Sitrep for Jan. 20-22, 2025 (as of 10:30 a.m. UTC+3)
Frontline Situation Update
On the Vremivka salient, the Russian Armed Forces continue their efforts to gain control of Velyka Novosilka, as confirmed by both DeepState and Ukrainian military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets. Holding the village is no longer feasible for the Armed Forces of Ukraine as Russian forces have entered its southeastern part, making it necessary for the AFU to withdraw. It is worth noting that all roads into and out of Velyka Novosilka are under Russian control, forcing Ukrainian forces to retreat over rugged terrain.
In the remaining part of the salient near the suburbs of the town of Kurakhove, Ukrainian forces are engaged in rear-guard fighting. They have retaken positions north of the Vovcha River near Shevchenko to secure the use of the Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk highway for soldiers still positioned in the village of Dachne. We anticipate that this area will fall under Russian control within a month.
The terrain in the combat zone of the southern Donetsk region further complicates the defense of Velyka Novosilka and Kurakhove, as both are situated in low-lying areas. In contrast, Shevchenko is situated on higher ground, providing a more favorable defensive position compared to Zelenivka, which lies in the Sukhi Yaly River valley. Nevertheless, the AFU have managed to retake some positions near Shevchenko.
In the Pokrovsk direction, the RuAF are attempting to straighten the frontline. They are advancing on the western flank near the village of Slovianka, north of Shevchenko, as well as on the northeastern flank near the villages of Vozdvyzhenka and Yelyzavetivka. At this point, they have not yet resumed their advance toward the highway connecting the towns of Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka.
Topographic maps show that the town of Pokrovsk is situated on elevated terrain that extends to the town of Myrnohrad. While advancing on Myrnohrad from the village of Krasnyi Yar on the eastern flank of the Pokrovsk direction might seem logical, such a maneuver poses significant tactical risks for Russian forces. All roads leading to Myrnohrad are located in low-lying areas, making them easier for the AFU to target with artillery and drones from positions on higher ground. Consequently, the eastern flank of the Pokrovsk direction lies even farther east of Krasnyi Yar, with Russian forces advancing along elevated terrain between the villages of Yelyzavetivka and Vozdvyzhenka, stretching all the way from the village of Ocheretyne.
Although there have been no significant Russian advances in Chasiv Yar, the contested zone has slightly expanded in recent days. As previously noted, after capturing the town, Russian forces are expected to advance on Kostiantynivka. This is partly because attacking low-lying Kostiantynivka from the higher ground Chasiv Yar offers many advantages. The town could serve as a base for Russian artillery and provide a favorable location for observation posts.
Advancing on low-lying areas from higher terrain is typically easier. However, a swift Russian offensive on the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration remains unlikely. Despite Russia’s more favorable positions near Chasiv Yar, capturing the town is likely to require considerable time.
In recent days, there have been no significant changes along the frontline in the Kursk region.
A recently surfaced video features a captured Russian soldier recounting his experience in combat alongside North Korean soldiers. According to the soldier, an initial group of 60 to 70 Korean soldiers arrived at RuAF positions, followed a day later by about 15 mortar operators. North Korean soldiers reportedly operate under their own command, which is coordinated with the Russian side through an interpreter. However, the lack of interpreters at forward positions and nearby rear areas, coupled with the absence of prior unit cohesion training, has severely hampered communication. The language barrier is forcing troops to rely on hand gestures, which the soldier noted are often insufficient to convey necessary information. He also reported that these communication challenges have resulted in incidents of North Korean troops mistakenly firing on Russian forces, causing casualties but no serious consequences.
Additionally, the North Korean troops are equipped with their own evacuation vehicles, described as "Bukhanka vans and buggies"—the latter likely being DesertCross all-terrain vehicles. However, the soldier did not mention any armored vehicles among their equipment.
Another video has been released showing Russian soldiers preparing to deploy to forward positions. Notably, at least two of the soldiers are seen moving on crutches and appear likely to have been sent on their mission in that condition. It is unclear how such "fighters" could be used on the frontline. One might assume they are intended to guard a sector and engage in small arms fire rather than participate in assaults. However, it is evident that they are unfit for combat operations and should be in a hospital or undergoing rehabilitation instead.
Western Assistance
The Telegraph reports that ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration, Ukrainian officials warned the new American administration that forcing Ukraine to negotiate with Russia before it regained the upper-hand on the battlefield would be a catastrophic mistake. Fearing that the new administration might cut down military aid in case he refused to negotiate, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is working to emphasize that Ukraine needs time and support to escalate its campaign inside Russia. This strategy is exemplified by a series of massive strikes on Russian territory. According to a source in Ukraine’s intelligence service, Russia is usually able to restore its oil facilities "within a week" following attacks. However, the source noted that intensifying missile strikes in combination with tougher energy sanctions against Russia could strengthen Ukraine’s negotiating position and potentially lead Putin to reconsider his plans.
Ukrainian and Russian Strikes
Ukraine continues to strike oil depots and fuel tanks in Russia:
- On Jan. 17, drones attacked fuel tanks at an oil depot in Lyudinovo, Kaluga region;
- On Jan. 20 and Jan. 21, UAVs attacked an oil depot in Liski, Voronezh region;
- On the morning of Jan. 20, a drone damaged a tanker at the Gorbunov Aircraft Plant fuel and refueling complex in Kazan and a nearby building. Footage from Kazan showed the tail fins of a Pantsir-S1 surface-to-air missile. The presence of these scarce systems, best suited to counter drone attacks, in an area far from the frontline and Moscow and St. Petersburg raises questions;
- In the early hours of Jan. 21, UAVs attacked the Smolensk aircraft plant and an oil refinery in Yartsevo, Smolensk region.
We expect such Ukrainian drone attacks targeting Russian oil refining facilities to continue.
According to The Wall Street Journal, Trump has instructed Keith Kellogg, his Special Envoy to Ukraine, to end the Russia-Ukraine war within 100 days. Kellogg will be advising Trump during the negotiations, though it is unclear how much Trump needs his advice. John Bolton, the former National Security Advisor in Trump's first administration, says that Trump values Kellogg for never offering an opinion unless specifically asked. A Vietnam war veteran and former member of Trump’s first administration National Security Council, Kellogg has attended numerous Oval Office meetings though rarely took an active part in discussions. His former colleagues believe that he will most likely follow Trump’s instructions without proposing any alternatives. Kellogg has already supported providing Ukraine with powerful weapons, which he believes will strengthen Trump’s negotiating positions. However, Kellogg is unlikely to take part in actual negotiations with Russia. It is also suggested that his appointment is linked to the peace plan he developed in 2022, in which he criticized Biden’s administration for delays in providing military aid to Ukraine. The plan included a cease-fire, NATO’s rejection of Ukraine’s membership and a partial lifting of sanctions on Russia in exchange for a peace deal. At the time, the Kremlin rejected the proposal.
Trump signed an executive order suspending all US foreign aid programs for 90 days to review their compliance with his foreign policy. We assume this order does not apply to military aid programs for Ukraine.
The final vote in the US Senate to confirm Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense will take place at the end of the week.
The new authorities in Syria have terminated the agreement signed with the Russian company Stroytransgaz in 2019 to expand the port of Tartus as part of a 49-year lease. Under the investment contract, the Russian side had the right to manage the port and was required to invest over $500 million in its modernization. It is currently unclear whether the termination of this agreement means the end of the Russian base in Tartus or merely halts its planned expansion.
Conscription, Mobilization and Contract Military Service
Maksim Loktev, Moscow’s military commissar, announced that male residents who turn 17 in 2025 will be automatically registered for military service between Jan. 1 and March 31, with messages delivered via SMS and the city’s public services portal mos.ru. Upon reaching the age of 18, they will be summoned to the Unified Military Recruitment Center to determine their service fitness category and assess any possible eligibility for draft deferment.
The Movement of Conscientious Objectors, a human rights organization supporting those who refuse to perform military service, reports that draft offices in Moscow have already started sending such notifications. Conscripts-in-waiting have received letters from the Gosuslugi public services portal, confirming their registration, assigning a conscript ID and outlining their resulting obligations. In the Telegram chat of the human rights organization Shkola Prizyvnika [Conscript School], a user mentioned receiving instructions to undergo medical evaluations related to conscription just 10 minutes after receiving the notification from Gosuslugi. The required evaluations included appointments with a neurologist, traumatologist and radiologist. The Movement of Conscientious Objectors notes that these automated messages provide further evidence that the Unified Military Register, a digital system designed to track Russians subject to military service and deliver draft notices, is now operational. A source in a Moscow draft office told the Vyorstka media outlet that the system has effectively been in use since late 2024.
However, we believe that these reports are still insufficient to confirm the full-scale launch of the register. Moscow, as the most "digitized" region in Russia, often serves as a testing ground for new technologies and pilot projects. We will wait for updates from other regions before drawing conclusions.
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