Sitrep for Sept. 27-30, 2024 (as of 8 a.m. UTC+3)Â
Frontline Situation Update
In recent days, the frontline in the Vuhledar direction has not changed. There is still an area several kilometers wide between Russian positions within Russian firing range. Vuhledar itself has almost no single-family house residential neighborhoods, consisting mostly of high-rise buildings, but there are clusters of dachas near the city, which Russian forces have already entered. Currently, Vuhledar is in operational encirclement, and its eastern part is already marked as contested by DeepState.
There have been minor changes in the Pokrovsk direction. Russian forces have straightened the frontline south of the village of Novohrodivka and captured the village of Marynivka, as well as advanced south of the village of Tsukuryne, which is now partially encircled.
Pro-Russian Telegram channels have published videos of a Russian drone equipped to release a thermite mixture being used, reportedly in the Kursk direction. It is worth noting that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been using such drones for about a month, primarily targeting forest lines where Russian positions are located, often causing significant damage. The Russian version does not look as impressive as the Ukrainian one, but could still be effective when the grass and forest are dry, where a cigarette stub is enough to spark a large fire.
Ukrainian and Russian Strikes
On Sept. 28, the Russian Armed Forces attacked a city hospital in Sumy with loitering munitions. Such an attack is a war crime in itself, even if the hospital was treating military personnel, although we have not yet seen evidence of this. Moreover, after the first strike, when first responders and police arrived on the scene, a second strike occurred. Such a double-tap attack is another war crime. At the moment, 10 people, including one police officer, are known to have been killed and 22, including another police officer, wounded.
On the morning of Sept. 29, Russian forces launched a massive strike on the city of Zaporizhzhia, resulting in 16 people wounded, including a teenager and a child.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy released the statistics on strikes across Ukrainian territory over the past week, according to which Russian forces launched almost 900 glide bombs, more than 300 Shahed-136 (Geran-2) loitering munitions and more than 40 missiles.
In total, on Sept. 28 and 29, 25 civilians were killed and 131 were injured as a result of strikes on both sides of the frontline.
The Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense stated that Colonel of the RuAF Aleksey Kolomeytsev, who headed the 924th State Center for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles of the Russian Ministry of Defense, was killed in Kolomna, Moscow region. This center, as far as we know, is engaged in training Shahed loitering munition operators. We believe that for the Main Intelligence Directorate, this is an act of retaliation for Russian war crimes, including in Sumy. However, pro-Russian war correspondent Semyon Pegov (a.k.a. WarGonzo) denied the death of Kolomeytsev, also claiming that he retired long ago, without providing any evidence.
According to the Belarusian Railway Workers Union, several shipments of ammunition arrived from Belarus shortly before the strikes on ammunition depots in the Tver region, including 94 wagons carrying surface-to-air missiles dispatched from a SAM repair facility near the Belarusian town of Asipovichy. These bases handle missile maintenance, replacing or refurbishing worn-out components and ensuring all systems are operational. This underscores the depth of the involvement of Belarusian industry in the war in Ukraine, assisting Russia by repairing SAMs.
The pro-Russian Telegram channel Northern Channel reported that the ammunition depots destroyed in the Tver region supplied ammunition to Russian forces in the Kursk, Belgorod and Kharkiv regions. Russian units operating in the Sudzha area have begun reporting shortages of 122mm D-30 howitzer shells, as well as 5.45mm ammunition for Kalashnikov assault rifles (including AK-74, AK-12 and AK-105 models). Local commanders have reportedly been forced to source ammunition from other areas of the front to mitigate these shortages.
On Sept. 29, Ukrainian drones struck the 57229-51 military unit in the village of Kotluban, Volgograd region. This unit, responsible for storing ammunition, is located about 300 km [185 mi] from the Ukrainian border. Therefore, if Ukraine was allowed to use long-range Western-produced missiles, Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles would lack the necessary range, while the long-range version of the ATACMS missile could have reached the site only from the border. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine claims that despite dense air defense and electronic warfare coverage, the arsenal was hit, causing ammunition, including Iranian missiles, to detonate. However, satellite images published by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty on Sept. 29 indicate that the fire started near the arsenal but did not spread to its territory.
On Sept. 28, an explosion occurred on a railway bridge in the town of Kinel, Samara region, as a train carrying fuel tanks was passing over it. This did not stop the train, as the main part of the bridge was not destroyed. The explosion damaged and collapsed the side sections of the bridge, which are usually used by railway workers for infrastructure maintenance. Kinel is more than 1,200 km [745 mi] from the Ukrainian border, so even the complete destruction of this bridge would not have a significant impact on the war, as trains could be rerouted via other railways. Similar acts of sabotage have already been observed at an even greater distance from the border — in Buryatia [Russia's constituent republic] on the Baikal-Amur Mainline — and have not had a major effect.
A week rich with political events, such as the UN General Assembly, Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s meetings with US President Joe Biden and presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, is now over. As far as we can tell, Zelenskyy’s meeting with Biden and the presentation of the Victory Plan have not yielded the results Zelenskyy aspired for, while no restrictions on the use of Western high precision weapons inside Russia have been lifted.
As for Zelenskyy’s meetings with the presidential candidates, Kamala Harris announced that she would do everything needed for Ukraine to win, while Donald Trump still talks of ending the war, claiming that his good relations with both Zelenskyy and Putin will allow him to reach a good deal for both sides. In answer to journalists’ question about what he means by "a good deal" Trump said that it was too early to talk about it. Only two days before his meeting with Zelenskyy Trump had criticized him for refusing to make a deal with Putin.
It is doubtful that if Kamala Harris wins the US will considerably increase its military aid to Ukraine, while Donald Trump’s victory will almost certainly aggravate the situation for Ukraine.