Sitrep for Nov. 25-27, 2024 (as of 11 a.m. UTC+3)
Frontline Situation Update
Russian forces continue to advance on the eastern, starting from Selydove, and southern parts of the frontline in the Donetsk region. The most active attacks are occurring at the Vremevsky ledge, where the Russian Armed Forces are advancing west of Velyka Novosilka, aiming to encircle the village. As was suggested earlier, Russian forces are advancing toward the villages of Kostiantynopil and Andriivka to cut off the N-15 highway, a critical supply route for the fortified area around Kurakhove.
In the pocket along the Sukhi Yaly River, the situation has seen little change over the past few days. Fighting continues, but Russian progress has slowed.
North of the Kurakhove Reservoir, Russian forces are straightening the frontline near the villages of Voznesenka and Novoselydivka.
In the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces are advancing northwest of Selydove, around the villages of Petrivka, Pustynka, and Zhovte. Given the current pace of the offensive, it appears unlikely that the RuAF will reach Pokrovsk by the end of the year (as some sources suggested).
In central Kurakhove, according to DeepState, a small area is now under Russian control; footage from there was published by pro-Russian war correspondent Alexander Sladkov. The video shows soldiers moving in short bursts rather than walking calmly, suggesting that the residential neighborhood east of the captured area is not yet under Russian control. It appears that assault troops broke through this sector and established positions in multi-story buildings. As previously noted, urban structures can serve as ready-made fortifications, making it extremely difficult to push back the enemy. Due to a shortage of personnel, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are struggling to counter such localized breakthroughs, which could lead to the rapid loss of towns.
In the Kharkiv region, Russian forces have managed to cross the Oskil River in the Kupiansk direction and establish a small bridgehead on its western bank near the village of Novomlynsk. While this development could facilitate an offensive on Kupiansk, it is premature to draw conclusions, as the town remains distant, and it is uncertain whether the RuAF will be able to capitalize on this success in the near future.
Ukrainian and Russian Strikes
New details have emerged about the Ukrainian missile attack on S-400 air defense system positions northwest of Kursk in the early hours of Nov. 24. It is worth noting that, according to the Dos’ye Shpiona [Spy Dossier] Telegram channel, the strike targeted the village of Bolshoe Zhirovo, while the Russian MoD claims the village of Lotarevka was attacked, located 12 km [7.5 mi] to the west. Russian news agencies reported the death of two people (apparently civilians), indirectly confirming information about Almaz-Antey employees [Russian state-owned concern in the arms industry] killed in the strike. In addition, two obituaries have also appeared for the junior officers killed, whose names were previously published by the Dos’ye Shpiona Telegram channel. The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that three out of five ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles were shot down in that strike, while seven out of eight missiles were shot down in the strike on the Khalino airfield east of Kursk in the early hours of Nov. 25. The ministry also published photographs of missile parts found after those attacks.
Judging by the lack of impact marks of anti-aircraft missile prefabricated fragments, the images show parts of ATACMS missiles that have not been intercepted. One of the photos shows the position of a Pantsir-S1 surface-to-air missile and anti-aircraft artillery system, geolocated by Mark Krutov, editor of the Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty news service. We do not consider this to be sensitive information, since such positions can be identified using satellite images.
Reuters sources among Ukrainian officials claim that the Oreshnik IRBM launched by the RuAF at the city of Dnipro carried no explosives. In the previous sitrep, we had already mentioned the hypothesis of the BBC News Russian military observer Pavel Aksyonov about the use of kinetic warheads.
A researcher from the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies told Reuters that North Korea is expanding a factory that produces short-range missiles reportedly used by Russia in its war against Ukraine. Satellite images show new industrial and residential buildings under construction at the February 11 plant in the North Korean city of Hamhung, where KN-23 solid-fueled ballistic missiles are assembled.
KN-23 missiles, similar to Russia’s Iskander ballistic missile, are notoriously difficult to intercept. Their ability to alter their trajectory mid-flight and follow quasi-ballistic flight paths poses significant challenges for air defense systems, which struggle to predict their trajectories. Moreover, the KN-23’s in-flight maneuverability enhances its precision. Analysts warn that an increase in the production and potential delivery of these missiles to Russia could pose a far greater threat to Ukraine than Russia’s recent use of the experimental Oreshnik missile.
Serhii Sternenko, a prominent Ukrainian activist and YouTuber, has shared a compilation of footage showing FPV drones intercepting Russian reconnaissance UAVs. Notably, unlike earlier videos, these clips show interceptor drones targeting the upper hemisphere of the enemy UAVs. It remains unclear whether the video includes older recordings or if countermeasures to evade these interceptors have not yet been widely deployed by Russian forces.
On Sept. 8, a resident of Saint Petersburg, 39-year-old Dmitry Surov, was arrested on suspicion of murdering his 18-year-old daughter. According to investigators, he had inflicted at least 58 knife wounds on the girl while drunk. On Sept 11, he was placed in custody for two months, but on Nov. 19, he posted a photo of himself in uniform and carrying a weapon on his profile on the VKontakte social network. Talking to the Sever.Realii online outlet, part of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, he confirmed that he was going to war because he was a true patriot. Surov is known to have earlier received suspended sentences for stealing a vehicle, robbery and stealing or spoiling documents.
In the city of Chita, journalist Nika Novak has been sentenced to four years in prison under charges of confidential cooperation with a foreign organization. She was arrested in Moscow in 2023 and transferred to the Zabaykalsky region in 2024. Novak had been working as a free-lance correspondent for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty since 2022. As revealed by the Agentstvo media outlet, it is this radio station that was deemed to be a foreign organization by the court. This is the first time that a journalist is imprisoned under this article.
We believe there are no foreign specialists in Ukraine programming Western-made missiles, contrary to claims by some Russian officials and propagandists. Ukrainian military personnel were trained long ago to input coordinates for GMLRS projectiles, and using ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles launched from HIMARS MLRS should not differ significantly in principle. However, we believe foreign military or civilian specialists may be present in Ukraine to assist in integrating Western technologies with Soviet systems—for example, Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG missiles launched from Soviet Su-24 bombers. Additionally, a new photo has surfaced showing a Ukrainian FrankenSAM, based on the Buk-M1 air defense system and the American-made RIM-7 Sea Sparrow surface-to-air missile.
In our previous sitrep, we mentioned rumors regarding the dismissal of General-Colonel Gennady Anashkin, commander of the Group of Troops "South." It has since been revealed that he will now head the Frunze Military Academy. According to an RBC [Russian media group] source in the Ministry of Defense, since Soviet times, this academy has typically been led by generals who previously served as commanders or chiefs of staff of military districts. For example, in 2017, it was briefly led by General Pavel Lapin. The RBC source stated that Anashkin "has extensive experience commanding troops in combat conditions and will be able to provide quality education for future commanders based on this experience." However, questions arise about the quality of this education, considering Anashkin was dismissed for falsifying reports on the progress of combat operations, which led to the deaths of subordinates.
On Nov. 26, Secretary of the Russian Security Council Sergei Shoigu (formerly Russia’s Minister of Defense) met with Sirajuddin Haqqani, likely the most wanted militant of the Taliban movement and now Afghanistan's Minister of the Interior. Haqqani leads the Haqqani Network, responsible for numerous sabotage and terrorist attacks, including the assault on the Kabul Serena Hotel. Years ago, US authorities designated Haqqani as an especially dangerous international terrorist, offering a $10 million reward for information leading to his capture.
Also on Nov. 26, a draft law was submitted to the Russian State Duma [the lower house of the Federal Assembly] proposing the removal of the Taliban from the list of terrorist organizations.
Meanwhile, authorities in the Omsk region organized a peculiar "Black Friday" by increasing sign-up bonuses for contracts with the Ministry of Defense from 400,000 rubles to 800,000 rubles [from $3,850 to $7,690] for those who enlist within three weeks, from Nov. 25 to Dec. 20, 2024. Including the national bonus, new recruits could receive a total of 1.2 million rubles [$11,400].
It has been reported that some Ukrainian military units received defective 120mm mortar shells produced in Ukraine. Numerous publications, including statements by members of the Verkhovna Rada and investigative reports by journalists, have highlighted this issue. The defective crates have bolts protruding inside, which tear the packaging of the propelling charges during transport, allowing moisture to seep in. As a result, soldiers on the front lines are forced to dry the propellant using makeshift methods. However, this process cannot fully restore the propellant’s properties, and in some cases, the propelling charge either fails to ignite or functions poorly, causing the mortar shell to get stuck in the mortar tube or fall immediately after being launched.
The scale of this problem and the number of units affected by this defective shipment remain unclear. According to journalist Yurii Butusov, 100,000 such mortar shells have been recalled. Reports indicate that no replacements were provided, while the defective batch of shells was withdrawn. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has stated that an investigation is underway.