Sitrep for March 21-24, 2025 (as of 9 a.m. UTC+3)
Frontline Situation Update
The Wall Street Journal published a report on the withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the Kursk region, featuring comments from Ukrainian soldiers.
According to them, the situation in some areas was catastrophic, and the retreat was carried out chaotically. They specifically mentioned that a breakthrough by Russian soldiers through a gas pipeline conduit caused panic—some troops allegedly fled, while certain commanders ordered a retreat without waiting for official orders from senior officers.
First and foremost, it should be noted that the organization of a retreat directly depends on the experience of the troops. A well-coordinated unit is far more capable of executing an orderly withdrawal, whereas a newly formed one may scatter in fear of an imagined encirclement. Since our overall assessment is based on all available data, we still believe that the withdrawal from the bridgehead was conducted in a fairly orderly manner. In theory, it could have been organized better—starting earlier, for example, might have reduced losses in both equipment and personnel. It remains difficult to gauge how recent changes in Ukraine's military command have affected the previously widespread practice of holding positions for as long as possible, with the Kurakhove pocket and the town of Avdiivka being prime examples.
According to preliminary estimates, Russian and Ukrainian losses in armored vehicles may be roughly equal, but for Ukraine, the loss of a large number of armored vehicles is more critical than for Russia. The Frontelligence Insight team, founded by Ukrainian military analyst Tatarigami, covered this and much more in their analysis of the Kursk operation, which we find fairly objective.
The frontline on the remaining part of the bridgehead has not changed in recent days.
Fighting continues in the Belgorod region near the villages of Demidovka, Grafovka and Repyakhovka in the Krasnoyaruzhsky district. Some sources claimed control of Demidovka, but fighting appears to be ongoing, and the village remains in a contested area. Pro-Russian military correspondent Romanov reported that the AFU holds the village, showing footage of Ukrainian troops present there, while the Dva Mayora [Two Majors] pro-Russian Telegram channel stated that the village has continued to change hands during the fighting.
Such raid actions in the border area of the Belgorod region, in our opinion, are intended to distract the Russian Armed Forces and tie down Russian units present in the Kursk region, preventing their redeployment to other directions.
Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces have published a video showing a HIMARS attack on a staging base of the Russian Aerospace Forces in the Belgorod region, where, as reports indicate, two Mil Mi-8 helicopters and two Kamov Ka-52 attack helicopters were stationed. Judging by the footage, only one helicopter was directly hit; in other cases, M30A2 GMLRS rockets exploded nearby—likely causing damage to the aircraft with their pre-formed tungsten fragments. At the same time, Ukrainian special forces assert that all four helicopters were destroyed. Additionally, pro-Russian milblogger Kirill Fyodorov claimed that the crews had survived.
In the Kupiansk direction, in the Kharkiv region, the RuAF continue to establish small bridgeheads on the western bank of the Oskil River. This time they gained a foothold near the village of Kamianka. Furthermore, they are attempting to expand their bridgehead near the village of Topoli, with the aim of eventually linking all of the settlements to form a larger bridgehead. All those actions are necessary for the upcoming offensive on the town of Kupiansk, which we expect to begin only in a few months.
In the Lyman direction, Russian forces made slight advances near the villages of Ivanivka and Yampolivka in the Luhansk region, expanding their area of control.
Footage has been published showing another "road of death" in the Pokrovsk direction. The large number of destroyed vehicles is hindering Russian forces from establishing logistics in the area and sustaining their advance.
The Belgorod-based Pepel [Ashes] Telegram channel has published footage from a house in the village of Repyakhovka, Belgorod region, which, according to local residents, was looted by Russian soldiers. They claim that at least 20 homes were ransacked. Regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov has officially confirmed these claims. Fear for their property is a key reason why some civilians flatly refuse to leave the frontline zone despite the danger. Although authorities have restricted entry to Repyakhovka, some locals still return on their own—one of them was wounded in an attack as a result.
In the Oboyansky district of the Kursk region, a man collecting scrap metal picked up a cluster munition element from a HIMARS MLRS (M77 DPICM), which detonated in his hands. As a result, the man was killed. These submunitions are often referred to as "little bells" due to their appearance. It is worth noting that the fact that some submunitions fail to self-destruct and effectively mine the areas where they land led to the creation of the Convention on Cluster Munitions.
Russian pro-war rapper Akim Apachev (author of the song Summer and Crossbows about the Wagner Group) traveled to the town of Sudzha despite the authorities not yet allowing entry into the city. While there, he spray-painted graffiti on building walls, which included obscene language. In response to local residents' outrage, Alexander Khinshtein, the Acting Governor of the Kursk region, promised to contact the Interior Ministry and the Prosecutor's Office. Following this, Apachev recorded a video with what he called an "apology"—though in reality, he mostly attempted to justify his actions.
Ukrainian and Russian Strikes
After reports of negotiations and a possible truce emerged, the number of airstrikes and other attacks on both sides of the frontline increased.
In the early hours of March 23, Russia carried out a massive airstrike on Ukrainian territory, including Kyiv and the Kyiv region. As a result of a strike on a multi-story residential building, a man and his five-year-old daughter, who had fled the war from the town of Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia region, were killed.
As a result of a UAV strike on the city of Zaporizhzhia on the evening of March 21, three family members were killed: a mother, a father and their youngest daughter. The eldest daughter survived because she was not at home at the time of the attack.
On the evening of March 21, a drone strike on a residential building in Rostov-on-Don injured two people.
It is worth noting that the Russian side uses significantly more drones in aerial attacks, resulting in a much greater scale of destruction and a significantly higher number of casualties and injuries on the Ukrainian side.
On March 19, the AFU drones struck an oil depot in Stanitsa Kavkazskaya, Krasnodar region. The fire continues to this day.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated that Russia had the right to strike Ukrainian energy facilities in response to this attack and the alleged attack on the Sudzha gas metering station in the Kursk region on March 21, which according to a recent video is still on fire.
Upcoming Peace Talks
On March 23, a meeting between US and Ukrainian delegations took place in Riyadh. The details of the talks have not yet been disclosed. According to the head of the Ukrainian delegation, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, energy was one of the topics discussed.
On March 24, a meeting was held between US and Russian delegations. It became known today that the Ukrainian delegation would hold another round of talks with the American side.
Donald Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff said in an interview with Tucker Carlson that the US seeks to extend the moratorium on "naval strikes."
In our view, the moratorium on strikes against energy infrastructure has not improved the situation for civilians: attacks on residential areas continue, while civilians continue to be killed. We believe that a naval moratorium will be just as ineffective. A truly effective measure would be a ban on aerial strikes on any targets in populated areas.
Ukrainian military expert Serhii "Flash" Beskrestnov published photographs of a Russian radio-technical reconnaissance UAV. These drones are capable of detecting signals from ground surveillance radars (including counter-battery systems), air defense assets, and even Starlink terminals beneath them. He plans to release a detailed report in May. We wrote about the importance of developing early-warning drones as far back as last year.
The Oko Gora [Eye of Horus] and CyberBoroshno projects, using satellite imagery, assessed the damage at the Engels air base in Saratov region following the Ukrainian strike on March 20. Approximately 60 percent of the warehouses appear to be destroyed, slightly more than 10 percent damaged, and the remaining 25 percent of the warehouses are unscathed.
The Tochny [Precise] media outlet analyzing satellite images identified transport containers near the hangars and determined that the warehouse held Kh-101 missiles stored in specialized shipping containers. The destroyed building was presumably used for programming the missiles, installing fuses, and other preparatory work. Open-air ammunition storage sites were also obliterated. In analyzing Russian attacks, we have observed that scarce munitions like missiles are stockpiled before being used in large strikes.
Although this is not the only airfield where Kh-101 missiles are kept, it is likely that the strike wiped out a significant portion of the currently available reserve. These missiles inflict immense damage and often kill civilians—as seen in the strike on the Okhmatdyt hospital in Kyiv on July 8, 2024. Thus, the destruction of the warehouses at the Engels air base may have done more to save civilian lives than Trump’s moratorium on strikes against energy facilities.
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