Sitrep for Aug. 5-7, 2024 (as of 9 a.m. UTC+3)Â
Frontline Situation Update
Russian forces continue their advance on the Pokrovsk direction near the village of Zhelanne.
In the Toretsk direction, the Russian Armed Forces have advanced in the village of Niu-York and have started gradually pushing the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the area between this village and the village of Pivdenne, straightening the frontline. While it is too early to officially announce the capture of Niu-York, a video has surfaced showing a Russian flag being raised on its western outskirts.
The distance between the Russian positions in the town of Zalizne and the village of Niu-York is about 5 km [3 mi], and Russian forces are trying to advance towards the village of Nelipivka to force the AFU to abandon their positions to the southeast to avoid encirclement. The fighting for Niu-York has lasted about a month, which is relatively quick compared to other locations; for instance, the town of Krasnohorivka has yet to be fully captured despite only a few areas remaining under Ukrainian control.
Video recordings have emerged indicating that Russian forces have reached the outskirts of the town of Toretsk and, apparently, have even gained a foothold there, as reported by Ukrainian journalist Yurii Butusov. It is anticipated that future fighting will center around the three spoil tips between the towns of Toretsk and Zalizne and the village of Pivnichne. Russian forces are already positioned near two of these spoil tips.
Rybar, a prominent pro-Russian Telegram channel/analyst reports a new attempt by the AFU to land on the Tendra Spit in the Kherson region. Allegedly, 12 boats carrying AFU troops sailed toward the spit intending to land. Rybar claims that the first three were destroyed, and the remaining nine turned back. A video from the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense later emerged, detailing this landing attempt.
Ukrainian Attack on the Kursk Region
On the night of Aug. 6 Ukrainian strikes and UAV attacks on border areas of the Kursk region, including the town of Sudzha, began. As a result, according to acting governor Aleksey Smirnov, one person was killed and several others were injured. Then, early in the morning of Aug. 6, the active phase of combat operations started. To repel the attack, Russian Sukhoi Su-25 Grach (Frogfoot) attack aircraft were sent towards the border of Russia and Ukraine: a burning long haul dump truck was also captured on video showing them flying over a road. Despite the lack of an organized evacuation from the border areas, some residents left the danger zone. However, it should be noted that the above-mentioned video shows some civilian cars driving towards a combat zone, where military aircraft are flying. The cars are passing by a burning truck, which indicates the high danger of being on this road. Unfortunately, the authorities did not bother to close the roads for civilian vehicles. Later that day, a local Telegram channel published the names of the civilians killed while trying to drive to the village of Kurilovka to evacuate relatives from Sudzha. A total of five civilians were reported killed. In addition, Smirnov stated that an ambulance driver and paramedic were killed as a result of a drone attack.
Ukrainian units that entered Russian territory captured Russian soldiers, conscripts and border guards. According to some reports, there are 35 prisoners in total. Though we cannot confirm this number, it seems plausible. Footage of the interrogations of two conscripts from the 488th Motorized Rifle Regiment and a contract soldier from the 17th Border Covering Battalion, which included a unit of conscript soldiers, has been released. As expected, there was no significant reinforcement of the border after the raids by the Russian Volunteer Corps. Conscripts who cannot offer substantial resistance in the event of an attack are still sent there. The Akhmat unit was deployed to the Kursk region to strengthen border defenses. According to the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel, at least 15 fighters from the Akhmat unit were wounded in fighting, although there is no evidence of this or their presence directly at the border. At the same time, some reports say that they were positioned behind the conscripts.
Near the Russian-Ukrainian border in the Sumy region, a Russian drone detected a Ukrainian Buk TELAR, which was covering an advancing group from air attacks and directed fire onto it. Some time later, a self-propelled anti-aircraft system was destroyed by a cluster munition warhead, evidenced by the detonation of its AA missiles. Subsequently, a strike hit what was likely the system’s launch and reloading vehicle, traveling nearby. Judging by the explosion and resulting fire, it too was destroyed.
Additionally, several videos have been released showing Lancet drone strikes against Ukrainian military vehicles in the Sumy region, along with drone footage of an abandoned M1132 Stryker armored personnel carrier fitted with a mine roller, reportedly in the Kursk region. A column of Stryker APCs was also spotted near the border in the Sumy region.
On the Russian side, a Kamov Ka-52 Hokum B attack helicopter was lost, though it remains unclear whether it was shot down by a Ukrainian Buk SAM system, an anti-tank guided missile, or friendly fire from Russian air defenses. Two KAMAZ-65221-22 tractor trucks, each transporting T-62M tanks on their trailers, were also destroyed.
We assess Ukrainian losses to be more costly at this time. The destruction of a scarce air defense system is more critical than the loss of a Russian attack helicopter, of which the RuAF still has many, and other equipment. The reported destruction or capture of a Styker APC on Russian soil may also create renewed strain between Ukraine and its Western allies. Moreover, as we have previously noted, Western armored vehicles have been supplied at insufficient rates to the AFU in recent months.
The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that a substantial force participated in this attack: up to 300 military personnel supported by armored vehicles (11 tanks and 20 armored vehicles) and air defense systems. Initially, the ministry's post claiming it had repelled the attack mentioned the retreat of a "Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group." However, by the evening of Aug. 6, this paragraph had been removed.
In our view, the force size reported by the Ministry of Defense would not significantly impact operations elsewhere. However, the AFU's incursion into Russian territory may be an attempt to divert some Russian troops from the frontline, possibly from the Kharkiv region.
In the early hours of Aug. 7, the pro-Russian Rybar Telegram channel reported that the AFU had managed to gain a foothold in the border area of the Kursk region. By midday, the channel stated that fighting was ongoing and the AFU was attempting to expand its area of control.
Ukrainian sources circulated a fake video of the acting governor of the Kursk region, allegedly calling on all men in the region to urgently report to the draft office and take up arms. In reality, the original video showed Smirnov discussing the complex situation at the border.
Ukrainian and Russian Strikes
On the night of Aug. 6, a missile fell and exploded in Brovary, Kyiv region. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that two Iskander-M or KN-23 ballistic missiles were downed as a result of an "air defense battle." Sources of the Ukrainian Defense Express media outlet reported the explosion of a North Korean-made KN-23 missile in the air over the Kyiv region on July 31, with the hypothetical cause of the malfunction being the use of civilian components in North Korean missiles. There has been no evidence of the use of North Korean missiles since February.
On the morning of Aug. 6, Russian forces launched an attack, presumably using 9K720 Iskander mobile short-range ballistic missiles, on the Shevchenkivskyi district of Kharkiv. As a result of the strike, one person was killed and 12 were injured, including an eight-month-old child; residential buildings, a medical clinic and cars were also damaged. One of the likely targets was the building of the Eastern Regional Directorate of Ukraine's State Border Guard Service.
Photos have emerged showing the aftermath of a strike on an ammunition storage facility on the airfield in Morozovsk, Rostov region, on the night of Aug. 3. The images show charred missiles and air-dropped bombs, including a KAB-1500LG.
Evidence has also surfaced of the destruction of at least one Sukhoi Su-34 strike aircraft at this airfield, although on Aug. 3, the pro-Russian Voevoda veshchayet [Voevoda broadcasts] Telegram channel claimed that the aircraft remained unharmed.
A video has been published showing a Russian Sukhoi Su-24 tactical bomber using assault bombs equipped with parachutes (which slow the fall of the bombs, allowing them to be dropped from very low altitudes without risk to the bomber) against Ukrainian maritime surface drones. Although the video quality does not allow for a definitive assessment of the strike, one of the three explosions appears larger than the others, which may well indicate the destruction of a maritime surface drone.
Conscription, Mobilization and Contract Military Service
On August 6, Mediazona, an independent Russian media outlet, released a new summary of Russian war losses. In the past two weeks, 2,100 new names have been added to the total list of 61,000 killed in the war. Though the release date had originally been Aug. 2, it was delayed and the summary came out in a shortened format as a result of an avalanche of obituaries which did not allow the journalists and volunteers to process them on time.
On May 31, the Ministry of Justice designated the Put Domoy [Way Home] movement of mobilized soldiers’ families and its activist Maria Andreeva as "foreign agents." On Aug. 5, Andreeva wrote that because of her "foreign agent" status she had lost her job at the Moscow Health Department's Scientific and Practical Center for Children's Psychoneurology. She also announced her decision to give up the public struggle to bring mobilized soldiers back home from the frontline.
In Nevinnomyssk, an 8th-grader and a 9th-grader have been detained on suspicion of setting fire to four mobile network base stations in Stavropol. A criminal case has been initiated for an act of terror.
On May 6 in Saint Petersburg, two students, Yegor Lauskis and Artemiy Doronin, were sentenced to real terms of imprisonment for attempting to set fire to a relay cabinet. Lauskis was sentenced to two years and Doronin to four years under the charge of a terrorist attack committed in a group. It is worth noting that the damage from their actions amounted to 758 rubles [$8.86].
Grigory Skvortsov, a Perm photographer accused of treason, stated that the reason for his persecution was the publicly available book "Soviet 'Secret Bunkers': Urban Special Fortification of the 1930s-1960s" by historians Dmitry Yurkov and Sergey Polytaev and illustrator Anastasia Zotova, which he passed on to an American journalist.
Russian authorities have recommended that ISPs slow down YouTube to 128 kbps. For those who have not set up bypassing blocks we will be duplicating streams on our Telegram channel starting Aug. 7. Today's stream will be broadcast at the usual time—6 p.m. Moscow time.