need for two pilots per aircraft). Logically, reserve aircraft should be stationed safely on NATO country airfields. However, Sullivan stated in June that the aircraft supplied to the AFU would be based in Ukraine. We do not see a fundamental contradiction here and expect that, in reality, only the six aircraft for which pilots have already been trained will be actively deployed and used in Ukraine.

Spain has completed the repair and modernization of 10 Leopard 2A4 tanks, which will soon be transferred to Ukraine; an additional nine tanks will be ready by September. It is worth noting that back in May, we reported that Spain had promised to deliver 10 tanks by the end of June.

CNN, citing its sources, reported that the Russian government was planning to assassinate Armin Papperger, the chief executive of the German automotive and arms manufacturer Rheinmetall. The plan was discovered by American intelligence, which alerted their German counterparts, leading to the prevention of the murder.

Ukrainian and Russian Strikes

For the first time in a long while, Ukrainian drones have been spotted near Moscow. According to Mayor Sergey Sobyanin, air defense intercepted a drone in the Stupino urban district of Moscow, with no reported damage or casualties. This incident might be a precursor to a new wave of Ukrainian UAV attacks on Moscow and the Moscow region.

Governor of the Belgorod region Vyacheslav Gladkov stated that on the evening of July 11, a Ukrainian drone dropped a munition in the courtyard of an apartment building in Shebekino, injuring five children. This information has yet to be confirmed by other sources.

Over the past year, we have seen numerous videos of Russian tanks where, after minor damage, the crew panicked and abandoned their vehicle. This behavior suggests a lack of training, experience and low motivation among the crews.

On the contrary, Ukrainian tank crewmen demonstrate excellent training and high morale. A video has surfaced showing a Ukrainian tank hit by an FPV drone, yet the tank commander assessed the situation, ordered the driver to return to his positions and successfully extinguished the fire that had started—all while on the move. It is worth noting that he not only managed to bring the tank back to base but also preserved the entire crew. This is significant as soldiers who abandon a damaged tank in forward positions risk stepping on a mine or coming under attack from another FPV drone.

Another example of the unprofessionalism of Russian soldiers can be seen in a video showing a soldier trying to fend off a flying drone with his bulletproof vest.

A video has surfaced showing Russian soldiers executing Ukrainian prisoners of war on the Zaporizhzhia axis. In the video, two Ukrainian POWs are in a trench while two Russian soldiers with weapons walk nearby. They give commands to the Ukrainians, force them to lie down in the trench and then shoot them. It is clearly visible in the video that the Ukrainian POWs posed no threat to the Russian soldiers. Thus, what is happening in the video—the execution of POWs—is a war crime. As we have already mentioned in connection with a recent New York Times article, in the absence of a suitable protagonist and relying solely on video footage, major Western publications are unlikely to release a story about such cases.

The Black Swan unit of the AFU’s 225th Separate Assault Battalion has posted a message confirming they engage in the deliberate tactic of wounding Russian soldiers with a drone strike and awaiting the arrival of evacuation teams to launch a second strike, aiming to kill the rescue party. While such actions are prohibited by international law, they are routinely practiced by both sides in the war.

The pro-Russian Fighterbomber Telegram channel, associated with the Russian Air and Space Force, has published recordings of radio communications where Beriev A-50 AEW&C aircraft operators assist Su-34 bomber pilots in evading incoming Patriot missiles. These recordings clearly illustrate the critical role the A-50s play in Russian air operations; without them, Russian pilots would likely find it much more difficult to complete their missions. Additionally, the recordings reveal a Ukrainian vulnerability, as AEW&C aircraft can detect Patriot systems and theoretically guide another fighter jet or ground-launched missile, such as an Iskander ballistic missile, to destroy them. The only thing preventing this scenario from happening is the well-documented delays in decision-making, or kill chain, within the Russian military. Furthermore, these recordings also illustrate that while aerial dogfights have been rare in the current war, missile evasion maneuvers remain essential.

Conscription, Mobilization and Contract Military Service

In our previous sitrep, we reported that the authorities of Tatarstan [Russia’s constituent republic] would pay a reward to those who "bring" someone willing to sign a contract with the Russian MoD. Just a day later, the reward amount was increased from 50,000 rubles [$565] to 100,000 rubles [$1,130]. Additionally, while previously only friends, relatives, draft office employees, and administration and agency staff could act as "recruiters," now anyone can receive the reward, with the exception of convicts, suspects, and those already serving in volunteer units. We anticipate this practice will soon be adopted in other regions as well.

The shortage of military personnel in the Russian Army is becoming increasingly evident, reflected not only in the substantial sign-up bonuses offered by both federal and regional authorities, but also in changes to admission rules for military schools. A message posted on the cadet page of the Moscow Higher Combined Arms Command School on the VKontakte social network indicates that currently, even those who have not yet passed the Unified State Exam [graduation examination in Russia’s schools], scored poorly or have issues with their documents, can be admitted. It is worth noting that enrolling in such a school typically places individuals immediately on a contract, and upon completing accelerated training, they are at risk of being deployed to the frontline.

On July 8, another protest by military wives took place outside the Ministry of Defense building in Moscow. As expected, pro-government "activists" were present and attempted to disrupt the event. One participant shared video messages from her husband and other mobilized soldiers, who stated they would not tolerate provocations or attempts to slander their wives and mothers. They asserted they would defend their wives and mothers instead of the government. However, the credibility of these soldiers' intentions is uncertain, as their identities were concealed in the videos.

The Vot Tak [Like This] media outlet has calculated that since the start of the full-scale invasion, at least 58 criminal cases related to the Russian Volunteer Corps and the "Freedom of Russia Legion" have been initiated in Russia. In fact, we have noticed a significant increase in news about such criminal cases in the last two months, and we believe that many of them may stem from provocations by Russian intelligence services.

On July 17 at 6:00 p.m. Moscow time, we will host another livestream to answer your questions and introduce another team member.