Sitrep for April 28-May 2, 2025 (as of 8:30 a.m. UTC+3)

Frontline Situation Update

In the Kursk region, no changes have been recorded in recent days: despite General Valery Gerasimov’s claims, both the villages of Oleshnya and Gornal remain designated as contested territory (as shown on the DeepState map as well). There has been no confirmation that Russian forces have managed to clear the remaining strip of the Ukrainian foothold along the border.

In the Lyman direction, Russian forces have advanced southwest from the occupied village of Katerynivka toward the village of Nove. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, it has already been captured. A video filmed in the village shows it being cleared, with Ukrainian soldiers taken prisoner, and Russian troops walking through Nove carrying a Russian flag. Based on this footage and the change in the frontline on the DeepState map, we can conclude that the village has indeed been captured. In addition, the Russian Armed Forces have advanced north of Katerynivka near the village of Novomykhailivka.

Looking at the map showing the fortifications of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, it is clear that the RuAF had to break through defenses to capture Nove. This suggests that further advances toward the Oskil River could be faster, as there are virtually no fortifications between Nove and the river. Ukrainian military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets had already warned of this, assessing the situation in the Lyman direction as approaching critical. It now appears that his forecast is beginning to come true, because now that the RuAF have broken through the fortifications, their further advance could accelerate if the AFU do not take urgent measures to stabilize this direction.

Russian forces are also continuing attempts to advance in the southern part of the Lyman direction, from the village of Yampolivka toward the villages of Zarichne and Torske—a video of a failed assault geolocated to this area has appeared.

In the Toretsk direction, Russian forces have captured the village of Sukha Balka and slightly straightened the frontline north of it. Additionally, the RuAF have advanced towards the village of Dachne, northeast of Toretsk, and made some progress inside the town itself.

To the west, Russian troops have advanced from the villages of Vozdvyzhenka and Baranivka towards the village of Berezivka, heading towards the highway connecting Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka. Furthermore, the RuAF are attempting to reach this highway near the village of Novoolenivka, north of Berezivka. A Ukrainian soldier with the callsign Muchnoy reported on fighting in Novoolenivka on his Telegram channel. According to him, the AFU had to retreat as the Russian assault was supported by artillery and drones (including fiber-optic ones). Pro-Russian sources also reported on the fighting in the village, but it remains unclear how successful they have been and whether the RuAF have managed to gain a foothold in Novoolenivka. Additionally, videos of RuAF attacks geo-located in this village have emerged.

In the Novopavlivka (Kurakhove) direction, Russian troops continue their offensive towards the village of Bahatyr: fighting is already taking place on its outskirts. This indicates that the RuAF have reached the N-15 highway in this area.

Ukrainian and Russian Strikes

Prominent Ukrainian volunteer and former serviceman Taras Chmut released a video discussing long-range strikes and shortcomings in military training. According to Chmut, when Ukrainian forces first began striking deep inside Russian territory, the operations were limited in scale but effective. Since then, significant resources have been invested in developing strike capabilities but the number of personnel capable of properly planning such operations, selecting targets, and verifying them has not increased accordingly. As a result, while the number of Ukrainian strikes on targets inside Russia has risen significantly, their effectiveness has declined due to the lack of capacity to accurately identify and confirm such a large volume of targets.

Footage has emerged showing the destruction of a Buk-M3 surface-to-air missile system by a HIMARS MLRS somewhere along the frontline. The burst of flying sparks after the impact indicates that the target was a real system and not a decoy.

On April 30, eight Ukrainian drones targeted the Murom Instrument-Making Plant in the city of Murom, in Russia’s Vladimir region. According to the Dos’ye Shpiona [Spy Dossier] Telegram channel, the strike completely destroyed the finished goods warehouse—reportedly containing primers for firearms—and an administrative building, and damaged several production workshops. Although the facility was equipped with electronic warfare systems, they failed to prevent the drone strike.

Russia’s National Guard, Rosgvardia, received a shipment of Chinese-made Vyzhigatel electronic warfare systems known as worth more than 820 million rubles [$10 million], which turned out to be counterfeit. The equipment reportedly "simply did not respond to drones." Nine criminal cases have been opened against the businessman who acted as an intermediary in the deal. It is worth noting that reports about the equipment’s origin first surfaced in the fall of 2024 via the now-deleted VChK-OGPU Telegram channel.

On the morning of May 1, a drone strike hit a market in the occupied town of Oleshky in the Kherson region. According to statements from the occupation authorities, the attack killed 8 people and injured 11 others. The AFU did not comment on the accusations. The Ukrainian Kherson Non Fake Telegram channel claimed the target of the strike was a concentration of Russian soldiers at the market, who had allegedly been observed there since the 20s of April. However, there is no independent confirmation of this information. Published video footage shows a strike on a group of four men in dark civilian clothing standing in the backyard of one of the buildings.

Follow-up strikes occurred afterward, with drone footage capturing another hit on a nearby structure.

A photo published by Volodymyr Saldo, the Russian-appointed governor of the Kherson region, shows the body of a person, also in dark civilian clothing, lying next to a bicycle. In the video, two holes can be seen in the roof of a building—similar in size to those typically caused by FPV drones—as well as a strike on another building by a kamikaze drone.

International humanitarian law requires weighing the anticipated military advantage of a strike against the potential harm to civilians. If military personnel are present in a marketplace and a strike can be carried out in a way that minimizes harm to civilians, it is considered permissible. However, in this case, there is currently no evidence that the strikes specifically targeted military personnel. Some commentators have attempted to link this attack to the negotiation process, but we disagree with this interpretation. Such strikes occur regularly, though they often go unnoticed. For example, on April 27, during an attack on the occupied city of Horlivka, one person was killed and six others were injured. (Such strikes and attacks occur there regularly—more details can be found in our attack summaries for March, February, January 31 and January 24.)

In the early hours of May 2, 31 people were injured in a massive UAV strike on the city of Zaporizhzhia. Initial reports stated that one person had died, but first responders were able to rescue him alive from under the rubble.

Peace Talks

On May 1, a natural resources agreement was signed between the US and Ukraine, granting the US priority in all investment projects related to the extraction of any minerals in Ukraine and infrastructure. Unlike the options previously proposed by the Trump administration, this agreement is considered quite reasonable.

Presumably, the signing gives Kyiv an advantage in negotiations with Russia, demonstrating to the US that Ukraine is capable of making agreements. The fund will be replenished exclusively through revenues from new licenses, and under the agreement, Ukraine has no debt obligations to the US. Previously, Trump had demanded that Ukraine pay for past arms deliveries, but Volodymyr Zelenskyy persuaded him to exclude this provision. The new US military aid will be considered a contribution to the fund.

Mykhailo Podolyak, Advisor to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, stated that the natural resources agreement with the US guarantees the supply of air defense systems to Ukraine.

According to sources from the Kyiv Post media outlet, the Trump administration has informed Congress of its intention to approve the export of defense products to Ukraine through Direct Commercial Sales. The first package, totaling $50 million, has been approved.

It is worth noting that at the end of March, Trump stated that if a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine was not reached due to Russia’s fault, certain "secondary tariffs" of 25% would be imposed on Russian oil exports. A month of Washington's efforts has brought no significant progress in the negotiation process, but the US has not yet withdrawn from it. In response to journalists’ questions about the current state of negotiations, Trump said that Putin is a very smart and cunning person who does not want to end the war, and that a ceasefire agreement is no longer guaranteed.

Western Assistance

Photos have emerged of several F-16 fighter jet fuselages being loaded onto a Ukrainian Antonov An-124 aircraft in Arizona at the Montana Air Base, which serves as a storage facility for numerous fuselages of the kind. Later, the aircraft left for Rzeszów in eastern Poland. The fuselages are likely to be transported to Ukraine for use as donor parts, for training purposes or for use as decoys.

A video has been published of a Ukrainian F-16 shooting down a Shahed-type drone in the sky over the Khmelnitskyi region. We have already reported several times of these aircraft being used as flying air defense systems. Though the cost of an air-to-air missile is much higher than that of a UAV, such use is still justified since the cost of the missile must be weighed against the potential damage caused by the UAV.

Defense Express reports that the Ukrainian company 3D Tech has launched mass local production of 30-kilometer [19 mi] fiber-optic coils for drones. It is worth noting that all previous statements from both the Ukrainian and Russian sides mentioned fiber-optic drones with a range of no more than 10-20 km [6-12 mi].

Videos have been released showing a test of the Ukrainian Batyar S UAV, which outwardly resembles the Shahed Shahed-136 / Geran-2 loitering munition.

A Russian soldier shot and killed a family with children in the village of Giri, Belovsky district, Kursk region. In the early hours of April 30, under the pretext of checking documents, he entered the home of the Larin family in Giri and opened fire with an assault rifle. The mother of three children was killed, the father was severely wounded, while the children were physically unharmed. According to local residents, the soldier appeared to be in an inadequate mental state—possibly under the influence of drugs. The Astra Telegram channel also quoted a witness who claimed that the killer attempted to abduct the Larins’ two young daughters, aged 6 and 10.

Ramazan Gadzhimuradov, a 28-year-old Russian soldier, was detained after being released from the hospital where he was recovering from a car accident in Belgorod in the early hours of Feb. 7. While drunk, he had run a red light and crashed into an ambulance. Two paramedics died in the accident, and the case is now being handled by military investigators. He will likely avoid responsibility by being sent to the war.

We need your support to continue our efforts. Please consider making a monthly donation to CIT through our fundraising page or Patreon.