October 11, 2022

Sitrep for October 10-11 (as of 14:30)

Today, Russian forces continued to attack Ukraine's energy infrastructure with cruise missiles and Shahed-136 (Geran-2) loitering munitions:

— In the Vinnytsia region, the Ladyzhynska TPP was attacked with kamikaze drones (there are photos showing the consequences of the strike).

—  In the Ternopil region, cruise missiles, presumably Kh-101 air-launched cruise missiles (ALCM), were filmed flying in the sky.

— In the Kyiv region, traces of air defense work were visible in the sky.

— At the moment, explosions are known to have thundered in Odesa, Kyiv, Khmelnytskyi, Mykolaiv and Ivano-Frankivsk regions, in Rivne and Kryvyi Rih, Zaporizhia, Pavlohrad (Dnipropetrovsk region) and Lviv.

According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, air and sea-based missiles were used during today's attacks.

The repetition of yesterday's attacks came as a surprise to our team. We assumed that Russia would prefer to keep the remaining cruise missiles as an emergency reserve. In addition, yesterday's attack turned out to be insufficiently effective in terms of achieving its goals and very expensive - Russia launched missiles worth hundreds of millions of dollars.

As a result of yesterday's shelling, 19 people were killed, 105 people were injured.

Rybar, a Telegram channel managed by a pro-Russian war observer, analyzed the results of yesterday's airstrikes on energy infrastructure and came to the conclusion that not a single strike hit objects with a voltage of more than 750 kilovolts, not a single nuclear or hydroelectric power plant was damaged. In his opinion, this clearly demonstrates that the shelling was not intended to destroy the unified energy system totally, but to inflict limited damage on it. Further, Rybar concludes that if the goal was to overload the energy system of Ukraine in order to cause a prolonged panic among citizens, lower the morale and psychological state of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and thus gain victory on the battlefield, then such actions must be repeated. Thereby, he openly calls for terror and war crimes.

Videos have appeared showing the damage inflicted to the railway part of the Crimean bridge. The bridge itself does not look badly damaged, probably the traffic can be restored in a few days.

The situation on the front line

Russian forces destroyed the bridge in the village of Mylove.

Analyst Def Mon marks both settlements of Zaitseve as contested. They are located very close to each other, and it is difficult to understand which of them is referred to in reports of shellings, capture or liberation. In addition, the Russian side reports the capture of Zaitseve every month.

The news of mobilization

The presence of first mobilized soldiers has been reported in the Kherson region, but it is impossible to verify the information based on available photographs. Also, according to a resident of Khabarovsk, her mobilized husband was deployed to the front line without any sufficient training (to the Kherson direction too).

Yesterday, a video emerged showing mobilized soldiers in Svatove. They reported that they had been mobilized 11 days before in Moscow and thrown into the war zone with little or zero training. One of the mobilized said that before being sent to the front, he had only three opportunities to practice shooting.

Strange news from the Sverdlovsk Oblast. An obituary of a mobilized ex-marine emerged on social networks. A relative of his contacted the enlistment office, where his death was first confirmed to her, but then negated. Since the first POWs among those mobilized have already appeared, we assume that, most likely, there are those who were KIA, but the details are still unclear.

A more detailed video of the execution in Kupiansk emerged. Now the murderers can be seen in more detail, including a strange red bandage on the thigh of one of them.

Another has a patch, presumably Russian, on his “light moss” camo uniform. The uniform of this color is typical only for Russia (previously it was worn exclusively by the National Guard, and now it has begun to be worn by military personnel). For all the time of monitoring the current invasion, our team has never seen a photo of the Ukrainian military using such camo.

The bodies of 62 Ukrainian soldiers including prisoners of war who were held in the POW camp in Olenivka and were killed on the night of July 29-30 were returned  to Ukraine as part of an exchange arrangement.

Yesterday we reported on a Russian Su-25 jet shot down in southern Ukraine. Later, information appeared about a Su-25 jet that crashed in the Rostov region on the same day. At this point, we do not know whether these are indeed two separate incidents and if so which one was confirmed by the Telegram channel FighterBomber.

The project “Belarusian Hayun” published detailed information about the movement of the train carrying T-72 tanks which we showed in yesterday’s dispatch. These are Belarusian T-72 tanks removed from storage which are being transported to Donbas.

German Bergepanzer 2 armored recovery vehicles that were announced on October 5 to be delivered soon, have already arrived in Ukraine. In addition, Germany delivered one IRIS-T air defense system.

After the referendum and the signing of documents on the annexation of the occupied territories to Russia, we wondered what would happen to the border posts on the border with the annexed regions. It would have been logical to dismantle them since Russia can't have a state border between regions inside the country. Nevertheless, we see numerous reports that all the border checkpoints remain in place, and people wait for hours in queues at almost all the checkpoints.

Photos of General Chaiko in Syria have appeared. Previously, he commanded the Eastern Military District and, presumably, the "Vostok" (“East”) Group of Forces, which took part in the offensive on Kyiv and completely failed. As a result, Chaiko was sent to a less prestigious position.

Note that he commanded the Russian grouping in Syria from 2019 to 2020.