Sitrep for Sept. 30-Oct. 2, 2024 (as of 8 a.m. UTC+3)Â
Frontline Situation Update
The key development of the past few days has been the capture of Vuhledar by the Russian Armed Force, confirmed by videos of soldiers freely moving around the town. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have likely started leaving Vuhledar in recent days, as evidenced by the significant decrease in videos of fighting within the city limits. In addition, pro-Russian Telegram channels have published videos of UAVs dropping munitions on retreating Ukrainian soldiers. Moreover, the leadership of the Ukrainian group of forces fighting in this direction officially announced the withdrawal of the AFU from Vuhledar.
In addition, Russian troops advanced from the village of Vodiane to the village of Bohoiavlenka and will probably advance further north. The speed of their advance toward the villages of Trudove and Uspenivka will depend on the strength and density of Ukrainian fortifications.
After the capture of Vuhledar, a Russian Aerospace Forces helicopter pilot Aleksey Zemtsov with the call sign "Voevoda" published posts in which, among other things, he blamed General Colonel Rustam Muradov for the heavy losses among Russian marines during the numerous unsuccessful assaults on Vuhledar.
In the Pokrovsk direction, the village of Tsukuryne remains in a dangerous position. Most likely, it will be captured in the near future. There also remains a threat to two other towns: Selydove, which Russian troops are bypassing from the north and south, and Toretsk, where fighting is taking place directly in the town center.
A video filmed in Toretsk has been published showing Ukrainian soldiers destroying a multi-story building. They are seen arriving in armored vehicles, firing at the windows with machine guns, carrying bags inside, apparently containing explosives or mines, and then blowing up the entire building after driving away to a safe distance. No enemy soldiers can be seen in the video, but this is far from the first time that buildings used by the enemy as defensive positions have been blown up. Both sides use this tactic in urban warfare.
A video appeared, reportedly from the Kursk region, showing a destroyed Bradley IFV marked with a triangle tactical marking. Since this marking is used on Ukrainian military vehicles operating in this area, and Bradley IFVs are used by the 47th Mechanized Brigade of the AFU, many speculated that this brigade had been deployed to the Kursk region. However, it is also possible that the Bradley IFVs could have been transferred to newly formed brigades, numbered 150 and above.
After Ukrainian forces liberated the aggregate plant in Vovchansk, Kharkiv region, about two weeks ago (the footage of the operation was released by the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine), the Russian Aerospace Forces began striking it, further confirming the absence of Russian troops on the site.
A few days ago, the RuAF launched a new attempt to attack the plant. It is unclear why, but Russian forces may see strategic importance in securing positions near the Vovcha River.
Ukrainian footage from the aftermath of the assault shows a large number of Russian soldiers' bodies. It was reported that over 100 infantrymen, supported by 17 MT-LB multi-purpose armored vehicles and 3 tanks, participated in the assault. The report mentions that most of the equipment was destroyed and many soldiers were killed. While the footage does not show the bodies of 100 soldiers, it is possible not all were captured on camera. Although we cannot definitively confirm the Russian losses, this assault evidently failed.
A video has also emerged showing the execution of Ukrainian prisoners of war in the Pokrovsk direction, recorded by a Ukrainian drone equipped with a thermal camera. In the footage, several Russian soldiers lead 10 soldiers from a forest line and order them to form a line, indicating that they are indeed POWs. The Russian soldiers standing in front of the row then open fire on the Ukrainian soldiers, later finishing off any survivors. Several more bodies, presumably Ukrainian soldiers, can be seen among the trees. The Ukrainian side reported that 16 POWs were killed in the incident. The video has been geolocated near the town of Mykolaivka in the Donetsk region. According to DeepState, the town is under Russian control, though the Russian Ministry of Defense claims that fighting is still ongoing in the area. This incident marks yet another war crime committed by Russian soldiers.
There has been a surge in videos showing Russian reconnaissance UAVs disguised as Ukrainian drones, marked with the triangle tactical marking or the Ukrainian Air Force roundel. During the Syrian war, the Russian Aerospace Forces regularly painted over their identification marks (red stars) and aircraft numbers, likely in an effort to obscure the origin of airstrikes on civilian targets.
While videos of Ukrainian FPV drones intercepting Russian reconnaissance UAVs continue to be released, similar footage is now being published by the Russian side. Ukrainian military expert Serhii "Flash" Beskrestnov cautioned in a recent post that Russia holds a significant advantage in drone numbers and emphasized Ukraine’s urgent need to ramp up its production of reconnaissance drones and develop countermeasures against Russian interception drones.
Beskrestnov also shared images of an optical-electronic system with a thermal camera and laser target designator removed from a Russian Zala drone. Reports of drones using green laser beams began circulating in late August.
Additionally, Beskrestnov released a video showing Russian soldiers launching FPV drones from helicopters, likely over the Black Sea, as part of what appears to be a training exercise to counter Ukrainian unmanned surface vessels.
According to articles written about the federal budget project for next year, Russia plans to increase spending on defense and national security to 17 trillion rubles [$180 billion]. This enormous sum accounts for more than 40% of all budget expenditures and is comparable to the combined total spending on healthcare, social welfare and pensions. Even if the war in Ukraine is frozen next year, defense spending is likely to remain high in the coming years as significant funds will be needed to restore the army. It is worth noting that the US Congress passed its $61 billion military aid package for Ukraine only after much difficulty, with negotiations taking several months. It is also important to consider that Russian-made ammunition and equipment are significantly cheaper than those supplied by the US to Ukraine.
The Mozhem Ob'yasnit [We Can Explain] Telegram channel reports that in 2025, the Readovka online news resource linked to Russian oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhyn will receive 49 million rubles [$517,400] from the federal budget. Vladimir Solovyov’s TV channel Solovyov Live will be allocated 4.5 billion rubles [$47.52 million] between 2025 and 2027. For comparison, the state holding RT [Russia Today, a Russian state-controlled international news television network] will receive 79 billion rubles [$834 million] from the federal budget over three years, while the All-Russia State Television and Radio Broadcasting Company (VGTRK) will get 51 billion [$537 million]. In such conditions, it is extremely difficult for independent outlets to compete with the propaganda machine, which is why we encourage you to support your favorite independent media and projects.
We also believe that the West should promote a “brain drain” as an integral part of its sanctions policy against Russia, because if the conditions are created for talented people to leave Russia, it would damage the Russian economy and hinder its war effort. Sadly, instead, Russian citizens have been facing numerous obstacles. For instance, on Oct. 1, ABBYY employees, holding Russian or Belorussian passports, were massively laid off in the company’s offices in Hungary, Serbia and Cyprus.
On Sept. 30, Putin signed a decree initiating the regular fall conscription campaign which will last from Oct. 1 to Dec. 31. Conscripts will continue to receive paper draft notices, while electronic ones will not be legally valid until the Unified Military Register, a digital system to identify citizens subject to military service, comes into force, which has been postponed until Jan. 1, 2025. The campaign calls for 133 thousand men between the ages of 18 and 30 to be conscripted, which is three thousand more than last fall.
Under current circumstances, statutory military service is deemed to be especially dangerous as conscripts are being regularly killed in Russian border areas and many are forced to sign contracts with the MoD and fight in Ukraine. Therefore, it is strongly recommended to evade conscription by all available means and use trusted projects that help deserters and military service refusniks, such as the "Idite Lesom," "Kovcheg," or the "Movement of Conscientious Objectors."
In the previous sitrep, we quoted the pro-Russian Telegram channel Northern Channel, which claims affiliation with the Group of Troops "North." It reported a shortage of 122mm ammunition and 5.45mm small arms rounds. Unfortunately, we did not give sufficient attention to verifying this information and referenced a fake: Northern Channel mimics being pro-Russian but is in fact part of a Ukrainian information-psychological operation.
However, it is worth noting that the pro-Russian blogger Yegor "Trinadtsatyy" Guzenko, complains of shell hunger across several directions and specifically highlights the 98th Guards Airborne Division fighting in Chasiv Yar. He suggests that the imposed limits on shell expenditure can only be explained by the recent ammunition depot explosions and questions where the newly produced shells are going and why there are so few of them delivered to soldiers on the frontline. We allow for the possibility that Guzenko may be exaggerating the scale of the problem.
Also, in the previous sitrep, we cited a statement by the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine regarding the murder of RuAF Colonel Aleksey Kolomeytsev, who commanded the 924th Center for Combat Use and Aviation Personnel Training for Drone Aviation of the Russian Ministry of Defense. Pro-Russian war correspondent Semyon Pegov (a.k.a. WarGonzo) claims that Aleksey Kolomeytsev is alive and is not an active serviceman but has long been retired. Nevertheless, we note that the person in the Main Directorate of Intelligence photographs resembles Kolomeytsev in appearance and physique.