November 8, 2022

Sitrep for November 7–8 (as of 16:00)

The situation on the frontline

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine announces strikes on the villages of Blahodatne and Pravdyne on the Kherson axis, however, there is still no significant progress there.

It is stated that on the Donetsk axis, the Wagner Group soldiers managed to break into the settlement of Bilohorivka, Donetsk region, but there is no conclusive evidence of that fact yet. At the same time, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine announced attacks on Bilohorivka in the Luhansk region. In this regard, some pro-Russian sources (for example, the pro-Russian Telegram channel Voenniy Osvedomitel (“Military Informant”) confused these two settlements of the same name.

There is new evidence that a large number of Russian mobilized soldiers near Svatove were taken prisoner. They report that they made the decision to surrender after being abandoned by their commanders.

In response to an appeal from the marines of the 155th Brigade, who were sent to storm Pavlivka, the governor of Primorye, Oleg Kozhemyako, stated that he assumes that the appeal is a provocation by the Ukrainian special services, and that, according to the marines’ commanders (the very ones whom they complained about), the losses claimed in the appeal are greatly exaggerated. The Russian Ministry of Defense also stated that the losses do not exceed 1% of the combat strength killed and 7% wounded.

In contrast, Vladlen Tatarsky (real name: Maxim Fomin) reports that the 155th and 40th Marine Brigades have suffered more losses in Pavlivka than they did in both Chechen wars.

There was also a video allegedly showing military personnel of the 155th Marine Brigade refuting the information from a previously published appeal. It has already been established that these people belong to the Tiger volunteer battalion, formed back in the summer and formally included in the 155th Marine Brigade. However, only two companies from this battalion were sent to Pavlivka - one to guard the checkpoints, and the other, apparently, to stay somewhere in the rear.

Nevertheless, some conclusions were drawn from this situation because the new geolocated video recordings show that now Russian forces are advancing on Pavlivka from the east (even to the east of Vuhledar) rather than from the south.

The story of the defeated battalion of mobilized soldiers from the Voronezh region has developed further: a video appeared showing a convoy of ambulances arriving at the Voronezh railway station. In our opinion, it is more likely that they came for relatively lightly wounded soldiers because seriously wounded should be taken either to closer military hospitals or specialized clinics (for example, in Moscow or Rostov). The presence of a large number of wounded indirectly confirms that some of the mobilized were killed.

The Vazhnye Istorii ("Important Stories") media outlet investigated the amount of money allocated by the regions from the budget to compensate and provide for mobilized people. It turned out that mobilization doubled regional spending on the "special operation" in Ukraine. But either the sums, allocated by the regional authorities, are not enough to pay all the mobilized, or the number of mobilized people was less than what was required by the mobilization assignment.

Sergey Nikitin, a resident of St. Petersburg, came to the Pskov region to join the 76th Airborne Assault Division as a volunteer. But in order not to pay him promised 100 thousand rubles, he was registered as a mobilized soldier and paid 50 thousand.

By November 7, BBC News Russian and Mediazona [a Russian independent media outlet] have confirmed the deaths of 153 Russian draftees who had died during the mobilization.35 of them died before being sent to the combat area, mostly due to health problems or alcohol abuse. Russian officials confirmed the death of 14 people (but did not provide their names) who died before being sent to the front.

VChK-OGPU, a pro-Russian Telegram channel, claims that Russian soldiers were blown up by a mine, which their colleagues had previously planted near the Pogar checkpoint in the Pogarsky district of the Bryansk region on November 5. The mine was located 200 meters from the border of Russia and Ukraine. As a result, two soldiers were killed and three more were injured.

A video has been published showing a UAV operator from the 108th Mountain Assault Battalion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine dropping grenades from a drone at predicted positions of moving targets. Such skills are not acquired during training by instructions, but only as a result of great combat experience.

On the night of November 7, Ukrainian forces attacked the Donetsk Railway Administration building, the control room was most affected. We consider the railway administration a legitimate military target, since the railways ensure the supply of Russian troops. We also see that, in accordance with international humanitarian law, the necessary actions were taken - the strike was carried out at night, during the curfew, in order to avoid civilian casualties.

Russian forces continue shelling the territory of Ukraine:

  • On the morning of November 7, a residential building in Lyman was hit; information about casualties is being specified.
  • During the night of November 8, the Marhanets and Nikopol districts of the Dnipropetrovsk region were shelled with Grad MLRS and heavy artillery. No one was injured.
  • On the morning of November 8 S-300 rockets were fired on one of the villages of the Zaporizhzhia region.

Ukrainian Defense MInister Oleksiy Reznikov announced that NASAMS and Aspide air defense systems have already arrived in Ukraine. Aspide is an Italian made air defense system given to Ukraine by Spain. One battery was transferred that contains two launchers that fire 6 rockets each. Flight range is up to 25 km, altitude is up to 6 km.

Belgium has delivered a first batch of Volvo Fassi N10 trucks to Ukraine.

A video has been published with a TOW ATGM mounted in an HMMWV chassis filmed in Ukraine. All the previous recordings were made on training grounds.

BRDM-2MS (armored reconnaissance vehicles) were spotted in the Kherson region. Before the current invasion, they were decommissioned from the Russian army and were used only by the National Guard. Later, information appeared that this modification of BRDM was given to volunteer battalions.

Russian warships which were stationed in the Mediterranean Sea and since February 2 had been waiting for permission from Turkey to cross the Bosphorus now began to return to their permanent base.

Ukraine and its partners prepare a draft resolution on the list of claims for compensation for the damage inflicted by Russia with its full-scale invasion, and intend to submit the document to the UN General Assembly in November.

Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar announced that Turkey intends to propose extending the grain deal for another year. The current agreement expires on November 19th.