Sitrep for Feb. 3-10, 2025 (as of 10:30 a.m. UTC+3)
Frontline Situation Update
Over the past week, the frontline has not undergone any significant changes, including in the South Donetsk direction, where Russian forces were expected to push deeper on the western flank, into the southern part of the Donetsk region.
Some minor changes have been reported in the Kurakhove direction, specifically in the village of Dachne to the west of Kurakhove, in the village of Andriivka north of the N-15 highway, and in the village of Zelenivka in the Sukhi Yaly River valley. However, these adjustments have not fundamentally altered the situation, as the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to hold off Russian attempts to take full control of the remaining territory west of Kurakhove.
Even in the Pokrovsk direction, where the Russian Armed Forces had previously been steadily pushing through Ukrainian defenses on the western flank, there has been virtually no progress over the past week, despite uninterrupted heavy fighting. Some, such as pro-Russian military correspondent Yury Kotenok, attribute this slowdown to the appointment of General Mykhailo Drapatyi as commander of the Khortytsia operational-strategic group, which is engaged in the battles for the Donetsk region, and Ukrainian counterattacks on this flank hindering further Russian advances. However, Ukrainian military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets disagrees, arguing that the current slowdown is due to the rotation of Russian units to replenish their losses. At this point, we do not have enough data to determine which explanation is more accurate.
Russia’s Ministry of Defense recently announced the full capture of Toretsk, but given that urban combat is still ongoing, this claim does not appear to reflect reality. However, most of the town is under Russian control. Pro-Russian Telegram channels have coined a term for such situations calling them "advances on credit."
On Feb. 8, a Russian Air and Space Forces Sukhoi Su-25 Grach (Frogfoot) attack aircraft was shot down between Toretsk and Horlivka. It is possible that, relying on official reports of Toretsk’s capture, the pilot and his command considered flights over the area to be safe. According to the pro-Russian Telegram channel Fighterbomber, which is associated with the Russian Air and Space Force, the pilot survived and is currently in a hospital.
Additionally, a video was published showing an attempt to strike an evacuation helicopter with FPV drones as it searched for the downed pilot. The attack does not appear to have been successful. The drone's video feed cut off 15–20 meters [50 feet] before reaching the target, which could be attributed to electronic warfare interference. Pro-Russian Telegram channels have claimed that EW countermeasures were installed on the helicopter.
Changes in the frontline in the Kupiansk direction in the Kharkiv region are noticeable only against the backdrop of the relative calm in the Donetsk region. On the right bank of the Oskil River, Russian troops have expanded their bridgehead near the village of Zapadne. Further expansion of this bridgehead is expected towards the villages of Doroshivka and Kindrashivka. All these actions, along with the buildup of forces in this direction, indicate preparations for an offensive on the town of Kupiansk.
The most significant events occurred last week in the Kursk region, where the AFU launched a new attack on Russian positions. Earlier this year, Ukraine had conducted an offensive from the village of Martynovka, which only resulted in an expansion of the contested area near the village of Berdin. In this current offensive, the AFU, advancing from the village of Makhnovka toward the village of Ulanok, managed to expand their zone of control by capturing the village of Cherkasskaya Konopelka and reaching the outskirts of the village of Fanaseyevka (also known as Fanseyevka). A video emerged showing a failed Russian counterattack in this area, which resulted in the destruction of two BMP infantry fighting vehicles along with personnel.
Additionally, the Ukrainian Chimera drone unit has released footage indicating the renewed involvement of North Korean soldiers in combat in the Kursk region. It appears they are now fighting alongside Russian troops.
Western Assistance
In the three weeks since Donald Trump's inauguration, no new aid packages for Ukraine have been announced.
Trump stated that he wants to meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy next week. During the meeting, which may take place in Washington, the leaders of the US and Ukraine are expected to discuss the supply of rare earth minerals in exchange for support for Ukraine in the war.
The first French Mirage 2000 fighter jets and a new batch of F-16 fighter aircraft from the Netherlands have arrived in Ukraine. Photos of the Mirage aircraft flying over Poland on their way to Ukraine have been published.
It has become known that special contracts for military personnel aged 18 to 24 are being introduced in Ukraine. In an interview with Reuters, Zelenskyy stated that the terms of such a contract are fully prepared, with only technical issues remaining. The one-year contract includes free education, an interest-free housing loan and substantial financial compensation. This may be the Ukrainian administration's response to pressure from US officials who are pushing for lowering the mobilization age in the AFU to 18 years old.
Additionally, the Ukrainian government has approved a draft presidential decree regulating military service in the AFU, the National Guard and the State Transport Special Service. In particular, it provides for the abolition of statutory military service. According to Ukrainian MP Oleksii Goncharenko, these changes are part of a large-scale reform aimed at aligning the Ukrainian army with NATO standards.
Ukrainian and Russian Strikes
On the evening of Feb. 9, a loitering munition strike on Sumy injured a woman, damaged five houses and 15 cars, and set another six vehicles on fire.
Veniamin Kondratyev, Governor of the Krasnodar region, reported that in the early hours of Feb. 10, debris from a Ukrainian UAV fell onto the roof of a 19-story residential complex in downtown Krasnodar. No casualties were reported. Another drone was shot down in the village of Afipsky, where an oil refinery is located. According to Kondratyev, debris damaged a private house, but no one was injured. Ukrainian sources claim the target of the attack was the Afipsky oil refinery.
Zelenskyy stated that in the past week, the RuAF launched more than 1,260 air-dropped bombs, nearly 750 strike drones, and over 10 missiles of various types into Ukraine. This marks a significant increase in the number of air-dropped bombs: in previous weeks, Zelenskyy had reported 700–800 being used.
On Feb. 8, we published an article with statistics on attacks on civilian infrastructure in 2024. According to their tally, our volunteers estimate that over the past year, more than 2,600 people were killed in attacks in Ukraine and Russia, while over 14,000 civilians suffered injuries of varying severity. From May to September, the total number of killed and wounded never dropped below 1,600 per month. These figures indicate that attempts to create "buffer zones" would not necessarily ensure the safety of residents in border areas, and once again highlight the necessity of evacuating civilians from areas along the border and the frontline (including forcibly), as we have advocated since the beginning of the full-scale invasion.
Reports indicate that on Jan. 26, a Storm Shadow missile strike targeted an underground bunker storing attack UAVs in Russia’s Oryol region. However, satellite imagery shows no definitive signs identifying the site as a drone storage facility. While the image does reveal some visible damage, it remains impossible to determine whether the bunker was breached.
Japan’s NHK public broadcaster, citing multiple sources familiar with Russia-North Korea relations, reported that North Korea is developing, with Russian technical assistance, a new attack drone and plans to begin mass production later this year. In our view, designing a loitering munition is not, in principle, a highly complex technical task. The primary challenge lies in striking the right balance between a warhead powerful enough to destroy a target, a battery capable of sustaining long-range flight, and a compact design that minimizes the UAV’s radar cross-section. It is entirely plausible that North Korea has adopted some of Russia’s successful technical solutions used in the Lancet UAV and will manufacture its own variant based on that model.
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