October 24, 2022

Sitrep for October 22-24 (as of 14:00)

The situation on the front line

Based on the geolocated video, analyst Def Mon marked a small advance of Russian troops on the map - now the Russian line of control runs west of Makiivka (Kremins'kyi district of the Luhansk region). Earlier unsuccessful attacks were reported in this direction, this time the Russian offensive was successful.

A video of the fighting was also geolocated to the west of the settlement of Pisky (Donetsk axis), which once again proves that Pisky is under the control of pro-Russian forces.

In this axis (according to various sources, near the village of Vodyane or the village of Opytne), Semyon Pegov (aka WarGonzo) was injured, presumably having stepped on a PFM-1 mine (perhaps he was only hit by mine fragments).

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine keeps publishing incomplete information regarding attacks in the Kherson direction.

According to unconfirmed reports, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are already on the outskirts of Mylove settlement and may soon be able to liberate it.

The Ukrainian forces have published photos of captured Russian military vehicles again, this time of a T-80BVM tank with yellow railway markings. They also showed a captured Russian position with a destroyed T-62 tank.

Ukraine also suffered losses in vehicles: three damaged and one destroyed M113 APCs, a damaged YPR-765 APC that may be repairable.

Russian attacks

According to pro-Russian sources, on October 21, Russian forces attacked the Kommunar plant in Kharkiv, where Neptune anti-ship cruise missiles are produced. Reportedly the missiles were to be sent to the Motor Sich plant in Zaporizhzhia to be equipped with warheads.

Shortly after, information appeared that the SBU [the Security Service of Ukraine] had arrested Viacheslav Bohuslaev, the honorary president of the Motor Sich plant, who is now suspected of treason. In recent years, he has become notorious for his pro-Russian views.

On the night of October 22-23, Russian troops attacked the Zaporizhzhia region again with loitering munitions and S-300 missile systems. There is no information about the victims yet.

On the morning of October 23, a hospital in Bakhmut was attacked, no information about the victims is available at the moment.

The Ukrainian Minister of Energy Herman Halushchenko stated in an interview with Reuters that 30-40 percent of the national energy infrastructure was damaged as a result of Russian attacks, and the damage reached several billion dollars.

In Enerhodar, a shell hit the Alisa hotel. Earlier, there were reports that some high-ranking Russian guests were going to stay at this hotel.

Mobilization news

About 20 mobilized men who refused to go to the frontline again without training and armored support are being held in basements on "LPR" territory and threatened with criminal prosecution. It is very similar to the situation that unfolded in the summer in the Bryanka settlement in the Luhansk region when contract soldiers who refused to fight were held in a basement and psychologically pressured to go back into battle. Some spoke of beatings, but this is not sufficiently verified information.

A mobilized man from the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District complains about the training at a children’s summer camp. He says that they teach poorly - for three weeks, they repeat the same things: how to dig trenches, pull out mines, and provide first aid. According to him, they were given old radios - made in 1987 and 1963. As for new equipment - only 30 quadcopter drones bought by their region’s governor. But the camp has hot water, showers, and toilets.

Our team considers such conditions to be not the worst possible for the mobilized.

Mediazona news outlet reports of at least 41 mobilized soldiers who died during the past month. Part of these casualties refer to non-combat losses: people died in training centers, at training grounds, at military bases.

The Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu had phone calls with the Ministers of Defense of France, Great Britain and Turkey and alleged that Ukraine was planning a provocation with a “dirty bomb“ (such bombs consist of a radioactive element and explosive and impose radiation contamination on the surrounding territory after explosion).

Based on our experience of observing developments at battlefronts in Syria, our team and other experts came to the conclusion that there was no correlation between Russian claims of forthcoming provocations and real provocations conducted by one side or another.

According to the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, Iran plans to supply even more kamikaze drones to Russia.

Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal says that IRIS-T air defense systems are very effective and Ukraine needs more missiles for them.

The New York Times published an interview with a Ukrainian military pilot known by his callsign Juice about the Ukrainian army’s efforts against Iranian loitering munitions.

According to the Mayor of Berlin Franziska Ghiffey, the city has “practically exhausted” the capacity for accepting refugees.

Number of oil tanker acquisition deals conducted by unknown individuals all over the world has sharply increased over the last six months. Bloomberg experts conclude that a huge “shadow fleet” of tankers is being assembled to bypass an oil embargo soon to be imposed on Russia.

There was a day-long Internet shutdown in Kherson. According to local providers, it happened due to removal of equipment from the city by the main provider. In April, when the cable to Mykolaiv was severed, Skynet Kherson had to switch to communication channels of the Crimean provider Miranda and worked via Rostelecom in order not to leave the local population without connection.

A video has appeared showing Ukrainian servicemen building technologically sound dugouts.

Another video of Prigozhin ( Wagner group) recruiting colony prisoners, supposedly, in Ekaterinburg, was published. “Rus sidyashaya” [Russian Behind Bars] human rights organization reports that at least 500 prisoners were recruited by the Wagner group in Turkmenistan. They have passed a 10-day training and were sent to the front.

As TASS news agency’s source from security forces says, the reason for the Su-34 military aircraft crash on the 17th of October 2022 in Yeysk was birds gotten into the engine.

A Su-30 military aircraft crashed into a two-storey house on the 23rd of October in Irkutsk during a test flight. Two test pilots were killed, no residents were injured. Reasons of the crash are unknown. Communication with the crew was lost at an altitude of 9000 m and 35 minutes later the aircraft crashed, having spent its fuel after.

Fragments of a downed AGM-88 HARM anti-radar missile were found in Belgorod region.

A video of a Russian Su-25 aircraft crashing in June in Belgorod region was published. As we can see on the frame-by-frame viewing, the aircraft hit a power line and its keel was cut off.