Sitrep for Nov. 8-11, 2024 (as of 8 a.m. UTC+3)
Frontline Situation Update
The situation in the Kurakhove direction is deteriorating as the Russian Armed Forces attempt to encircle Kurakhove and its fortified surroundings. Advancing south of the town, they have formed a new pocket along the Sukhi Yaly River, placing the villages of Katerynivka, Antonivka, Yelyzavetivka, Illinka, Romanivka, Veselyi Hai and Hannivka in a vulnerable position. This pocket is about 6 to 7 km [4.3 to 4.9 mi] wide and can be easily covered with fire. Given the relatively fast pace of the Russian advance, the Armed Forces of Ukraine should consider withdrawing to avoid being encircled.
Russian forces are also continuing their efforts to advance northward from the village of Maksymivka toward the N-15 highway.
In the Pokrovsk direction, the RuAF are advancing from Selydove toward Pokrovsk along the highway connecting these towns.
In the Kursk region, where a new Russian counteroffensive recently began, fighting is ongoing near the villages of Pogrebki and Novoivanovka. The RuAF are advancing on the latter from the village of Zelyony Shlyakh, though they have made no significant gains. A video of an attack on Ukrainian positions shows armored personnel carriers deploying troops, which, in most cases, are destroyed by mines rather than by drones or anti-tank missiles. Notably, these APCs are not equipped with improvised cope cages, which is unusual in 2024. Typically, vehicles receive at least minimal upgrades for protection against enemy drones strikes once in near-front areas. In this case, it appears the APCs went straight into combat immediately after arriving at the frontline. Reportedly, the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade participated in this engagement.
There is still no clear footage confirming the involvement of North Korean troops in combat in the Kursk region. While some have suggested that a wounded soldier in a video filmed near Selydove might be North Korean, the poor video quality makes it impossible to confirm. Even if true, it cannot be ruled out that the soldier could be a Russian of Korean descent. Meanwhile, Western media have reported statements that fighting with North Koreans has either already begun or is expected to start soon.
On Nov. 7, The Economist released an article analyzing why, according to the authors, Volodymyr Zelenskyy might welcome a Trump victory. The article examines the approaches of Vice President-elect J.D. Vance and former CIA director and the 70th Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Vance previously suggested freezing the war along the current frontline without any security guarantees for Ukraine, barring NATO membership for at least 20 years, and with no significant concessions from Russia. Pompeo’s approach for a Trump "peace plan," as outlined in a July article co-authored with US lobbyist David Urban, proposes a radical strengthening of Ukraine. This would involve providing maximum military aid through Lend-Lease, lifting all restrictions, creating a $500 billion fund for the AFU—funded by allied countries with US contributions capped at 20%—and intensifying sanctions against Russia. The Economist speculates that Ukrainian leaders’ positive reaction could stem from their hope for the implementation of Pompeo’s approach.
It is worth noting that congratulating the future president of Ukraine’s main ally on their electoral victory is an essential diplomatic step. It is inconceivable that President Zelenskyy’s office would overlook such a significant event. Meanwhile, as of Nov. 9, it was announced that Nikki Haley and Mike Pompeo will not be part of Trump’s new administration, meaning Pompeo will not have the opportunity to implement his plans. However, this development does not yet allow for definitive conclusions on how Trump will approach resolving the war in Ukraine.
The Washington Post, citing its sources, reported on a phone call between Trump and Putin. It was previously reported that during the Valdai Forum, Putin congratulated Trump on his election victory. Since Trump has not yet assumed office, the conversation reportedly took place privately, without interpreters from the State Department, meaning its content cannot be independently verified. According to the publication’s sources, the future US president urged Putin not to escalate the situation in Ukraine and reminded him of the substantial presence of American troops in Europe. The article also mentions that, in other private conversations, Trump hinted he would support a temporary ceasefire agreement that would allow Russia to retain some of the captured territories. Although the article suggests that the Ukrainian side did not object to the call, the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs subsequently indicated that Kyiv was not informed about the conversation in advance. Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov later denied that the call ever took place.
Ukrainian and Russian Strikes
According to the General Staff of the AFU, in the early hours of Nov. 10, several kamikaze drones attacked ammunition depots in the city of Bryansk, located on the territory of what is believed to be the 120th GRAU [Main Missile and Artillery Directorate] arsenal, also referred to by the Ukrainian side as the 1060th logistics center. Eyewitness videos show the glow of a fire, but due to the large distance from the military facility, it is impossible to confirm whether secondary detonations occurred. The CyberBoroshno project has confirmed the geolocation of the fire on the territory of the ammunition depots.
On the morning of Nov. 10, the largest UAV attack on Moscow and the Moscow region since the beginning of the full-scale invasion took place. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, 34 Ukrainian drones were intercepted over the Moscow region. Regional authorities reported five casualties. Since none of the loitering munitions reached their intended targets, it is impossible to determine what those targets were.
On Nov. 9, Ukrainian drones attacked the Aleksinsky Chemical Plant in the Tula region, with explosions reported on the plant's premises. Eyewitness videos show orange smoke, indicating the release of nitrogen oxides, which is typical of a nitric acid spill. The plant processes wood pulp and, as of the late 2010s, produced smokeless powder. In 2023, the plant was sanctioned by the US and Europe due to its involvement in supplying Russian defense products.
In the early hours of Nov. 9, a cluster munition strike was sighted in the town of Shebekino, Belgorod region, with the explosions of its submunitions clearly audible in a video from the scene. According to Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov, one woman received a mine blast injury and barotrauma.
Russian strikes on Ukraine's regional centers continue. In the early hours of Nov. 9, numerous Russian loitering munitions attacked the city of Odesa and the Odesa region, resulting in one fatality and 13 injuries, including a child and a teenager. Residential buildings, vehicles and a private company's warehouse were damaged. In the early hours of Nov. 10, another attack occurred, injuring two more people and damaging residential buildings and infrastructure.
According to some reports, Russian forces have not used Kh-101 missiles for about two months. It is possible that the Russian Aerospace Forces are stockpiling them in preparation for massive attacks on energy infrastructure during the winter, with the goal of exacerbating Ukraine’s energy supply problems. Despite rumors of negotiations to halt strikes on energy infrastructure, the attacks have not ceased.
According to Wall Street Journal sources, in response to large-scale Russian missile and drone strikes, the US will urgently supply Ukraine with over 500 Patriot and NASAMS surface-to-air missiles in the coming weeks, enough to last through the end of the year. Additionally, on Nov. 8, it was announced that the Biden administration has finally authorized private US companies to service and repair American equipment in Ukraine, as the number of inoperable equipment units continues to grow and Ukrainian engineers struggle with repairs. It is worth noting that at the end of August, the US had prohibited sending American civilian specialists to Ukraine due to concerns they could be targeted by Russian strikes.
In the previous sitrep, we mentioned a post from the pro-Russian Telegram channel Fighterbomber [associated with the Russian Aerospace Force] about the loss of a Kamov Ka-52 (Hokum B) attack helicopter on Nov. 7. An obituary for its pilot, Ilya Noskov, has been published, though the circumstances of the incident remain unknown.
The VChK-OGPU Telegram channel has published documents and eyewitness accounts indicating that the death of Major General Pavel Klimenko on Nov. 6 was not caused by a Ukrainian FPV drone, as previously reported. Instead, it was the result of drunk driving—Klimenko reportedly lost control of his motorcycle at high speed and veered into a ditch, sustaining injuries from which he later died.
Authorities in the Voronezh region have increased the reward for those who assist in recruiting men willing to sign a contract with the MoD, from 50,000 rubles [$513] to 75,000 rubles [$770].
In the Irkutsk region, bonuses for teachers and educators will be redirected to military needs. The Lyudi Baikala [People of Baikal] independent media outlet reported that at the end of October, a conference call was held during which regional officials announced that part of the incentive payments would be withheld. Typically, employees receive individualized year-end bonuses of 10,000 rubles [$102] to 40,000 rubles [$410] or more. However, it appears that there are insufficient funds in the budget to cover these payments now.
The Southern District Military Court has sentenced Russian servicemen Stanislav Rau and Anton Sopov to life imprisonment for mass murders committed in occupied Volnovakha, Donetsk region, in October 2023. Rau and Sopov shot nine people in the early hours of Oct. 28 while the victims were asleep. Among those killed were the Kapkanets family, including two small children, their parents and several guests. Reports indicate that the murders were connected to the soldiers’ attempt to obtain alcohol. The court found Rau and Sopov guilty of illegal entry into a residence and murder of more than two persons, including minors, in a publicly dangerous manner motivated by hatred. Yet, they may well serve their sentence on the frontline instead of prison.
Join us for our weekly livestream on Wednesday, Nov. 13, where we will be raffling off Russian photographer Evgeny Feldman’s book Dreamers Against Cosmonauts for our viewers in Russia. Do not miss your chance to win—see you there!