Sitrep for Aug. 15–18, 2025 (as of 7:30 a.m. UTC+3)

Frontline Situation Update

In the Pokrovsk direction, the Armed Forces of Ukraine redeployed significant forces to contain the breakthrough near Dobropillia, as a result of which they managed to clear the villages of Zolotyi Kolodiaz, Vesele, and the outskirts of Rubizhne. In Vesele, fighters of the 93rd Separate Mechanized Brigade "Kholodnyi Yar" of the AFU engaged in fighting with the use of armored vehicles. Since Russian soldiers infiltrated on foot (in part because it is impossible to secretly concentrate tanks or infantry fighting vehicles), they are unable to resist armored vehicles. Attempts to drive enemy infantry out of residential buildings in practice lead to the destruction of all fortifications, and the settlement is essentially reduced to rubble.

In addition, the AFU liberated the village of Nykanorivka (renamed Zapovidne after 2024), which opened the road toward Bilytske and Dobropillia.

We still consider this to be a breakthrough, since the penetration of enemy infantry into the rear with the creation of a corridor for the subsequent advance of other units corresponds to the characteristics of a breakthrough. In this case, neither the length of time positions are held nor the types of means employed, whether with or without armored vehicles, matters. We believe it is important not to give in to emotions and to use the word "breakthrough" despite it may sound frightening.

Black Bird Group analyst Emil Kastehelmi, after a discussion with Michael Kofman, agreed that this is indeed a tactical breakthrough.

French researcher Clément Molen, who specializes in geolocating traces of Russian air-dropped bomb strikes, recorded an increase in the intensity of such strikes on the western flank of the Pokrovsk direction (particularly near the village of Udachne). This may indicate that the Russian army will soon attempt to intensify fighting in this sector of the frontline.

The repositioning of a portion of Ukrainian forces near Dobropillia has likely weakened other fronts. Consequently, Russian forces will be probing defenses in search of new weak points to exploit the situation.

Similar actions by the Russian Armed Forces have been undertaken recently in the Kupiansk direction in the Kharkiv region, where footage emerged of an unsuccessful attack involving two tanks and three MT-LB multi-purpose armored vehicles. As a result, the military vehicles were destroyed.

In the Novopavlivka direction in the southern Donetsk region, the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the MoD of Ukraine, in conjunction with the 5th Separate Heavy Mechanized Brigade of the AFU, expelled Russian soldiers from the village of Andriivka-Klevtsove (until 2024 known as Iskra), where, according to the video, Russian soldiers were present and which the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation declared captured. However, the Directorate and DeepState stated that the capture occurred only "on paper," while the AFU had remained in the village the entire time. Our team was divided on the issue: although in the previous sitrep we concluded that the Russians controlled this village, the majority of the team, after lengthy discussion, considered it appropriate to retrospectively classify it as a "contested area."

It is worth noting that having sources on the frontline, which some analysts emphasize as important, by no means always makes it possible to obtain complete and reliable information about the situation that would allow conclusions to be drawn about the status of a given settlement.

Typically, the presence of troops from both sides in a settlement indicates that it is contested. When soldiers from one side move about freely while a small number of soldiers from the other side remain only in separate fortifications, the situation may be described as partial control. This means that the settlement has been almost captured but not yet fully cleared. Similarly, if the opposing side's assault units begin entering a settlement held by the other side and gradually occupying houses from which they will be difficult to "smoke out," it can be described as a partial loss of control.

Due to the fact that it is impossible to organize logistics without heavy losses under conditions of a large number of enemy drones, it is important to note that the AFU in a number of cases use not only aerial but also ground-based unmanned systems for logistical purposes, with the General Staff of the AFU actively working on their implementation. Without proper logistics, it is practically impossible to hold territory.

In the Siversk direction, recent Russian mechanized attacks have been recorded, indicating an accumulation of armored vehicles there (this became possible after the shift to predominantly infantry assaults). However, more recent videos of attacks on the village of Serebrianka, for example, show Nivas and Urals more often, suggesting that the accumulated armored vehicles are running out. Although the published video includes, among other things, a display of a flag in Serebrianka, it seems premature to speak of Russian control over the village.

Peace Talks

Late in the evening of Aug. 15, talks took place between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump in Alaska. At the moment, the only available information comes from sources familiar, for example, with Trump’s phone conversation with European leaders.

It is reported that at the meeting Putin emphasized that for a sustainable settlement of the situation it is necessary to "eliminate the root causes of the conflict." It is unclear what exactly he meant (possibly NATO’s eastward expansion).

On the other hand, according to sources, Putin has allegedly agreed to security guarantees for Ukraine, including the presence of Western troops. Axios asserts that Putin also proposed considering China as a guarantor, though it is unclear what role the country would play.

The leaders of Great Britain and France have confirmed their readiness to deploy their deterrent forces and even to protect Ukraine's airspace and sea following a cessation of combat operations. It is worth noting that these countries had previously intended to create a European deterrent force but were unsuccessful in securing the participation of other nations. This new deployment could potentially involve instructors in western Ukraine, the protection of infrastructure facilities, and the dispatch of aircraft to western regions to act as "flying air defense."

When asked about imposing the promised sanctions against Russia, Trump stated that he might return to the issue in two to three weeks.

Reuters and other media outlets, citing their sources, have published a list of Putin's demands:

• A ceasefire is possible only after a comprehensive agreement is reached. It is worth noting that Ukraine had proposed agreeing to a ceasefire first before reaching a final agreement.
• A full withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, in exchange for which Russia would halt the frontline in the Kherson and the Zaporizhzhia region and return occupied parts of the Sumy and the Kharkiv region to Ukraine. It is unclear if this also refers to the bridgehead in the Kupiansk direction and not just the border bridgeheads in these regions.
• Recognition of Russian sovereignty over annexed Crimea. It is unknown whether this means recognition only by the US or also by Ukraine and all Western powers.
• A ban on Ukraine joining NATO, alongside discussions of possible alternative security guarantees.
• The official granting of special status to the Russian language in parts of or all of Ukraine.
• The right of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (Moscow Patriarchate) to operate freely in Ukraine.
• The lifting or easing of sanctions against Russia.

On Aug. 18, a meeting between President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Trump is scheduled to take place—initially in private, followed by expanded talks involving European leaders. Should Trump deem the meeting successful, a trilateral summit with Zelenskyy and Putin is expected to follow no later than Friday, Aug. 22. It remains unlikely that Ukraine will agree to cede the Donetsk and Luhansk regions within their full administrative borders, as such a concession would contravene the Ukrainian Constitution and require approval via a nationwide referendum. In the event of Ukrainian refusal, Trump may conclude that he has exhausted diplomatic avenues and subsequently withdraw from further negotiations on Ukraine. This would likely result in the continuation of hostilities into next year and beyond. Given current battlefield dynamics and the pace of Russian advances, Ukraine may face mounting pressure to either initiate additional mobilization or strategically reduce certain segments of the frontline to conserve resources. Even accounting for potential breakthroughs in Ukraine’s defensive lines, Russian forces are not expected to reach the administrative borders of the Donetsk region for at least one to two years.

Ukrainian and Russian Strikes

According to reports of the Ukrainian Air Forces, over the past weekend, the number of drones used by Russia slightly decreased, amounting to dozens rather than hundreds, as in previous weeks.

However, missile attacks also took place. In the evening of Aug. 17, in the city of Kharkiv, a missile fell into the yard of a residential building, injuring several people. In total, during the strikes in the early hours of Aug. 18 in Kharkiv, at least seven people were killed and 23 injured. Over the 24 hours from 9 a.m. on Aug. 17 in the Kharkiv region, at least five people were killed and 34 injured.

On Aug. 16, as a result of UAV strikes in the Donetsk region controlled by Ukraine, there were fatalities and injuries.

As a result of two strikes with FAB-series air-dropped bombs equipped with the Universal Gliding and Correction Module (UMPK) on the evening of Aug. 17 in the Zaporizhzhia region, a young man was killed and six more people were injured.

As a result of attacks, UAV strikes, and air-launched missiles in the Kherson region on Aug. 16 and Aug. 17, several people were injured.

According to Alexander Khinshtein, the Acting Governor of the Kursk region, in the Kursk region as a result of UAV strikes on civilian vehicles on Aug. 16 and 17, three people were killed and four more injured. The Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine and the head of Russia’s constituent Republic of Dagestan, Sergey Melikov, reported that the deputy commander of the Group of Troops "North," Lieutenant General Esedulla Abachev, was wounded during a strike on a military column on the Rylsk-Khomutovka highway.

In the Belgorod region, 16 people were injured due to multiple UAV strikes.

Over the past weekend, at least 10 civilians were killed and 66 were injured on both sides of the frontline.

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