Sitrep for July 26-29, 2024 (as of 9 a.m. UTC+3)

Frontline Situation Update

Russian forces continue to advance in the Ocheretyne direction along the railway from the village of Prohres, expanding the salient towards the village of Zhelanne and progressing in the village of Vesele. This advance is aided by the fact that the railway runs along high ground.

Additionally, the Russian Armed Forces continue to progress in Krasnohorivka, and the Russian Ministry of Defense may report its capture as early as this week. Although the ministry sometimes makes such announcements well before the actual capture, there have also frequently been post-factum declarations. For instance, the capture of Prohres and Yevhenivka was officially reported only on July 28.

Comparing the RuAF-controlled area on the map from April to the end of July, it becomes clear that it took Russian forces over three and a half months to capture the relatively small Krasnohorivka. Over the past ten months, they have managed to capture Avdiivka, form the Ocheretyne salient, and significantly expand their flanks in this area.

This still is a relatively small section in the context of the entire frontline. However, assessing the effectiveness of this advance relative to vehicle and personnel losses, it is clear that Russia will not be able to reach the administrative borders of the formally annexed regions of Ukraine in the near future. To fully capture the Donetsk region, the RuAF need to take two major cities, Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Even at the current pace, it does not seem possible to reach and begin attacking them this year. Meanwhile, the Luhansk region is almost entirely captured, being the only one of the four regions claimed by Russia under Russian control.

In the south of the Donetsk region, where the villages of Novomykhailivka and Kostiantynivka are located, the 79th Airborne Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine continues to repel Russian attacks. They have published a video of attempted assaults using columns of armored vehicles. It is worth noting that such attacks include several waves, each consisting of an assault group accompanied by armored vehicles. At the same time, in reports, the entire number of vehicles used in an attack over a period of time is usually added up, which can create the impression that the Russian Armed Forces are deploying massive columns of almost hundreds of vehicles in a single assault.

Ukrainian and Russian Strikes

Over the past few days, Ukrainian drones have again attacked Russian regions. On the night of July 28, an oil depot was hit in the Kursk region, resulting in three fuel tanks catching fire, as confirmed by local authorities. On July 27, Ukrainian UAVs targeted the Dyagilevo airfield in the Ryazan region. Their flight and the sound of an explosion were recorded, however, there is no data on the aftermath of the strike yet.

The Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (GUR) reported on sabotage operations at Russian airfields. A Mil Mi-28 and a Kamov Ka-226 helicopters burned at the Mil National Helicopter Plant in Tomilino, Moscow region. A third aircraft, a Mil Mi-8 helicopter, burned at the Kryazh military airfield in Samara. Details of the operations are not reported. Available videos show a fire geolocated to Tomilino and another fire filmed presumably next to the silhouette of a helicopter, but it is impossible to tell exactly what is burning. A satellite image published by the GUR shows a "probably destroyed helicopter."

A strike was carried out against the Saky air base in Crimea in the early hours of July 26, according to the Dos’ye Shpiona [Spy Dossier] Telegram channel. The attack resulted in the destruction of two fighter jets and Nebo ground surveillance radars, with two military personnel killed. The CyberBoroshno project released satellite images showing burn marks on the tarmac resembling a carbonized fighter jet. However, we agree with other analysts that the quality of the images is insufficient to draw definitive conclusions about the aftermath of the strike.

Reuters has published an article on a new type of UAV emerging in Russia’s arsenal. These drones, named Gerberas, are visually almost identical to Shahed-136 (Geran-2) loitering munitions. While the serial number of Shahed drones typically begins with the Cyrillic letter “Ы,” serial numbers on Gerberas appear to be starting with “Ыы.” According to the GUR, these drones are also produced in the Alabuga Special Economic Zone and come in three different variants: radar reconnaissance, loitering munitions and decoys. We had previously encountered mentions of cheap drones made of plastic or plywood, equipped with SIM cards and cameras, and used to locate Ukrainian air defense positions. Gerberas can be deployed in groups and can fly alongside Shaheds to divert air defense fire on strike missions. They reportedly cost around $10,000 to produce, or what is believed to be a third of the price of a Shahed loitering munition. However, this price still seems excessively expensive for a drone primarily intended to detect and distract enemy air defenses.

Alabuga Polytech College has been actively purchasing ads on blogs often connected to the fields of engineering and IT. These posts often promote a promising new world of drone development. However, it is likely that many of these bloggers are unaware of the college's involvement in the war. Students are threatened with expulsion or heavy penalties to force them into assembling drones that are used in regular attacks on Ukrainian cities.

In advertisements targeting ninth-grade students, Alabuga Polytech College invites teenagers to assemble UAVs showing a drone with the serial number Ыы001. The college offers admission with low scores in the ninth-grade Basic State Examination (OGE), free education and a salary of 70,000 rubles [$810] for work in production. It is worth noting, that on April 2, 2024, Ukrainian drones attacked the dormitory next to the college's workshops.

A video has been published showing the firing of 2A28 Grom guns from BMP-1s at a training range, mounted on improvised carriages that resemble the mortar carriage of the 2B9 Vasilek gun-mortar and look structurally similar. We have already seen footage of such improvised towed guns taken near the frontline, but have not yet encountered evidence of their use. We question the practicality of using such weapons: the effective firing range of this gun is 1.5 km [0.9 mi], and the maximum range is less than 4.5 km [2.8 mi]—a distance any drone can easily cover. It is also worth noting that a more compact 73 mm weapon already exists—the SPG-9 recoilless gun.

In Mali, during battles on July 25 and 26, a column of Wagner Group mercenaries and government troops fell into an ambush by Tuareg rebels. The Wagnerites suffered the heaviest losses of their "colonial" wars since the battle near Khsham, Syria, in 2018. The Sabotage Assault Reconnaissance Group Rusich [an openly neo-Nazi Russian volunteer unit] reports 80 mercenaries killed and 15 captured, while the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel reports 33 killed and 18 wounded.

Among the deceased is the administrator of the Grey Zone Telegram channel. One of his older posts about Mali, where he compared combat operations to the game Counter-Strike, vividly demonstrates the attitude of most Wagner Group mercenaries. This statement characterizes them not as professionals but as war junkies—people obsessed with war, with the opportunity to engage in battles, shoot and kill.

Some sources report that the Wagner Group commander Anton "Lotus" Yelizarov was also killed, while other reports suggest he was captured and later exchanged.

A Russian Aerospace Forces helicopter pilot with the call sign "Voevoda" writes that the commander of a Mil Mi-8 helicopter, who was covering the convoy from the air, was killed by heavy machine gun fire, while the co-pilot managed to steer and land the helicopter in a safe location. A second helicopter, a Mil Mi-24, crashed, but the crew survived.

The Wagner Group has been present in Mali since 2021, invited by the junta that seized power the previous year. The UN along with investigative journalists have published several reports on the crimes committed by the Russian mercenaries.

Conscription, Mobilization and Contract Military Service

Last week, Russia's Ministry of Defense released a report featuring the commander of a BMP-3, known by the call sign "Dobry," who spoke about the efficient organization of the supply system.

However, the Astra Telegram channel published a video of Russian soldiers from the 394th Motorized Rifle Regiment recorded on June 22, 2024. In the video, they describe how they spent a month without supplies in the village of Staromaiorske on the Zaporizhzhia axis, surviving by stealing grain intended for chicken feed from barns.

Royal Fizouli oglu Abbas, an Azerbaijani who obtained Russian citizenship five years ago and resided in Mordovia [Russia’s constituent republic], had his Russian passport confiscated in July 2024. This action was taken because he refused to register for military service and allegedly encouraged others to do the same. As a result, he now faces deportation.

The Ukrainian Suspilne media outlet obtained information on a criminal case initiated by the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation against the command of the 6th Motorized Rifle Division, a new division formed mainly from mobilized soldiers. In the spring of 2023, the servicemen of this unit complained about service conditions: heavy losses, lack or malfunction of equipment, insufficient gear, problems with evacuating the wounded from the battlefield—in short, the command treated them as cannon fodder. Division commander Marat Ospanov did not want this information to become public, so he ordered the arrest and detention of servicemen who "violated military discipline and refused to follow the orders."

The case involves 19 victims who were held at various times in the basements of several houses in the occupied town of Popasna, Luhansk region, "without toilets, without conditions for maintaining hygiene, without sleeping mats, and limited water and food," beaten and tortured. Ospanov deemed eight of them "not subject to correction" and appointed a group of subordinates to kill them. In June, during a routine inspection by the Ministry of Defense, the detainees were temporarily released from custody, and one of them was sent to the frontline, where he was later wounded. The remaining seven were returned to the basement after the inspection ended, and on July 4, they were taken to the village of Bakhmutske, Donetsk region, led into the basement of a house, and "no less than five F-1 hand anti-personnel defensive grenades" were thrown in. According to the investigation, this was an attempt by the division's command to cover up the traces of torture; afterward, the bodies of the killed soldiers were burned along with the vehicle used to transport them to Bakhmutske. Another 11 detainees managed to escape from the basements in early September 2023 when military prosecutors began an investigation and arrested the division's command.

The above is a typical example of Russian unit commanders’ attitude to their subordinates. No blocking units as they are depicted in films about the Great Patriotic War are possible in the current conflict, since on the frontline such units would come under artillery and drone attacks. However, when soldiers flee from the forward positions and find themselves in the rear, they fall victim to battering and torture and sometimes are even killed.

A search for nine ex-convicts who have escaped from a training ground is underway in the Belgorod region. As follows from an all-points bulletin issued by the police, they have been convicted for murder, grievous bodily harm, kidnapping and other serious crimes.

According to the Astra Telegram channel, Yevgeny Zarubin, a soldier from the Storm unit of the 138th Motorized Rifle Brigade has deserted and has been on the wanted list since July 28. He used to train and lead into assaults convicts and mobilized soldiers who had breached discipline. He gained attention after posting an emotional video about fighting near the town of Vovchansk.