Sitrep for November 3-4 (as of 14:00)

The situation on the frontline

Due to the muddy season, there are no significant changes on the frontline, but both sides are engaged in heavy fighting. However, the Ukrainian side has some positional successes. The Armed Forces of Ukraine raised the Ukrainian flag over the village of Mala Seydemynukha (southwest of Davydiv Brid in the Beryslav district, 80 km from Kherson).

After the statement by Kyrylo Stremousov, the deputy head of the pro-Russian Kherson Military-Civilian Administration, about the withdrawal of Russian troops from the right bank, a lot of reports appeared in pro-Russian sources explaining the necessity of this step.

The pro-Russian Telegram channel “Dva mayora” (“Two Majors”) reported about signs of preparations for the withdrawal of Russian forces: they blow up and sink all the vessels, undermine communication towers, take out the civilian population (60,000 people), monuments and other cultural values, and mine objects of possible deployment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

They also post satellite images of the deserted Chornobaivka.

Inability to effectively supply the right-bank grouping of the RF Armed Forces and conduct offensive operations is mentioned among the reasons for the withdrawal of troops from the right bank. Russian soldiers are extremely exhausted after 8 months of continuous fighting, and it is very difficult to hold the line of defense in the field in winter.

The authors of the pro-Russian Telegram channel “Trinadtsatyi” (“The Thirteenth”) spoke in the same vein. They also reported that several lines of defense had already been built in the direction of the Crimea.

There are a lot of photos showing civilian river vessels reportedly damaged by Russian servicemen who try to disable all the vessels that cannot be taken out and even take outboard motors from the residents.

Communication towers are blown up in Ivanivka, Beryslav and, presumably, Tokarivka.

We do not rule out that the towers were cut down for scrap metal or were accidentally damaged, as the strikes targeted other nearby objects, since a communication tower in Sieverodonetsk, Luhansk region, was also destroyed, probably with HIMARS MLRS rockets.

In Kherson, some checkpoints usually manned by Russian military personnel are empty, local residents applaud this fact.

According to Advisor to the Ukrainian Presidential Office Oleksiy Arestovych, the Ukrainian army has exhausted its offensive potential for operations such as the Kharkiv offensive. Accumulating resources will take time.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine repelled Russian attacks in the area of Verkhnokamyanske, Spirne, Makiivka, Nevske, and Bilohorivka.

Shelling continues along the entire frontline, but in the Kherson direction, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine does not indicate specific locations of shelling.

The Wagner group continues to unsuccessfully try to break through in the direction of Bakhmut.

In the Vuhledar direction, Pavlivka is also kept under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

On the morning of November 3rd, explosions were reported in the occupied Melitopol near the airfield and, presumably, at the location of the mobilized troops. Later it became known that the blow fell on the “Refma” factory, where, it is said, was one of the headquarters of the RF Armed Forces. The mayor of Melitopol says that the top three floors of the building where the explosion occurred are occupied by the local office of the Russian FSB.

On the night of November 3rd, there were new strikes in the area of the Antonivsky bridge, there are no reports of the consequences yet.

Also on November 3rd, the administration building in the town of Hola Prystan in the Kherson region was hit, the casualties are still unknown.

The village of Oktyabrsky in the Belgorod region came under fire.

Russian forces continue shelling the territory of Ukraine:

• On the night of November 3rd, in the Dnipropetrovsk region was hit from Grad MLRS and heavy artillery, as well as loitering munitions. In Kryvyi Rih, energy infrastructure facilities and water supply systems were seriously damaged.

• On the night of November 4, the town of Bila Tserkva, Kyiv region was attacked with loitering munitions.
• On the night of November 4, in the Nikopol district of the Dnipropetrovsk region, the Ukrainian air defense downed eight loitering munitions. The Nikopol, Myrove, Chervonohrihorivka, and Marhanets communities were hit with Grad MRLS and heavy artillery. The number of victims remains unknown.

The use of Russian loitering munitions, such as ZALA Lancet, is becoming more prominent. For example, strikes on M109, FH70, and M777 howitzers were documented. Additionally, there is a report that Russian forces used Krasnopol guided artillery shells.

Mobilization updates

Vladimir Putin ordered a one-time payment of 195,000 rubles [$3,150] for mobilized and contract servicemen. Note that Putin's decree concerns a one-time payment and not a monthly salary, which is likely to be lower.

The governor of the Orel region Andrey Klychkov explained why the region refused to pay allowances to the mobilized and their families. From his standpoint, these payments are meaningless, since after servicemen are deployed to the combat zone, they cannot buy anything with this money, nor can their relatives bring them anything.

Verstka media outlet reports, referring to its sources, that preparations for the second wave of mobilization are underway, despite public announcements of its completion. Specifically, the government is modernizing military commissariats [enlistment offices], and the military commissariats are working to revise the files of those liable to military service.

Mozhem Obyasnit [We Can Explain] Telegram channel is aware of three cases of draft notices with call-up dates in 2023.

We were wrong to assume that General Lapin would retain command of the Central Military District.  Major General Alexander Linkov was appointed Acting Commander of the Central Military District, prior to that he had been the head of the organizational and mobilization department of the Central District.  Note that General Mordvichev is the commander of the Group of Troops "Center".

The fundraiser for acquiring Spartan tracked armored personnel carriers announced on November 2 by Serhiy Prytula was concluded ahead of schedule.  In a day and a half, more funds were collected than intended, and 236 million hryvnias will be enough to buy not initially planned 50, but 60 vehicles.

The President and Minister of Defense of Greece will visit Ukraine and hand over the BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicles which are very much needed on the frontline.

The Bulgarian Parliament supported the supply of heavy weapons to Ukraine. However, according to the country’s Minister of Defense, shipments will begin only when replacement is received.

Switzerland once again denied Germany the right to re-export ammunition for Gepard anti-aircraft guns to Ukraine. On the other hand, Switzerland will aid Ukraine with 100 million Swiss francs for the urgent reconstruction of energy infrastructure.

Another prisoner exchange was conducted, this time according to the "107 to 107" arrangement.  Most of those who returned to the Ukrainian side are the defenders of Azovstal plant in Mariupol.

There was an update on the results of the attack on Russian ships in the Sevastopol Bay.  According to insider information, only the seagoing minesweeper Ivan Golubets was significantly damaged.

In Sevastopol, the court declared dead 17 sailors who went missing in the aftermath of the cruiser Moskva sinking in April. The exact number of those who died on the ship had not been publicly announced.