November 22, 2022

Sitrep for November 21–22 (as of 15:00)

The situation on the frontline

There was a video reportedly showing a Russian strike on Bakhmut with thermite incendiary munitions. These are the same munitions as the ones used to hit Vuhledar. But, unfortunately, the quality of the video recording is very low, so it cannot be verified yet.

Despite the fact that Bakhmut is on the line of contact, there are still a number of civilians there.

Yesterday we spoke about the importance of the railway communication between Donetsk and southern Ukraine. Later we received a message stating that there was no active railway in this section.

In our opinion, it is important to note that if this section is secured by pushing the Armed Forces of Ukraine further from the current frontline, the railway connection between Donetsk and the grouping of Russian troops in southern Ukraine can be restored in a fairly short time. In that case the situation with the supply of Russian forces will improve significantly.

Over the past day, there were no significant changes on the frontline. The Wagner Group forces continue to operate on the Bakhmut axis. Various media publish videos showing work of their tank unit, in which a T-90M tank can be seen.

At the same time, there is no reliable evidence that these tanks are used by the Wagner Group fighters. Perhaps these are the tanks of the 3rd Army Corps, which was sent to reinforce the Wagner Group.

There was an explosion in the village of Vesele near Melitopol.

According to the Ukrainian mayor of the occupied Melitopol Ivan Fedorov, there were three explosions at the base of the Russian forces, established on the territory of one of the farms (An office building housed the personnel, and military vehicles were parked nearby).

In occupied Makiivka, on the night of November 21, Ukrainian forces hit fuel tanks (presumably with a kamikaze drone), resulting in a large fire, which was extinguished using a fire train.

The Ukrayinska Pravda media outlet with reference to sources in law enforcement agencies and the SBU (Security Service of Ukraine), reports that on November 18, Russian soldiers shot an entire family in the occupied part of the Zaporizhzhia region. This story is confirmed by one of the major Ukrainian Telegram channels, “Nikolaevsky Vanyok” (“Ivan from Mykolaiv''), which is probably associated with the AFU.

Russian forces continue strikes on the territory of Ukraine:

  • on the night of November 21, in the village of Shevchenkove, Kharkiv region, a residential building was hit, one person was killed;
  • on the night of November 21 in Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk region, Russian shells also directly hit a one-storied house, as a result a 78-year-old man was injured;
  • On November 21, Kherson was hit, several people were injured.

According to the head of the WHO European Bureau Hans Kluge, 2-3 million Ukrainians will leave their homes when the weather gets cold. Thus, massive strikes on Ukrainian cities and towns will lead to a new wave of refugees in Europe.

Based on visual data, the Oryx project confirmed the loss of 40% of the tanks that were in service with the Russian army on February 24, 2022.

Ukroboronprom, the Ukrainian defense industry association, reports that joint operations to produce 122 and 152 mm caliber ammunition as well as 120 mm mortar rounds have started in Europe. Contracts to create new defense enterprises, start production of military equipment, and jointly develop new types of weaponry were signed with Poland, Czech Republic, France, Denmark, and several other countries.

The new 77th Air Mobile Brigade was formed in Ukraine. Judging by photographs, it is armed with Dingo armored vehicles, BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicles, T-80BV tanks, International MaxxPro MRAP armored fighting vehicles, and Kozak armored vehicles. Rumor has it that the first battalion of the brigade was trained in the UK.

Also in Ukraine, the Turan battalion was formed consisting of Azeri and Kyrgyz fighters.

Curiously, rumors of a “Turan Private Military Company”, manned with recruits from Central Asia, once circulated during the Syrian war.

The story was later proven to be completely made up by the Russian war correspondent Oleg Blokhin. Speaking of him, the journalist has recently returned to Russia from Syria where he was detained under mysterious circumstances. Blokhin himself has claimed that Syrian special services kidnapped him under orders by General Chaiko.

France transferred two Crotale anti-aircraft systems as well as 2 MLRS systems to Ukraine.

It has now been revealed that the UK is supplying not just older Brimstone 1 missiles, but also modern Brimstone 2 missiles to Ukraine. This model has a much superior maximum range and an improved seeker.

The German PzH 2000 howitzers, which were handed over to Ukraine, go out of operation during the war, and their repair is difficult due to the lack of spare parts, which leads to forced cannibalization.

Luxembourg transfers HMMWV infantry mobility vehicles to Ukraine and is considering the possibility of supplying 155 mm ammunition and drones.

Lithuania will transfer additional ammunition to Ukraine.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that the alliance had depleted much of its own supplies of weapons and ammunition and would need to work with industry to "ramp up production" in order to continue its support of Ukraine.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine believe that the launch of the production of Iranian drones in Russia will not be quick. According to Yuriy Ignat, the spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force Command, Iran has handed over Shahed drones and drawings to Russia in order to avoid sanctions pressure. We do not agree with this opinion and believe that it is possible to start the assembly fairly quickly. We also believe that the launch of production in Russia is not associated with sanctions, but with a very high rate of consumption of these munitions, which Iran does not have time to produce in the quantity needed by Russian troops.

Poland has accepted Germany's proposal to place Patriot air defense systems on the border with Ukraine. We believe that these systems will continue to protect only the airspace of Europe. Shooting down missiles in Ukrainian airspace requires a serious political decision.

Russian forces continue to install concrete blocks in different directions and reinforce them with chains or barbed wire.

Mobilization News

MinTsifry [the Ministry of Digital Development, Communications and Mass Media of Russia] will put together an additional list of IT specialists to make them exempt, as the officials claim, from the autumn draft.

Verstka media outlet compiled a map of protest activities conducted by relatives of mobilized servicemen in different regions of Russia. Public statements and appeals in one form or another were held in 15 regions, the most noticeable – in the regions bordering Ukraine: Kursk and Voronezh.

Mobilized soldiers from the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Region – Yugra, who are now undergoing training in Chebarkul, stress its poor quality. According to them, in the course of their month-long deployment there, they were brought to the shooting range only three times, but weapons weren’t issued, they were taught to shoot with blanks and threw snowballs instead of grenades.

Russian citizen Yulia Prokhorova, who had mocked Ukrainian refugees and filmed a video about it, was deported from Germany.

9 years ago, on November 21, the Ukrainian Euromaidan revolution began.

Thomas C. Theiner’s rationale (explaining why what had occurred in Makiivka was not a war crime) seems untenable to us. We believe that for such conclusions, in accordance with the Geneva Convention, it is necessary to prove that the lying soldiers posed a threat.