Sitrep for Sept. 23-26, 2024 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)

Frontline Situation Update

Russian forces continue their assault on Vuhledar in the south of the Donetsk region. In recent days, they have made only minor advances, but fighting is already taking place within the city limits, as confirmed by geolocated footage. As is typical in such cases, the assault is accompanied by the near-total destruction of the city.

The importance of Vuhledar has long been due to its position as a "corner outpost." To the south and west of the town, the frontline runs east to west, almost parallel to the coast of the Sea of Azov, and to the east of the town it turns northward. Additionally, Vuhledar is located on elevated terrain, making it a key defensive post for the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the southern part of the region.

The loss of Vuhledar itself does not pose a direct threat to Kurakhove. However, if Ukrainian defenses in the settlements between Vuhledar and Kurakhove suddenly fail and collapse, Russian forces would gain the ability to advance on Kurakhove from two directions, not only from the east but also from the south. A reservoir protects the city from attacks from the north.

The Russian Armed Forces continue to expand their control over the bulge west of the village of Nevelske. They have also advanced west from the village of Memryk toward the road connecting the town of Selydove and the village of Tsukuryne.

There is a second video that has emerged in recent days showing Russian infantry fighting vehicles attacking the area, with no visible significant resistance from Ukrainian forces. Whether this is due to a lack of weaponry, personnel or other reasons is still unclear.

Although several months have passed since the intensification of mobilization in Ukraine, we have yet to see the anticipated improvement in personnel strength in the AFU. We expected this improvement to become evident by mid-September, and this was the basis for our assumption that the Kursk operation would have been more successful if it had begun a month later.

At the same time, the Ukrainian side has about 15 thousand men in the Kursk region, which, according to reports released last summer, is about half of the monthly recruitment (plus some in the Sumy region). Even if we proceed from Volodymyr Zelenskyy's statements that the supply of weapons from allies does not allow for the full arming of new brigades, the AFU command could form infantry units that would strengthen the Ukrainian defense in various directions as there is no shortage of small arms in Ukraine.

At the same time, we see that Russia is indeed successfully maintaining a high rate of recruitment of contract soldiers. This is having a significant impact on the rate of RuAF progress in Ukraine.

In the near future, we will continue to study this topic and will rethink our forecasts for the coming months in light of new data.

Zelenskyy spoke at a UN Security Council meeting, stating that the war in Ukraine must be finished, not frozen, emphasizing that Russia can only be "forced" into peace. We agree that freezing the conflict would be dangerous for Ukraine, as it would allow Russia to prepare for a new attack. This scenario also poses a threat to overall European security.

A source close to Zelenskyy told ABC News that the victory plan, which Zelenskyy intends to present to Biden and representatives of both parties, consists of five points. Its core includes specific figures and amounts of military aid to Ukraine, lifting restrictions on strikes on Russian territory, measures to support Ukraine’s economy, as well as certain diplomatic and political steps. According to the source, the plan does not propose concessions to Russia and is aimed at forcing the Kremlin to stop the war. From the available information, it is still unclear where the proposed Russian-Ukrainian border would be: along the current frontline, the 2022 line, or the 1991 borders. Forcing Russia to make any concessions would likely be a difficult task under the current circumstances.

Russian President’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded to Zelenskyy's speech, stating that it is impossible to force Russia into peace. We do not expect the forthcoming Russian counter-proposal to be any more realistic than previous ones, which called for the transfer to Russia not only of the occupied territories but also the currently unoccupied parts of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, as well as Ukraine's renunciation of joining the European Union and NATO.

Zelenskyy, along with several Democratic Party politicians, visited an artillery ammunition factory in Scranton, Pennsylvania. The visit provoked backlash from Trump and his Republican supporters, who viewed it as campaigning for Democrats, given that Scranton is President Joe Biden’s hometown and Pennsylvania is a key battleground state in the upcoming November presidential election.

Donald Trump criticized Zelenskyy, and Speaker of the House Mike Johnson demanded that Zelenskyy dismiss Ukraine’s ambassador to the U.S., Oksana Markarova, arguing that she should have dissuaded him from making such a trip. More moderate Republicans see nothing wrong with Zelenskyy’s visit to a factory supplying ammunition to Ukraine, helping to fend off Russian aggression.

Speaking at the UN General Assembly, UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy accused Russia of imperialism since Putin is trying to conquer Ukraine precisely in order to expand his own territory and influence. This important statement exposes Russia’s hypocrisy as when dealing with the Global South Russia often emphasizes the contrast between itself and the West, former colonial empires, yet in Ukraine it is actually pursuing an expansionist imperialist policy.

Western Assistance

The US Administration is set to announce a military aid plan for Ukraine worth over $8 billion, projected to last until the end of 2024. Nearly $6 billion of this amount will cover assistance coming directly from U.S. military stockpiles through the Presidential Drawdown Authority program. The actual shipments can take place in the coming months but since the fiscal year is coming to an end on Sept. 30 the President must notify the Congress of the specific items to be delivered by that date, after which no changes can take place.

An additional $2.4 billion will be allocated to American companies that will produce weapons as part of the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative. A new military aid package of $375 million was also announced. It will include:

Air-to-ground munitions (likely JSOW air-dropped bombs);
Ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
155mm and 105mm artillery ammunition;
Tube-launched, Optically tracked, Wire-guided (TOW) missiles;
Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems;
M1117 Armored Security Vehicles;
Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) Vehicles;
Light tactical vehicles;
Armored bridging systems;
Small arms;
Patrol boats;
Demolitions equipment and munitions;
Spare parts, ancillary equipment, services, training and transportation.

Vladimir Putin has proposed revisions to Russia’s nuclear deterrence doctrine. The updated version of the document would view an attack against Russia by any non-nuclear state, if supported or backed by a nuclear power, as a joint attack on the Russian Federation. A nuclear response could be triggered not only on the basis of “reliable information of a ballistic missile launch” targeting Russia or its allies, but also in the case of “reliable information regarding the launch of strategic and tactical aircraft, cruise missiles, drones, hypersonic or other airborne objects.” Experts caution that this shift in stance does not necessarily imply that any of these threats would trigger an immediate nuclear response. Instead, they view this as yet another signal to Western countries supplying arms to Ukraine.

A more serious threat to global security, experts warn, is Russia’s potential delivery of Yakhont (P-800 Oniks) anti-ship missiles to Yemen’s Houthi rebels. Reuters reports that Russian MoD officials and Houthi representatives recently held talks in Iran. These missiles could significantly enhance the Houthis’ ability to strike civilian vessels or military ships in the Red Sea, as well as land-base targets on the Arabian Peninsula. Saudi Arabia has reportedly expressed its concerns to Russia about this potential deal, according to Reuters sources.

If some kind of agreement is reached next year and the war in Ukraine is temporarily frozen, our team plans to investigate war crimes and prepare for the likely next escalation by monitoring the RuAF and collecting data on military personnel strength, new units, accumulated resources, new weapons and technologies. A large amount of information will allow us to more objectively assess the likelihood of new offensives.