October 22, 2022

Sitrep for October 21-22 (as of 14:00)

The situation on the front line

The Ukrainian side reports about unsuccessful attacks by Russian forces in the direction of Terny, Bilohorivka (the Luhansk region) and Zolotarivka that in the Bakhmut-Soledar-Siversk axis.

VGTRK ("All-Russian State Television and Radio Broadcasting Company") correspondent Yevgeny Poddubny also reports attacks in this direction, but in his version, Ukrainian forces attempted to break through the Russian defense line near the village of Terny.

In recent days, Ukrainian forces have been reported to be counter-attacking in the direction from Nova Kamyanka to Beryslav along the banks of the Dnipro in the Kherson and Beryslav axes.

As early as October 19, the Russian side claimed Ukrainian losses, offering video footage that shows two Ukrainian tanks and four IFVs (destroyed or captured) and several Ukrainian KIAs as evidence. This video evidence is at odds with claims of massive casualties and total failure of the counterattack.

There is also evidence of losses on the Russian side: a destroyed Uragan MLRS , a captured transport-loader of Uragan MLRS, and a number of destroyed trucks.

All these reports of losses confirm that there is no operational pause in the Kherson direction.

Strikes on an Uragan MLRS (position not located) and on position of Russian troops were conducted with the help of a M142 HIMARS light multiple rocket launcher.

Probably, mobilized men could be there as well. According to a report of the AFU General Staff, up to 2000 mobilized soldiers could have been deployed in the Kherson region.

The New York Times outlet reports with a reference to sources in the US intelligence services that the AFU has the opportunity of achieving significant success in the South and East of Ukraine during the next six weeks. According to these sources, some RuAF units may not be able to withstand the pressure of Ukrainian troops, which can lead to the AFU gaining control over Kherson and some cities in the Donbas region.

Strikes on Ukrainian cities

  • A series of explosions in Kharkiv. 6 people were injured in the first attack, 3 were injured in the second one.
  • Five people were injured as a result of a rocket attack on Zaporizhzhia.
  • Two people were killed and one was injured as a result of a shelling of Bakhmut.

Yuriy Ignat, the Spokesperson for the Air Force Command of Ukraine, says that the German-supplied IRIS-T air defense system has already proven itself in action.

The Washington Post newspaper published an article about Ukrainian air defense. Correspondents note that the problem of Ukraine's air defense is not the inability to hit incoming missiles, but the insufficient number of air defense systems. Therefore, Ukraine has to shoot down cruise missiles from Stinger MANPADS, as well as to use aircraft to intercept cruise missiles and loitering munitions.

Germany provided Ukraine with the first TRML-4D radar system. Delivery of three more units is expected.

Mobilization updates

The announced partial mobilization should be completed next week. Some regional headquarters claim that mobilization has already been completed in their regions. We expect that in the regions where the mobilization plan is not implemented yet (for example, in the Orenburg region 60% of the planned number was mobilized) there will be raids next week on hotels, shopping centers and hostels similar to those previously seen in Moscow.

After the introduction of the "medium response level" in some regions of Russia, orders to appear in the military commissariats began to be hung up at apartment building entrances in Krasnodar. We believe that this is a preparation for the second wave of mobilization, which, we assume, will begin after the fall draft, when the draft boards will be freer.

Muscovite Igor Zhdanov was mobilized with the military specialty of "sailor-cableman" The military commissar of the Tsaritsynsky district Victor Kuznetsov changed this unneeded specialty to "rifleman" in Igor's documents.

Similarly, in St. Petersburg, Svyatoslav Khoroshev's military registration specialty was changed from "reconnaissance operator" to "rifleman," a military training course (which he did not attend) was written in, and he was denied a medical examination.

A mobilized Muscovite IT worker was killed in Ukraine. Timur Izmailov held one of the key IT positions at Raiffeisenbank and supported the MIR payment system. Instead of a proper deferment, he was mobilized on September 23 and was killed on October 7.

Verstka media outlet estimated the size of the payments Russian regional authorities pay to the mobilized and their families. The average number is 126,000 rubles.

Since October 20, Belarus has closed departure abroad for Russians fleeing the mobilization.

In Novosibirsk, Communist Party activists provided the mobilized servicemen with Chinese Baofeng walkie-talkies in boxes with stickers “I love the USSR!”.

Mediazona published an interview with the brother of Alexander Guslyakov who was mobilized from the Krasnodar region and captured on the very first day in Ukraine.  According to Alexander, the mobilized were sent to the front line virtually unarmed, not provided even with rounds.

Iranian cargo planes keep landing in Moscow.

The community of railway workers of Belarus reports that another 24 T-72A tanks have been shipped to Russia. In total, at least 94 Belarusian tanks have already been handed over and are on their way to Donbas.  In early October, 64 empty platforms had arrived in Belarus to transfer military equipment for Russia.

Yesterday we reported on the theft of fire trucks and civilian vehicles from Kherson. Apparently, ambulances are also being brought to the left bank of the Dnipro.

At the Antonivsky Bridge, civilian vehicles preparing for the crossing were hit yesterday. Journalists of the Kherson branch of Suspilne, the Public Broadcasting Company of Ukraine, identified their company van and belongings inside the vehicle.

The great-nephew of the 35th US President John F. Kennedy, O'Connor Kennedy, admitted that he had been fighting in Ukraine as a volunteer for a long time. According to him, he was deliberately hiding his real name to avoid special treatment.

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov posted a video of his sons bringing Ukrainian prisoners of war to Grozny, Chechnya. This is a violation of international humanitarian law because prisoners of war must be protected from insults and public curiosity.