Sitrep for Dec. 13-15, 2025 (as of 10:30 a.m. UTC+3)
Frontline Situation Update
Over the past two days, there have been no significant changes to the frontline. However, new information has emerged from several events described in the previous sitrep.
Previously, we reported on Ukrainian advances in the Kupiansk direction mainly without objective data. Recently, geolocated footage from the Khartiia Corps of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has appeared, confirming the mopping-up of Russian positions in the northern part of Kupiansk.
In the Lyman direction, according to researcher Playfra, the Russian Armed Forces advancing in the forests near Yampil and Lyman have encountered seasonal difficulties: the absence of foliage on trees makes it harder for them to hide from drones. However, there is no observable slowdown in the RuAF offensive, and the DeepState project continues to show new advances on their map.
In the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces decided to repeat a motorcycle-column assault on the village of Hryshyne. The previous attack on Dec. 10 failed—despite poor weather, the vehicles were detected by Ukrainian forces fairly quickly. Footage of the destruction of a new column on the same road appeared on Dec. 13. It is unclear what the RuAF were counting on this time.
Ukrainian and Russian Strikes
On Dec. 13, Russian forces again struck a Turkish vessel in the Black Sea with a Shahed drone—this time the target was a tanker carrying sunflower oil to Egypt. There were no casualties. Footage of the aftermath shows the characteristic engine of this type of UAV. The reason this particular vessel was chosen as a target remains unknown.
Footage has also emerged showing the aftermath of a Russian strike on the Turkish vessel Cenk T in the port of Chornomorsk on Dec. 12. Contrary to initial reports, the vessel was not carrying generators or spare parts for energy infrastructure but rather trucks loaded with tomatoes.
In the early hours of Dec. 13, Russia launched a massive combined air strike on Ukraine, leaving more than one million people without electricity. Infrastructure in the Odesa region was hit particularly hard: all traction substations in the city of Odesa were left without power, most of the city lost heating and water supply, and public transport stopped operating. According to the DTEK, as of daytime on Dec. 14, electricity supply had been restored to 185,000 households.
Conscription, Mobilization and Contract Military Service
Last week, Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council Dmitry Medvedev said that in 2025 more than 400,000 people signed contracts with Russia’s Ministry of Defense, and another 34,000 joined "volunteer fighter units." Unlike the MoD, the "volunteer fighter units" offer fixed-term contracts that do indeed end after the agreed period. However, they do not offer million-ruble payouts from the state.
At the same time, Vazhnyye Istorii [IStories, an independent Russian investigative media outlet], after analyzing federal budget expenditures for the first three quarters of 2025, found that 262,700 people received the one-time sign-up bonus for signing a contract with the MoD, which amounts to just under 30,000 people per month. According to Yanis Kluge's calculations, about 290,000 people signed contracts over the three quarters of 2025, or roughly 32,000 per month. Extrapolating these figures to the full year would yield 350,000 and 386,000 contract soldiers, respectively. Full-year budget expenditure data are expected at the end of January.
The head of Ukrainian military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, also published his figures on the replenishment of the Russian army this year, stating that there were 403,000 contract soldiers, exceeding the original plan for 2025. However, military analyst Michael Kofman clarified in response that 403,000 was the plan.
It is worth noting that in 2024, according to Dmitry Medvedev [Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council], 450,00 people signed contracts and 40,000 joined “volunteer fighter units.” According to federal budget data, between 374,000 and 407,000 people signed contracts last year; the discrepancy is due to changes in payment amounts. Based on all this data, one can conclude that while Medvedev overstates the number of new contract soldiers by 10-15%, his figures are not completely inaccurate.
Contrary to our previous expectations, there was no decline in recruitment to the Russian Armed Forces in 2025.
Nastoyashcheye Vremya [Current Time, an editorially independent US-funded Russian language media outlet] and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s Systema have drawn attention to Vladimir Putin’s Decree No. 821 of Nov. 5, 2025, which introduces additional requirements for foreign nationals seeking to obtain Russian citizenship or a residence permit. Under the new rules, most applicants must now provide either a contract with the MoD or the Ministry of Emergency Situations, or a certificate confirming unfitness for service or discharge from the RuAF or the Ministry of Emergency Situations. A small number of exceptions apply: those applying on the basis of studies, under the compatriots resettlement program, or as highly qualified specialists are not required to submit a contract or a certificate from the draft office. The decree does not apply to citizens of Belarus, nor to citizens of Ukraine, Kazakhstan or Moldova when they apply for a residence permit.
How Wounded Soldiers are being Saved in War
One of the most common causes of death among wounded individuals on the battlefield is massive blood loss, leading to hemorrhagic shock. Without restoration of blood volume, a person will die even if the wound has been mechanically compressed. The so-called trauma triad of death, the mechanism by which blood loss leads to death, consists of acidosis, hypothermia and coagulopathy.
When a person loses a significant amount of blood, their blood pressure drops, which deprives tissues and organs of oxygen. This results in hemorrhagic shock and, subsequently, multiple organ failure. To survive under these conditions, the body’s cells switch to anaerobic metabolism, producing energy without oxygen, which leads to the accumulation of lactic acid. Lactic acid, in turn, causes blood acidification, or metabolic acidosis. This condition is characterized by cardiac dysfunction, altered responses to certain medications, and impaired blood clotting. All of which further exacerbates blood loss and hypothermia.
In addition, hypothermia—or excessive cooling—develops, a condition in which body temperature falls below the level required to maintain normal metabolism and physiological function. Similar to acidosis, hypothermia reduces blood clotting ability and arterial pressure, worsens acidosis, suppresses the nervous system and metabolism, and ultimately brings death closer. Emergency services use rescue (thermal) blankets—covers made of reflective, metallized material—specifically to prevent hypothermia, which can develop rapidly, even in the summer.
Coagulopathy, a disorder of blood clotting, arises as a result of acidosis, hypothermia, and several other factors. At the same time, it further accelerates acidosis, increases blood loss, leads to hemorrhagic shock, and ultimately results in death. The risk of a fatal outcome rises sharply when approximately 30% of the circulating blood is lost.
​​In our previous sitrep, we noted that the saturation of the frontline with drones has effectively erased the "golden hour." It has become nearly impossible to evacuate a wounded soldier within the first 60 minutes after a severe injury, when the chances of survival are highest. In earlier wars, it was assumed that ambulances and helicopters could quickly retrieve the wounded from forward positions and transport them to stabilization points or directly to hospitals. In effect, the wounded "traveled to medicine." In the current war in Ukraine, neither vehicles nor helicopters can be used on the frontline. Even foot-based evacuation teams have become targets for drones.
This raises the question of whether drones could instead be used so that "medicine travels to the wounded" at forward positions. Performing a blood transfusion near the frontline is extremely difficult, not only because of the risk of infection. Donor blood requires strict storage conditions, with only a narrow acceptable temperature range. Another challenge is the lack of universality: the wounded soldier’s blood type must be determined, and a compatible match found. A mistake would trigger a hemolytic reaction and, in all likelihood, death. In addition, blood must be infused at a specific, variable pressure rather than at a constant rate. While this can be done without specialized equipment, it requires someone who can closely monitor the patient’s response and make the correct judgment about when to increase or slow the flow. An infusion that is too rapid can overload the body, leading to pulmonary edema and an increased risk of heart failure and death. An infusion that is too slow produces no meaningful effect. circulating blood volume remains insufficient, blood pressure stays low, the so-called lethal triad continues to develop, and the patient dies. A transfusion also requires a calm environment and some degree of shelter.
It is possible that, at some point, drones adapted to transport donor blood will be developed, and soldiers will be trained to perform transfusions under field conditions. In the course of this war, there are few other remaining ways to save the critically wounded.
Ukraine’s Third Assault Brigade has released video footage showing a plasma transfusion being carried out in the field. Plasma, a component of blood, improves clotting, helps maintain blood pressure and circulating volume, and slows the progression of acidosis. Donor plasma is easier to store than whole blood. Freeze-dried plasma can also be used; it can be kept at room temperature but must be reconstituted with sterile water before administration. However, because plasma transfusions do not restore the blood’s ability to carry oxygen, they do not fully save a patient’s life. Instead, they buy time, turning the "golden hour" into "several golden hours" long enough to transport the wounded to a hospital. The video also shows the use of the aforementioned protective thermal blanket.
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