Sitrep for Feb. 21-24, 2025 (as of 11 a.m. UTC+3)
Frontline Situation Update
In the South Donetsk direction, Russian forces have straightened the frontline north of the village of Velyka Novosilka, capturing the villages of Novoocheretuvate and Novyi Komar, and are advancing along the Mokri Yaly River toward the village of Dniproenerhiia.
In the Novopavlivka direction, the Russian Armed Forces have nearly captured the village of Ulakly—a development preemptively announced by Russia’s Ministry of Defense. It is possible that Russian forces will soon straighten the frontline here as well, as indicated by their advances in the village of Andriivka. Additionally, fighting continues for the village of Kostiantynopil, which, like Ulakly, is located along the N-15 highway.
In the Pokrovsk direction, there have been no advances by the RuAF for several days. This is yet another example of Russia’s tactics over the past year: after identifying a weak point in Ukrainian defenses, they attempt a breakthrough and redeploy reserves to maximize their success. However, as soon as the offensive slows down, the area loses priority, and Russian forces begin searching for a new vulnerable sector on the frontline.
Currently, it appears that Russian priorities have shifted to the Novopavlivka and Toretsk directions, where, according to Ukrainian military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets, additional forces are being deployed. In particular, the 150th Motorized Rifle Division has been moved to this sector, as reported by servicemen of the 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade.
It appears that the Russian offensive in the future Kostiantynivka direction will develop from three sides: from the village of Vozdvyzhenka on the eastern flank of the Pokrovsk direction, from the town of Toretsk, and from the town of Chasiv Yar (once the RuAF manage to approach the town of Kostiantynivka from the west and south.)
While this plan seems clear and relatively easy to implement, in reality, its execution will require massive resource expenditures from Russia and could take many months. In turn, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are actively resisting Russian advances: they are successfully counter-attacking Russian positions not only south of the town of Pokrovsk but also near the interchange on the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka highway and the village of Vodiane Druhe, thereby preventing the RuAF from crossing the highway and advancing further. Additionally, the AFU continue fighting for Toretsk, despite the Russian MoD announcing its capture earlier this month. Ukrainian forces' presence in the area is further confirmed by the destruction of a Russian Aerospace Forces Sukhoi Su-25 Grach (Frogfoot) attack aircraft on Feb. 8.
In the Luhansk region, the RuAF may have captured the village of Bilohorivka in the Siversk direction after months of fighting. This is supported by a video showing Russian soldiers with flags moving freely among the ruins of the village. It is worth noting that there is currently no consensus among Russian military bloggers regarding the capture of the village. Bilohorivka is known not only for changing hands periodically over the three years of the full-scale invasion but also for the defeat of Russian forces in May 2022. At that time, the RuAF advanced from the Luhansk and Kharkiv regions towards Lysychansk to encircle Ukrainian troops in the town. On May 4 and 5, Russian forces attempted to cross the Siverskyi Donets River near the village of Dronivka, and from May 12 in the area of Bilohorivka. Under the cover of fog, they deployed a pontoon crossing; however, Ukrainian forces, hearing the sound of motorboats, conducted aerial reconnaissance and targeted Russian troops with recently arrived M777 howitzers. As a result, the crossing was destroyed, and the Russian units that had managed to cross were cut off. Subsequent attempts to establish a crossing were made, accompanied by significant losses in military equipment and personnel. In total, approximately 80 armored vehicles were lost, and nearly 500 soldiers were wounded or killed over the course of the operation. These losses were roughly equivalent to a battalion tactical group at that time. It was one of the bloodiest battles of the war.
At a press conference in Kyiv on Feb. 23, Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced his intention to exchange the Kursk bridgehead for Ukrainian territories occupied by Russia, officially confirming earlier rumors. Both sides have recently been attempting to bolster their positions: Russian forces are working to clear the bridgehead, while Ukrainian forces seek to expand it. Specifically, as Ukrainian troops try to advance from the village of Makhnovka toward the hamlet of Fanaseyevka, Russian soldiers have attacked Ukrainian positions in the village of Cherkasskaya Konopelka. These efforts, however, have not led to significant shifts in the frontline.
The pro-Russian Arkhangel Spetsnaza [Archangel of Special Forces] Telegram channel reported that Western F-16 fighter aircraft have increasingly been spotted near the Russian-Ukrainian border in the Sumy region. In one instance, a jet was observed accompanied by two MiG-29 fighters, which launched air-dropped bombs toward the village of Sverdlikovo. Ukraine’s F-16s, equipped with air-to-air missiles among other weaponry, are being utilized as "flying air defense." They are also fitted with Therma Pids+ pylons featuring an integrated missile warning system. Each pylon houses six sensors, providing near-spherical coverage around the aircraft. They detect missile launches, after which the electronic countermeasures system automatically selects the optimal sequence for deploying flares to enhance the plane’s survivability. Additionally, the F-16s carry GBU-39/B bombs, enabling them to strike ground targets.
A video recorded in the Sumy region has been released, showing an Iskander ballistic missile strike on a Ukrainian Buk-M1 air defense system. Secondary detonations seen in the video confirm that the target was not a decoy.
Ukrainian and Russian Strikes
According to the Air Force of the AFU, in the early hours of Feb. 23, Russia carried out its largest drone air attack: 267 Shahed drones were recorded over Ukrainian territory, 119 of which were false targets. These false targets are used to overload Ukraine’s air defense systems. In reports from the Air Force of the AFU, such drones are usually described as "lost to radar," but it remains unclear how exactly the decoy drones are identified.
Upcoming Peace Talks
Discussions continue regarding an agreement between the US and Ukraine on revenue from Ukrainian mineral resources. A new draft proposal has emerged, suggesting the creation of an investment fund entirely owned by the US. Ukraine would be required to allocate half of the revenue from all mineral extraction until the total contribution reaches $500 billion. Reports indicate that, in the future, this fund would also reinvest money into Ukraine’s reconstruction.
Presently, Ukraine refuses to sign the agreement in its current form because it continues to lack security guarantees, and the final amount is not justified by any clear reasoning. Moreover, the military aid provided to Ukraine was issued as grants, not loans. Additionally, the claim that Ukraine must return two dollars for every dollar invested appears questionable.
Despite this, Donald Trump’s special envoy John Witkoff stated that he expects the agreement granting the US access to Ukraine’s mineral resources to be signed this week.
Some believe that Trump is not displeased with Ukraine itself but personally with Zelenskyy for refusing in 2019 to launch an investigation into Hunter Biden, the son of Joe Biden. Such an investigation could have influenced the outcome of the 2020 US elections and helped Trump secure victory.
The Wall Street Journal journalist Yaroslav Trofimov suggested that the pro-Russian sentiment within the Trump administration might be linked to an attempt to break the alliance between Russia and China. In the 1970s, Nixon and Kissinger shifted US policy toward China by exploiting divisions between Beijing and Moscow. Now, Trump might be attempting a similar strategy to drive a wedge between Russia and China, however, he is instead weakening the West and alienating European partners. Reports say that before negotiations between Russian and American officials, a certain think tank affiliated with the Russian government produced a report proposing various concessions to the US administration. One of the suggestions reportedly considered was halting military and technological cooperation with China and limiting Chinese participation in infrastructure projects in exchange for the war in Ukraine ending on terms favorable for Russia. However, experts argue that Russia cannot significantly help Washington in containing China, particularly because China has already surpassed Russia in military technology.
On Feb. 23, in Kyiv, President Zelenskyy held a press conference where he stated that security guarantees for Ukraine could also take the form of economic agreements. Additionally, if Ukraine’s partners are unwilling to integrate the country into NATO and provide security guarantees as an alliance member, comparable security assurances could come in the form of funding for an 800,000-strong Ukrainian army.
Responding to Trump’s criticism regarding the absence of elections in Ukraine, Zelenskyy stated that he would be willing to trade his presidency for Ukraine’s NATO membership.
He also emphasized that frozen Russian assets in Europe are Ukrainian funds, not joint assets with international partners, and therefore, decisions regarding their fate should be made by Ukrainians.
On Feb. 22, White House Press Secretary Caroline Leavitt stated that Trump is confident he can achieve an end to the Russia-Ukraine war "this week." Zelenskyy responded to this comment, saying that ending the war with security guarantees for Ukraine this week is impossible.
Trump announced that the next round of negotiations between the US and Russia would take place on Feb. 25 in Riyadh. However, according to Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov, no US-Russia meeting is being prepared for Feb. 25 in Riyadh.
The US sought to introduce a "soft resolution" in the UN Security Council on Feb. 24, which would not condemn Russian aggression but merely call for peace. This resolution could have been blocked by the UK or France. At the same time, Washington put pressure on Ukraine to withdraw its own resolution for the UN General Assembly, which condemns Russian military aggression and details Russia’s war crimes, including territorial seizures, the murder of prisoners of war, and the deportation of children. Secretary of State Marco Rubio instructed US diplomats in various countries to pressure local governments into supporting the American resolution over Ukraine’s. Ultimately, the General Assembly adopted both resolutions.
Elon Musk has denied that Starlink could be shut down in Ukraine if it refuses to sign an agreement on mineral extraction. However, if a shutdown does occur, it would significantly weaken the AFU, as there is currently no full-fledged alternative to Starlink: mobile internet and radio communications are easily jammed, while satellite internet from other companies is significantly more expensive and less reliable.
US allies who regularly exchange intelligence with American agencies are looking for ways to protect highly classified information from potential leaks in Donald Trump’s new administration. Concerned foreign partners aim to interact more with CIA Director John Ratcliffe while minimizing contact with Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard.
US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has announced the dismissal of several high-ranking military officials, including Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Charles Brown, Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Lisa Franchetti, and multiple three- and four-star generals and admirals. Additionally, Trump and Hegseth have fired senior military legal advisors—the Judge Advocates General of various branches—who traditionally interpret the law for military leadership and ensure that combat operations align with national values.
Some time ago, Trump signed an executive order stating that only he and the Attorney General have the authority to interpret the law, effectively removing military legal advisors from the process. Historically, top US military leadership has remained in place during transitions between administrations. Still, Trump and Hegseth are now conducting mass purges, aiming to bring the armed forces under complete White House control.
This move threatens US national security, projects weakness to global autocrats such as Vladimir Putin, and grants Donald Trump unprecedented authority over the military.
In an interview with Fedor Krasheninnikov [Russian journalist and political analyst], sociologist Grigory Yudin described the current situation in the US as the revival of an elective monarchy.
Western Assistance
On Feb. 24, marking the anniversary of the start of the war, EU leaders, the heads of 13 European states, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau arrived in Kyiv.
The European Union is preparing an additional €20 billion [$21 bln] military aid package for Ukraine. The package includes artillery shells, air defense systems, precision-guided cruise missiles, UAVs, and other weaponry. Since this aid will be funded through contributions from individual EU member states rather than an official EU package, Hungary will not be able to block it.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced that in March, Ukraine will receive a €3.5 billion [$3.7 bln] aid tranche from the EU.
Meanwhile, Sweden will provide Ukraine with air defense systems worth $113 million, including RBS-70 (Robot 70) man-portable air defense systems and Tridon Mk2 systems—truck-mounted anti-aircraft guns with 40mm cannons.
These systems are well-suited for countering jet-powered Geran (Shahed) UAVs, against which machine gun-based air defense systems are ineffective, while missiles from Buk SAM systems or IRIS-T are too costly.
As part of its 16th sanctions package, the EU has cut off 13 Russian banks from the SWIFT payment system. A further 48 individuals and 35 legal entities have been sanctioned. In addition, 53 companies, mostly non-Russian but registered in China, India, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkey, UAE, etc., have been sanctioned for their direct support of the Russian military-industrial complex. Furthermore, 74 tankers of Russia's shadow fleet were also sanctioned, and eight pro-Kremlin media outlets were banned from broadcasting.
Australia has also adopted another package of sanctions against Russia, the largest since the start of the war, with 70 more people prohibited from entering the country. A further 79 companies have been sanctioned, including additional targeted financial restrictions.
The Times reports that as part of another anti-Russian sanctions package, the UK will ban all senior Russian officials and politicians, as well as CEOs and managers of major Russian companies, from entering the country.
Conscription, Mobilization and Contract Military Service
The authorities of the Samara region have partially revoked the highest sign-up bonus in Russia for signing a contract with the Ministry of Defense. Now, only officers and those renewing their contracts (though it is unclear what exactly this means, given the contracts’ indefinite nature) will be eligible to receive 3.6 million rubles [$40,700]. All others will receive 2.1 million rubles [$23,700], with the total sign-up bonus amounting to 2.5 million rubles [$28,300] when including the national payout. The 3.6-million-ruble payment was introduced in the Samara region on Jan. 1, 2025. Due to the strain on the regional budget, the authorities had planned to decide each month whether to extend it or not.
BBC News Russian, in collaboration with Mediazona [an independent Russian media outlet] and a team of volunteers, has identified the names of 95,026 Russian soldiers who had been killed by the end of the third year of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine based on open-source data.
Additionally, Meduza [an international Russian-language online media outlet] and Mediazona have updated their statistical estimate of excess male mortality by comparing and analyzing the named lists of the deceased with the National Probate Registry. Over three years of war, approximately 160,000 Russian soldiers have been killed.
Furthermore, Mediazona has published a named list of Russian soldiers who died in the war. The project's main page features photographs from obituaries forming Vasily Vereshchagin’s painting The Apotheosis of War. The artwork does not depict heroism but rather the horrors of war—its final, inevitable, outcome. Vereshchagin was convinced that wars bring nothing but destruction and death. There is no distinction between "winners" and "losers"—all become mere remains on the battlefield.
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