Sitrep for Nov. 22-25, 2024 (as of 10:30 a.m. UTC+3)

Frontline Situation Update

On the Vremivka salient, South Donetsk direction, the pace of the Russian forces' advance has significantly increased. In recent days, they have progressed from the villages of Shakhtarske, Rozdolne and Zolota Nyva, reaching the outskirts of Velyka Novosilka, where fighting has now commenced. Additionally, they are attempting to advance northward from the village of Rivnopil, aiming to attack the ledge from the west as well.

Velyka Novosilka holds strategic importance for Ukrainian defenses in the southern Donetsk region. After the fall of Vuhledar, it became a stronghold at the junction of the southern and western fronts. Russian forces are aiming to capture the Vremivka salient; however, according to Ukrainian military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets, they are also likely to push northward from the village of Yasna Poliana toward the villages of Kostyantynopil and Andriivka to cut off the N-15 highway—a key supply route for the fortified area near the town of Kurakhove. Earlier assessments suggested that the RuAF might target the highway near the villages of Andriivka or Dachne, with the latter being closer for an advance along the northern bank of the Kurakhove Reservoir. It seems probable that the RuAF will attempt to cut off the highway at points where Ukrainian defenses prove weakest along this stretch.

In the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces continue to press their assault along the pocket near the Sukhi Yaly River. In recent days, they have captured the villages of Illinka and, likely, Yelyzavetivka, although control of the latter remains unconfirmed. This suggests that the RuAF have already secured the eastern portion of the pocket.

Additionally, Russian forces are advancing in the Pokrovsk direction, pushing westward from the town of Selydove and north of the Kurakhove Reservoir.

In the Kursk region, Russian forces have made a minor advance close to the border into the Ukrainian bridgehead south of the village of Snagost. Pro-Russian war correspondents have published footage reportedly showing Ukrainian KIAs in the Olgovskaya wood, located on the salient near the villages of Olgovka and Kremyanoye. Pro-Russian war correspondent Vladimir Romanov shared a drone video allegedly showing dead bodies, though it is impossible to identify which side they belong to. Pro-Russian Komsomolskaya Pravda correspondent Aleksandr Kots posted several ground-level photos. We doubt that the bodies shown are those of the Ukrainian soldiers killed during the recent mopping-up operation in the salient surrounded by Russian forces. In our opinion, they have been lying there for at least several weeks. The Ukrainian DeepState project reported earlier that it was working to clarify the situation in the Olgovskaya wood, which resulted in "significant personnel losses and the executions of our prisoners."

In the early hours of Nov. 24, Ukrainian forces launched an attack on a facility in the Kursk region, presumably with ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles. CCTV footage captured loud explosions at the site. The General Staff of the AFU stated that the strike destroyed an S-400 air defense system radar at the positions of the anti-aircraft missile battalion of the 1490th Anti-aircraft Missile Regiment of the Russian 6th Army. The Dos’ye Shpiona [Spy Dossier] Telegram channel reported that the strike was indeed carried out with ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles, and in addition to the ground surveillance radar, two S-400 SAM system launchers were destroyed, and five RuAF officers and three employees of Almaz-Antey [Russian state-owned concern in the arms industry] were killed.

Reports have emerged in numerous pro-Russian Telegram channels that Colonel General Gennady Anashkin, commander of the Group of Troops "South," has been removed from his position for submitting false reports about troop advances near the town of Siversk. The forgery was discovered only due to an unexpected visit from higher authorities. It was previously reported that similar actions were taken against several RuAF unit commanders who misled their leadership about the capture of villages near Siversk. In particular, the commander and chief of staff of the 3rd Guards Combined Arms Luhansk-Severodonetsk Army, as well as the commanders of the 6th, 7th and 123rd RuAF brigades, were dismissed. False reports of conquered territory result in flawed plans for further attacks and significant losses of personnel and equipment. The practice of "Photo Report Forces"—a formalistic approach to reporting and accountability—has developed over decades within the Russian army. As such, dismissing commanders from a handful of brigades is unlikely to address this systemic issue.

Ukrainian military officials, speaking anonymously to CNN, reported that North Korean "technical advisors," dressed in Russian military uniforms, have arrived in the city of Mariupol. Additionally, Yevhen Romanov, a spokesperson for a union of military units in Kharkiv, stated that, based on intercepted communications, North Korean military personnel have been spotted in the Kharkiv region. However, this information has not been independently verified. The operational-tactical group "Kharkiv" officially denied CNN's sources' claims about North Korean soldiers in the Kharkiv region.

While our hypothesis of an expeditionary corps remains unconfirmed, it appears more plausible that small North Korean units are being integrated into the Russian Armed Forces.

In our previous sitrep, we covered the analysis of satellite images of the Khalino airfield in the Kursk region and an airfield in Krymsk in the Krasnodar region, conducted by the Frontelligence Insight team, founded by Ukrainian military analyst Tatarigami. According to the CyberBoroshno project, which reviewed Sentinel-2 satellite images, similar fortification construction began in October or earlier at numerous Russian airfields, including the Saky air base and the Belbek airfield in Crimea and the Millerovo airfield in the Rostov region.

The pro-Russian Telegram channel Voyenny Osvedomitel [Military Informant] published a photo of shelters for Gerbera UAVs, though the location of the image remains undisclosed.

Oreshnik Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile

Low resolution Sentinel-2 satellite images of the city of Dnipro, taken after the Oreshnik missile strike, have been released. The photos show no visible damage to the Yuzhmash factory, the reported target of the attack. A dark spot was identified in a residential area north of the plant, but due to the poor quality of the images, the mark could simply be a cloud shadow. Analysts are awaiting the publication of higher-resolution images, such as from Maxar, to draw definitive conclusions about the effectiveness of the strike.

BBC News Russian military analyst Pavel Aksyonov suggested that the missile’s warheads might not have been armed with explosives and were instead used as kinetic projectiles, similar to cannonballs.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR) has claimed the strike was carried out using a Kedr missile, first mentioned in 2021 as part of Russia’s development of new intercontinental ballistic missiles. According to the GUR, Oreshnik only refers to a research project associated with the Kedr missiles system. However, the Financial Times, citing a source within the Ukrainian government, reported that Russia had employed an RS-26 Rubezh missile in the attack. These conflicting accounts suggest that Ukraine may lack definitive knowledge of the weapon employed in the strike on Dnipro.

Western Assistance

Spain has announced plans to deliver an additional nine Leopard 2A4 tanks to Ukraine in the near future. The first 10 of the 19 pledged for this year were delivered in July.

According to Bild, Germany has missed the deadlines for delivering 400 MRAP vehicles it had promised to Ukraine. In April, the 2024 delivery plan was first reduced to 200 vehicles, and later 100, while the timeline was pushed back from January to May or June. The delays have been attributed to production challenges. The German manufacturer of the MRAP assembles the vehicles using kits supplied by the United States, but reportedly faced export license restrictions from Washington, as well as certification issues for the vehicle’s mine protection systems. As of today, Ukraine has received just 73 of the 400 promised MRAPs. The remaining vehicles are expected to be delivered in 2025.

MRAPs are typically not equipped with weaponry and are primarily designed for rear-line operations. However, the ongoing shortage of armored vehicles has led both sides to regularly deploy them in forward positions. This is especially true for Russian forces, which actively use Z-STS Akhmat MRAPs.

The Swiss government has imposed a ban on exports to the Polish military equipment supplier UMO for violating their end-user license agreement. An investigation revealed that around 645,000 Swiss-made rounds ended up in Ukraine in violation of Swiss law, which prohibits the supply of arms to warring countries.

According to Reuters, Donald Trump is planning to create a special envoy for the Russia-Ukraine war position in his administration, with former US Ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell expected to fill the role. Grennel is known to have supported the idea of creating "autonomous regions" in Ukraine as part of a peace agreement between Kyiv and Moscow, while opposing Ukraine's NATO membership. In a July interview with Bild, Grenell mentioned that if Trump were to win the presidency, Europe would need to take responsibility for resolving the Ukraine conflict, since it is taking place in "its backyard." Grennel also argued that NATO used to be much stronger under Trump and criticized Joe Biden for not engaging in direct talks with Putin even once in three years.

The next sitrep will be broadcast live on Wednesday, Nov. 27, at 11:00 a.m. Moscow time.