Sitrep for May 15-23, 2026 (as of 7:30 a.m. UTC+3)

Ukrainian and Russian Strikes

In the early hours of May 22, Ukrainian forces struck the pedagogical college in Starobilsk, Luhansk region. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine acknowledged the strike but stated that the target was not a civilian infrastructure site, claiming it was one of the headquarters of the Rubikon unit in the Starobilsk area. The main impacts hit the college’s academic building and dormitory facilities. The footage was also analyzed by Mark Krutov, editor of the Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. At first glance, the scale of destruction to the main structure appeared excessive for a UAV strike alone. However, one survivor stated that several UAVs struck the building in succession, and that after one of the impacts the internal floor slabs collapsed. According to the witness, he fell from the fifth to the second floor without sustaining serious injuries. Together with footage showing beds and mattresses among the debris, this indicates that the upper floor of the academic building was being used as a dormitory.

According to official figures, by the evening of May 23, the death toll had risen to 18, with 43 wounded, although earlier the head of the so-called Luhansk People's Republic, Leonid Pasechnik, had reported 48 casualties. Three individuals remain missing. Among the wounded were 16 minors, as well as at least one local resident living in a private house adjacent to the college. Published obituaries and lists of those killed and missing indicate that students were indeed present in the buildings at the time of the strike, a significant portion of them female.

We acknowledge that certain college facilities may have been used by the Rubikon unit to train drone operators. However, we have not seen any evidence of this. Even if some of the premises were used by the military, striking an active college would still constitute a war crime due to the disproportionate collateral damage. At the same time, it cannot be definitively labeled an intentional strike on a civilian target. Negligence or an intelligence failure seems to be a more likely cause. Unfortunately, we believe it is likely that the Ukrainian government will not investigate this incident and will dispute Russian data on the number of casualties.

In previous sitreps, we have already reported on the AFU’s use of Hornet drones. According to data collected by researchers Moklasen and Clément Molin, these UAVs have become a serious and systematic threat in the south of the occupied territories, particularly in the Kherson region. Volodymyr Saldo, the Russian-appointed governor of the Kherson region, signed a decree restricting the movement of trucks not carrying military cargo on a section of the R-280 highway leading to the Dzhankoi border-crossing point. This measure will undoubtedly improve the safety of civilians, but it also means that Ukrainian forces can now assume that any truck observed on this route belongs to the military. Unlike strikes on oil refineries, which have not resulted in a shortage of diesel fuel for the Russian Armed Forces, strikes on warehouses and especially on logistical routes lead to supply delays and a slowdown in combat operations, which can directly affect the situation on the frontline.

Mikhail Razvozhayev, the Russian-appointed governor of Sevastopol, has introduced restrictions on fuel sales. At one of the city’s retail chains, TES, gasoline sales are now limited to 20 liters per customer. He also reported that diesel fuel at the chain’s filling stations is being sold using vouchers and that supply disruptions have occurred due to "logistical difficulties." In addition, it became known that similar sales restrictions have been introduced in the occupied part of the Zaporizhzhia region.

A video has emerged showing a strike by an AASM HAMMER glide bomb launched from a Ukrainian Air Force Mikoyan MiG-29 fighter jet on May 5, 2026. Such bombs are supplied by allies in insufficient quantities. For example, nearly a year ago, Defense Express reported that the AFU require at least 100 glide bombs per day—approximately half the number currently used by the Russian Aerospace Forces—while deliveries from Europe and the United States cannot meet this demand. Back in June 2025, the Ukrainian Medoid Design Bureau had already demonstrated its own UMPK kit for the FAB-500 air-dropped bomb, which was deployed from the Sukhoi Su-24M tactical bomber, but this project did not advance for unknown reasons.

On May 18, Ukraine's Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov announced the development of a new Ukrainian guided air-dropped bomb under the Brave1 defense tech platform. This weapon is the first to successfully complete the necessary testing and is now ready for combat deployment. The guidance kit is designed to be installed on American Mark 82 unguided bombs, which weigh approximately 250 kg [551 lbs] and can be supplied by the United States in large quantities. Structurally, it differs from similar solutions that have already been mass-produced in various countries. According to Business Insider, the new air-dropped bomb is named "Virivnyuvach" [Leveler], was developed by DG Industry, and will cost about one-third as much as American JDAM-ER glide bombs.

Published video footage shows a group of Russian Molniya-P aircraft drone interceptors operating using an airspace control system radar. According to Michael Kofman, this tactical radar network poses a serious problem for Ukrainian forces, enabling the RuAF to effectively detect and intercept Ukrainian reconnaissance drones.

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) reported finding fragments of a Russian R-60 air-to-air missile with elevated radiation levels near the village of Kamka in the Chernihiv region. The missile had been installed as a self-defense measure on a Geran-2 loitering munition, which was used during an attack on the night of April 7, 2026. R-60 missiles use rod-shaped striking elements made of depleted uranium. We discussed the use of this material in munitions in 2023. Uranium rods have the same dimensions as steel ones but are significantly heavier and retain energy better when dispersed after an explosion, which increases the warhead's effectiveness. It should be noted that depleted uranium is generally considered radiologically safe and does not cause significant contamination, but unexploded ordnance itself is dangerous for civilians who may come across it. Yurii Ihnat, Head of the Communications Department of the Air Force of the AFU, also stated that the elevated radiation levels on one of the downed Russian drones are related to components of the R-60 missile that this material is standard in Soviet-era aviation missiles.

Following the May 20 strike in the city of Belgorod, tail sections of GMLRS rockets for HIMARS systems were found. Munitions of this type are used infrequently in the Belgorod region. The exact target of the strike is currently unknown, and there have been no reported casualties.

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