Sitrep for Dec. 9-11, 2024 (as of 9:30 a.m. UTC+3)

Frontline Situation Update

At the Vremivka salient and in the Sukhi Yaly River valley, no changes have occurred in recent days. However, the Russian Armed Forces made slight advances in the northern part of the Kurakhove direction, near the villages of Sontsivka and Voznesenka.

In the Pokrovsk direction, more significant advancements have been observed: Russian forces have notably expanded the salient near the village of Zhovte and straightened the frontline south of the village of Dachenske. The north-westward expansion of the salient could indicate either an effort to secure the flanks or the beginning of an advance along the Solona River toward the village of Uspenivka, potentially aiming to approach Pokrovsk from the southwest, near the village of Udachne. On this section of the front, the RuAF have approached the administrative border of the Donetsk region, with only about 10 km [6 mi] remaining. We believe that reaching the border is one of the goals of the Russian command.

In the Kursk direction, Russian forces managed to secure the village of Plekhovo in the southeastern part of the bridgehead. According to DeepState, they also crossed the state border and occupied a small area in the Sumy region, northeast of the village of Oleksandriya. However, the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine denies this claim. As we have mentioned repeatedly, the area near the border is contested. In such conditions, temporarily occupying small territories or deserted settlements for publicity is relatively easy, but it does not equate to a full-fledged capture.

On the Toretsk, Kupiansk and Chasiv Yar directions, no changes have been observed. Many researchers note a slowdown in combat operations along most of the frontline: the pace of offensives has decreased compared to previous record levels.

Ukrainian and Russian Strikes

On Dec. 10, Ukrainian forces struck an ammunition storage facility in the town of Yenakiieve in the Donetsk region (northeast of Donetsk, near the city of Horlivka). This is confirmed by footage showing secondary detonations. Occupation authorities even announced the evacuation of civilians in a nearby area. There is currently no information on the aftermath of the strike.

Details of the Ukrainian special operation in the Kerch Strait have emerged. Its goal was not an attack on the Crimean Bridge or a "probing" of its defenses, but rather luring out Russian aircraft and boats for subsequent attacks using heavy machine guns mounted on Sea Baby unmanned surface vessels. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) released footage of the attack, stating that the machine guns are equipped with automatic targeting and tracking systems. The quality of the video does not allow for a reliable assessment of whether Russian equipment was hit. However, according to SBU data obtained through intercepted communications, helicopters sustained significant damage, and there were injuries among their crews. Independent confirmation of this information is not yet possible.

Previously, we observed that air-to-air missiles had been mounted on unmanned surface vessels, but there has been no confirmation of their use so far.

On Nov. 29, Ukrainian forces struck an S-400 air defense system near Simferopol. This was confirmed by British intelligence, which released satellite images showing two large craters where the systems were positioned and at least five emergency vehicles nearby. This was the second successful strike against Russian S-400 systems in November, the first having occurred on Nov. 23 in the Kursk region.

On Dec. 10, the RuAF launched a strike, reportedly using an Iskander-M short-range ballistic missile, targeting a private clinic in the city of Zaporizhzhia. By midday on Dec. 11, 8 fatalities and 22 injuries were reported, including a 5-year-old child. Later that day, the death toll rose to 9 as another victim succumbed to injuries in the hospital. The search and rescue operation is ongoing, with people possibly still trapped under the rubble. Office spaces, the private clinic and a coffee shop were significantly damaged, while nearby buildings were also affected.

We suspect that this is yet another instance of flawed Russian intelligence. In Soviet times, the targeted buildings housed the Zaporizhzhia Gamma Semiconductor Plant. The facility manufactured electronic components for the space, aviation and nuclear industries. Following Ukraine’s independence in 1991, the plant was declared bankrupt and fell into disrepair, with its premises later repurposed as commercial real estate.

The Russian military continues to innovate in its efforts to counter Ukrainian drones.

First, Russian engineering units have started installing anti-drone netting along roads, creating protected corridors further reinforced with electronic warfare systems. The effectiveness of these measures remains hard to determine.

Second, Ukrainian military expert Serhii "Flash" Beskrestnov reports that Russian forces have begun deploying "air danger traffic lights" on certain roads to signal the presence of nearby enemy drones. However, the accuracy of these detectors, including their susceptibility to false positives or missed threats, remains unverified.

Finally, Russian soldiers have started modifying their 5.45mm AK-74 tracer rounds, considered less useful in combat, to target UAVs. The modifications involve replacing the factory bullets with steel ball bearings or lead hunting shot, securing the makeshift projectiles in heat-shrink tubing.

On Dec. 9, Friedrich Merz, the leader of the German opposition CDU/CSU bloc and main candidate to be next chancellor, arrived in Kyiv and met with Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He stated that he supports the transfer of Taurus KEPD 350 cruise missiles to Ukraine but emphasized that this issue requires coordination with the US and European allies. In his opinion, the current restrictions force Ukraine to fight "with one hand behind its back," and therefore, they need to be lifted.

War in Syria

There are still no signs of the evacuation of Russian military bases in northwestern Syria. Satellite images from Maxar and Planet Labs dated Dec. 9 show that Russian ships are located 8–12 km [6 mi] from the port of Tartus, beyond the range of mortars and artillery.

According to Dara Massicot, senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the number of ships near the port of Tartus and aircraft at the Khmeimim airbase is currently significantly less than necessary for evacuation. We still believe that while the future of the bases remains uncertain, Russian forces may gradually remove equipment, but a rapid withdrawal should not be expected.