Sitrep for Feb. 10-14, 2025 (as of 09:30 a.m. UTC+3)

​​Frontline Situation Update

In the South Donetsk direction, after a prolonged pause, Russian forces have begun advancing westward from the occupied village of Velyka Novosilka, near the village of Novosilka. It appears that the Russian Armed Forces have launched an offensive in the area between the villages of Novopil, Zelene Pole and Novosilka in the Donetsk region—a development that Ukrainian military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets had anticipated.

There are also new developments in the Kurakhove direction. Russian troops have strengthened their positions in the village of Dachne (which is partially captured and partially remains contested) and to its south. Despite this, the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to hold some positions in the area. North of the Vovcha River, the RuAF have captured most of the village of Andriivka and are continuing their advance westward. They have now come significantly closer to the village of Kostiantynopil, located along the Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk highway, and by advancing along this route, they could place an increasing section of the highway within weapon range, complicating the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces.

Some analysts believe the RuAF's current objective is to capture the salient west of the line connecting the village of Rozdolne with the villages of Sribne or Nadezhdynka (north of Andriivka). This is a large area, and its capture could take a considerable amount of time.

At the beginning of the week, significant changes took place in the Pokrovsk direction, where the AFU successfully launched counterattacks near the villages of Pishchane and Dachenske on the western flank, as well as near the village of Vodiane Druhe north of Vozdvyzhenka on the eastern flank. On Feb. 13, Russia's Ministry of Defense announced the capture of Vodiane Druhe. This could either be an "advance on credit" (a term explained in a previous sitrep) or a delayed report published after the AFU had already retaken some positions. We think the AFU’s successful counterattacks, combined with the lack of significant RuAF advances, mark an important shift in the Pokrovsk direction.

In the Kharkiv region, in the Kupiansk direction, Russian forces have significantly expanded their bridgehead on the right (western) bank of the Oskil River over the past 24 hours, in the area of the villages of Dvorichna, Novomlynsk and Zapadne. Dvorichna remains partially under Ukrainian control, with fighting ongoing for the village.

In the Kursk region, intense fighting has continued for the past week and a half as the RuAF seek to sever the supply routes of the Ukrainian bridgehead, specifically the road from the Sumy region to the town of Sudzha. They have also renewed attacks towards the village of Sverdlikovo in the western part of the bridgehead. Should the RuAF succeed in their dual-pronged assault, they could cut off supplies to the territory seized by the AFU northeast of the town of Sudzha, ultimately aiming to eliminate the bridgehead entirely. In response, the AFU is counterattacking southeast of Sudzha towards the village of Ulanok.

These Ukrainian counterattacks are significant, as the Kursk bridgehead remains viewed by Ukrainian leadership as a leverage point in future negotiations with Russia. It is not only the territory gained that matters, but also the overall trend—Ukraine will appear more successful if the AFU can demonstrate an ability to counterattack rather than merely defend. We believe that Ukraine's position at the negotiating table would have been considerably stronger if the Kursk operation had been initiated now or shortly before negotiations began.

The current uptick in frontline activity is closely tied to the prospect of negotiations.

Upcoming Peace Talks 

Donald Trump’s stance, in our view, looks weak. His public statements rejecting Ukraine’s NATO membership, ruling out a return to the 2014 borders, demanding that Ukraine pay for US military aid, and refusing to guarantee Ukraine’s security should hostilities cease all seem to play into Russia’s hands. Likewise, contradictory statements from US officials further obscure the actual position of the Trump administration. All these elements could have been used as leverage against Putin, but now the US has significantly fewer bargaining chips.

Additionally, Trump’s call to reinstate Russia in the G7—after its expulsion following the annexation of Crimea—also works in Putin’s favor. Trump has once again described Russia’s removal as a mistake. Meanwhile, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has stated that further US military aid to Ukraine could be part of future negotiations.

In our view, the fact that Trump spoke with Vladimir Putin and agreed to meet him in Saudi Arabia is already a major win for the Russian leader, as it signals a partial end to his international isolation. It is worth noting that Joe Biden has not spoken with Putin even once after the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Trump also announced that representatives from the US, Russia and Ukraine would meet at the Munich Security Conference on Feb. 14. However, it later emerged that neither Russian nor Ukrainian officials had confirmed their participation, while the Russian delegation was never accredited by Germany to attend. Additionally, US Vice President J.D. Vance and Senator Marco Rubio are scheduled to meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the conference.

The New York Times reports that Trump has tasked his Special Envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, to open a negotiation channel with Russian representatives. The NYT notes that Trump has been friends with Witkoff since the 1980s. According to Fox News, Witkoff has already met with Putin in Moscow, after which a prisoner exchange occurred: Mark Fogel returned to the US, while Alexander Vinnik was handed over to Russia. We believe that the preliminary stage of negotiations has already begun and is proceeding without the involvement of Ukraine or European countries.

Many see Trump’s special envoy Keith Kellogg as having a harder stance on Russia. However, we are under the impression that he is not directly involved in the key processes related to future negotiations. It appears that the issue of the war in Ukraine is handled by J.D. Vance, Steve Witkoff, and possibly Marco Rubio.

European countries seem to understand that the more confident Putin feels as a result of negotiations, the greater the security threats to the European continent will be. Therefore, they are seeking additional ways to support Ukraine to strengthen its position.

Representatives of France, Germany, Poland, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom issued a joint statement emphasizing their readiness to expand support for Ukraine and continue their efforts until a just, comprehensive and lasting peace is established. Their shared goal is to put Ukraine in a position of strength, as the security of all of Europe depends on it.

It is difficult to predict how well Ukraine can withstand Russian assaults without American assistance. Even under Biden, supplies from Europe and the US were only enough to sustain the current pace of the war rather than enable new large-scale operations. The Kursk operation is more of an exception than a rule.

Western Assistance

For the first time ever, at a Ramstein format meeting, the US has not announced any new military aid package for Ukraine.

According to some news media, after the meeting, the UK announced that this year it will allocate a £4.5 billion [$5.5 billion] military aid package for Ukraine. In fact, the exact same amount had already been announced in mid-January.

The government of Norway has announced it will allocate additional support to Ukraine amounting to 1.2 billion Norwegian kroner [$107.5 million], in order to purchase more air defense means from the US.

Germany is set to transfer about 100 IRIS-T missiles to Ukraine. In addition, the Netherlands has announced it will supply Ukraine with over 25 YPR armored personnel carriers, adding that they have already completed the delivery of T-72 tanks promised as part of a joint initiative with the Czech Republic and the United States.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has proposed that the Bundestag urgently pass a resolution recognizing the war in Ukraine as an “emergency,” which would allow additional defense funding without affecting other government expenditures. He has also suggested reforming the "debt brake" by excluding military expenditures from the national debt calculation to ensure long-term support for Ukraine and strengthen Germany's defense capabilities. We doubt this will pass less than two weeks before the elections.

The Senate has voted to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence. In addition to repeatedly echoing Russian propaganda narratives, including claims about alleged American biolabs in Ukraine, on the day of the full-scale invasion, she wrote that Putin’s concerns about NATO expansion were justified and blamed the Biden administration for the war. Now, Gabbard will be responsible for overseeing intelligence reports provided to Trump and shaping his worldview.

New footage has emerged of F-16 fighter aircraft in Ukrainian skies carrying AIM-120 and AIM-9M Sidewinder air-to-air missiles. Some commentators claim that air-dropped bombs can be seen in one of these videos, but due to the low image quality, we cannot confirm this. Another version suggests they are electronic warfare systems. If these claims are accurate, it would mean that F-16s are being used not only for air defense but also for supporting assault operations with strikes on ground targets.

Conscription, Mobilization and Contract Military Service

The Unified Military Register—the register of Russians subject to military service [digital system to identify citizens subject to military service and serve draft notices]—has likely become operational in Russia, as new evidence continues to emerge. According to the human rights organization Shkola Prizyvnika [Conscript School], a Moscow court recently reviewed a complaint from a conscript who was fined 30,000 rubles [$330] for failing to report in response to a notice to update his registration data. The young man claimed he never received a paper notice and did not see any notifications on the Unified Military Register website. However, the draft office presented a screenshot from the Unified Military Register as proof of the notice's delivery. The court upheld the fine as lawful. According to human rights advocates, the design of the table and its fields in the screenshot is fully consistent with the requirements of the Register Regulation.

Additionally, the Idite Lesom! [Flee through the woods/Get lost you all] Telegram channel reported that a conscript was prevented from leaving Russia at Sheremetyevo Airport. At border control, he was issued a notification stating that temporary restrictive measures, including a ban on leaving Russia, had been imposed on him.

It can be expected that with the beginning of the spring draft, at least in Moscow, the electronic register will be fully utilized. However, its readiness for nationwide implementation remains unclear. The operation of such a register could significantly streamline mobilization, yet there are still no clear signs that it is being prepared. Despite numerous videos showing wounded individuals on crutches and with other injuries being sent to forward positions, it seems likely that the General Staff and Putin are not fully informed of the dire personnel situation. It can be assumed that reports to senior leadership regularly overstate unit staffing levels and progress in recruiting volunteer fighters, similar to the practice of "advances on credit" that we described in the previous sitrep.

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