Sitrep for Feb. 14-17, 2025 (as of 11 a.m. UTC+3)
Frontline Situation Update
The prospect of negotiations appears to have led to an intensification of fighting on multiple fronts, with both sides actively conducting offensive or counter-offensive operations. While these efforts do not always result in territorial gains, they have contributed to a rise in clashes. According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in the 24 hours from the morning of Feb. 15 to the morning of Feb. 16, there were 261 combat clashes, the highest number since the beginning of the year. In recent weeks, this figure had fluctuated around 100. We link this surge directly to the upcoming negotiations, as successful advances could strengthen the bargaining positions of both sides.
In the South Donetsk direction, attacks on Novosilka, which began last week, have continued. A column of four Russian armored vehicles, advancing under the cover of electronic warfare, managed to reach the outskirts of the village and deploy troops but failed to achieve significant success. Over the weekend, the Russian Armed Forces also made advances near the villages of Novoocheretuvate and Novyi Komar.
In the Novopavlivka (Kurakhove) direction, over the past few days, Russian forces have launched armored vehicle attacks on the villages of Kostiantynopil and Ulakly, managing to gain a foothold in Ulakly. The significance of this development lies in the fact that if Ukrainian forces are still positioned in the remaining part of the Kurakhove pocket, they are now effectively encircled and would only be able to retreat by shooting their way out. If the actual situation aligns with DeepState maps, this would suggest that the Ukrainian command has once again delayed issuing a withdrawal order. However, it is entirely possible that the frontline is more accurately depicted on maps from pro-Russian research projects. For example, the Slivochny Kapriz [Creamy Caprice] Telegram channel shows that the village of Dachne and the area south of it were captured 10 days ago. Additionally, the DIVGEN mapping project indicates that the entire pocket east of Ulakly is under Russian control. If these reports are accurate, Ukrainian forces are not at risk of being encircled, and instead, the RuAF are attempting to assault their positions in Kostiantynopil and Ulakly.
A video has been published showing Russian fiber-optic drones striking a Ukrainian tank along the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia highway near the village of Bahatyr. This once again demonstrates that when the frontline is within 5 to 7 km [3.1 to 4.3 mi] of a supply route, enemy drones actively disrupt its use, and even frequency jammers cannot effectively counter them.
In the Pokrovsk direction, following the Ukrainian counterattacks reported in our previous sitrep, no new changes have been observed.
In the Kursk region, fighting took place throughout the past week in the western part of the AFU bridgehead. Russian forces advanced toward the village of Sverdlikovo and recaptured some positions near Malaya Loknya, while the AFU managed to make slight advances west of the village. South of Mala Loknya, near the hamlet of Nikolsky, which is currently in the contested zone, a video was filmed showing a Russian column being destroyed by Ukrainian drones. The emotional reactions of pro-Russian bloggers to this failed assault were compiled by journalist and blogger Ivan Filippov. Notably, almost all the Russian vehicles in the footage were marked with Soviet flags. While different RuAF units have used Soviet flags since the start of the full-scale invasion, this is the first time such a large number have been documented in a single video. We believe this could be related to the media image of Colonel-General Aleksandr Lapin, the commander of the Group of Troops "North," which operates in the Kursk region.
Despite Russia's growing shortage of military vehicles, the RuAF are still sometimes able to assemble a full column for an assault. It is quite possible that all available reserves will now be deployed to maximize battlefield advantages ahead of upcoming negotiations.
Upcoming Peace TalksÂ
Conflicting statements from White House officials regarding the possible deployment of American troops to Ukraine continue to emerge. According to NBC News, citing four sources, the US would be ready to station troops in Ukraine to protect American interests in the event of a peace deal. However, other sources claim that American deployment in Ukraine is absolutely out of the question and such a decision could only be made by President Trump himself.
Meanwhile, Trump claimed that a meeting between Russian, US and Ukrainian representatives was set to take place on Feb. 14, at the Security Conference in Munich, although in reality, no Russian representatives had even received accreditation to attend the Conference.
It has also emerged that the US proposed that Volodymyr Zelenskyy sign a memorandum giving the US rights to develop certain Ukrainian natural resources as compensation for the American military aid already provided—but without any security guarantees. Apart from Ukraine's reluctance to agree to such an unfavorable deal, it is also worth noting that many of these resource deposits are located in Russian-occupied territories.
Bloomberg and Politico report the possibility of a meeting between US and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia, without any participation of Ukrainian representatives. According to the latest information, the meeting is set to take place on Feb. 18.
The Russian Foreign Ministry reported that a phone conversation took place between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, during which they discussed the mutual lifting of restrictions on diplomatic personnel.
Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, stated that while Europe’s interests would be considered, the EU would not be physically present at the negotiating table to avoid a repeat of the Minsk Agreements, implying that having too many participants had complicated reaching a ceasefire. At the same time, the US has asked European capitals to submit detailed proposals on arms supplies, peacekeeping forces and security measures they could offer Ukraine as part of security guarantees to help end the war.
French President Emmanuel Macron has invited the leaders of the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, Poland and Denmark to Brussels on Feb. 17 for an emergency summit on the situation in Ukraine and European security.
The future structure of NATO remains uncertain, but many expect it to undergo significant changes, potentially prompting Europe to develop new, more powerful armed forces. President Zelenskyy has called for the creation of an independent European army, with the AFU as its foundation. Given that the AFU is currently the most combat-experienced military force in Europe and has the greatest operational knowledge of the RuAF, its role in such a project could be crucial. However, the organization and funding of a supranational military structure remain unclear.
Western Assistance
The German automotive and arms manufacturer Rheinmetall has increased production of NATO-standard 155mm artillery shells by another 50,000 units, bringing the total annual output to 750,000.
Czech President Petr Pavel announced that Ukraine has received 1.6 million large-caliber rounds (over 100mm) as part of the Czech initiative. It is worth noting that 155mm artillery rounds accounted for approximately one-third of these supplies.
According to Reuters, citing sources, the United States is expected to urge European allies to purchase more US-made weapons for Ukraine rather than expanding their own production capacity.
It has also been reported that on Feb. 15, Norway joined the Drone Coalition.
The leading German defense technology company Helsing has announced a new contract to produce 6,000 HX-2 strike drones for Ukraine. This follows a previous order for 4,000 HF-1 strike drones, which are already being supplied to Ukraine in partnership with Ukrainian industry.
Strikes and Sabotage Acts
On Feb. 14, an explosion in Mykolaiv killed three members of the Ukrainian Demining Services and injured eight others. Ukrainian law enforcement has classified this incident as an act of terror. Authorities believe that a woman who brought a bag containing an improvised explosive device to a group of soldiers was recruited by Russian special services. It is worth noting that two weeks ago, explosions occurred near territorial centers of recruitment and social support in Rivne and Pavlohrad.
Radio Svoboda published a satellite image showing the aftermath of the strike on a care home in the town of Sudzha on Feb. 1. Ground-level photos revealed that the building's roof and facade were destroyed, and the satellite image clearly confirms that the explosion also blew off the roof of a neighboring building. Military analyst Yan Matveev believes this image supports the assessment that the impact came from the east, aligning with the theory of an airstrike using Russian air-dropped bombs. However, since the image does not clearly distinguish between actual damage and shadows, we refrain from drawing definitive conclusions.
Pro-Russian Telegram channels claim that the slowdown of Russian forces in the Pokrovsk direction is due to the high concentration of Ukrainian troops, which gives them a drone advantage and complicates logistics for units in forward positions. Meanwhile, in the Kupiansk direction in the Kharkiv region, the drone advantage is on the Russian side.
The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) has published a report on tactical developments in the war in Ukraine throughout 2024. The authors highlight several significant limitations of tactical UAVs:
- Between 60% and 80% of Ukrainian FPVs fail to reach their target, depending on the sector of the front and the skill of the operators.
- The presence of jammers and weather conditions impacts drone effectiveness.
- Most drones that do reach their targets cannot destroy armored vehicles with a single strike, requiring multiple successful hits.
- However, drones remain relatively effective against infantry.
Despite these limitations, tactical UAVs currently account for 60-70% of damaged and destroyed Russian systems. At the same time, many Ukrainian officers, including those commanding successful UAV units, emphasize the continued importance of artillery. The research community remains divided on whether UAVs can fully replace artillery, and opinions within our team also differ.
There is growing evidence of fiber-optic drones used for counter-battery operations, either to identify or strike enemy artillery positions. In some cases, a single UAV can destroy a piece of equipment, for example, if a drone strike causes a tank’s ammunition to detonate.
The use of these drones has become so widespread that fiber-optic cables are left hanging in certain forest lines, forming a kind of "web."
New photos have surfaced of the 170mm M1989 Koksan self-propelled howitzer in service with Russian forces. The location where the images were taken is unknown, though its use had previously been reported in the Lyman direction.
On Feb. 16, 2024, Alexei Navalny was murdered. Through his fight against injustice, he inspired us to create the Conflict Intelligence Team. We view our mission as striving for a just peace for Ukraine, which should serve as one of the steps toward a "beautiful Russia of the future."
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