November 3, 2022

Sitrep for November 2-3 (as of 14:00)

The situation on the frontline

On the Svatove axis, Russian forces are trying to attack in the direction of Makiivka, Nevske and Bilohorivka. The weather will improve next week, so we can expect more active hostilities on the front line.

The pro-Russian Telegram channel "Ugolok Sitkha" (“Sith's corner”) published a number of photographs (one of them shows a Soviet World War II-era D-1 M1943 152.4 mm howitzer) and reported about the difficulties of trench life during muddy season.

To the south of Donetsk, including the Vuhledar axis (near Pavlivka), Russian offensive attempts continue, but so far without much progress.

Pro-Russian military correspondent Aleksandr Khodakovsky complains about mud and impassable roads that prevent Russian forces from advancing towards Pavlivka.

Another pro-Russian military correspondent Vladlen Tatarsky (real name: Maxim Fomin) described a difficult situation on the Donetsk front and mentioned a lack of counter-battery warfare means.

The pro-Russian Telegram channel “Voyenkor Kotyonok Z” reported about Russian losses near Vuhledar.

On the Kherson axis, there are also no big changes on the frontline yet. Analyst Def Mon studied satellite imagery and reported that there are defensive positions in almost every forest belt west of Kherson, and Russian forces continue to build fortifications.

At the same time, Kyselivka (a settlement northwest of Kherson) looks deserted on satellite images, but a massive concentration of Russian forces can be seen to the south of it. The current situation west of Kyselivka is unclear.

The Russian flag disappeared from the city administration building in Kherson. Most likely it happened due to the fact that the occupation administration had been moved to Skadovsk.

Kyrylo Stremousov, the deputy head of the Kherson regional occupation administration, claims that Russian troops are most likely to move to the left bank of the Dnipro. Our team does not consider him a trustworthy source.

Downstream from the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant, Russian forces are actively using ferry crossings.

On November 2, the AFU struck near the power plant, causing a fire at the crossing over the canal lock. The HPP main building was not damaged.

There were also videos of strikes on the Antonivskyi Bridge or on the ferry crossing, which is located next to it. The strikes happened on November 1 and 2.

The occupation administration of Kherson declared that the evacuation of civilians from the right bank is over. Now all crossings will be available only for the military.

Looting has become more severe, as expected. Civilian vehicles are moved out to the left bank by tow trucks, and soldiers loot abandoned houses.

On the night of November 2, the city of Toretsk in the Donetsk region was shelled. According to Pavlo Kyrylenko, the head of the Regional Military Administration, a hospital building, private houses, high-rise residential buildings, office buildings, and garages were damaged. We emphasize that strikes on medical institutions constitute a war crime.

On the evening of November 2, explosions were heard in Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, Kharkiv and the Kharkiv region, and Mykolaiv. Additionally, it is reported that the Ukrainian air defense in Zaporizhzhia demonstrated its effectiveness.

Mobilization news

On the night of November 2, about 100 mobilized soldiers began a mass protest. The men are dissatisfied with living conditions and the lack of promised payments. One of the mobilized said that the unit is in full strike, they did not attend the classes and remain at the location of the unit.

The head of Karelia, Artur Parfenchikov, admitted that the mobilization in the region continued after Defense Minister Shoigu’s words about its completion and called it a “necessary rotation”, but promised no more draft notices would be issued after November 2nd.

A Ukrainian drone flew into the Belgorod region and dropped grenades into the trenches with Russian soldiers, one man was wounded. We believe that even if conscripts are not sent to the newly annexed territories, they will be sent to the border regions — Kursk, Bryansk, Belgorod, and Rostov regions — where they are also under threat.

A well-regarded journalist among military experts, Neil Hauer, went to the Ukrainian 63rd brigade, which holds the front near Kherson. He says that a few weeks ago they took up a position in the Snihurivka area and continue to reinforce their position. Since taking the position, the volume of shelling has significantly decreased, and the last serious Russian attack was about a month and a half ago. A large number of advancing soldiers were killed, the rest retreated. The Ukrainian soldiers had to bury the dead because the Russians did not return to pick up the bodies. Also, according to the fighters, the mobilized are very poorly prepared and are actively surrendering.

New information about a Mi-8 helicopter downed on the 31st of October near Berestove village has appeared. Firstly, its hull number became known and it’s confirmed that it was a Russian helicopter. Secondly, some  information about the pilot became known. It was a retired commander of a combat helicopter regiment Vyacheslav Mikhaylovich Zangiev from Vladikavkaz.

The New York Times with reference to their sources informed that Russian military officials discussed the use of nuclear weapons. The article emphasized that Putin was not party to the discussion. We suppose that the conversations are related to Russian defeats. The article said that the intelligence information had been known since mid-October, but we don’t see any changes as to Russia’s readiness to use nuclear weapons.

US National Security Council coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby says North Korea is providing Russia with a significant amount of artillery shells.

Photos have been published of German ATF Dingo MRAP infantry mobility vehicles prepared for shipping to Ukraine.

Ukrainian TV presenter and public figure Serhiy Prytula launched a new fundraising campaign.  The aim is to raise 200 million hryvnias for the purchase of 50 Spartan armored vehicles. These are demilitarized armored vehicles with weapons removed, but they can be equipped with a machine gun and used as armored personnel carriers. Such tracked armored vehicles will be very useful in muddy conditions.  Our team fully supports the idea.